The Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown dynasty conversation started tepidly but has since picked up massive steam throughout his progression in his young career. The WR1 has developed into an alpha target earner with a lucrative weekly upside.
Where should fantasy football managers slot him in the hierarchy of receivers in a dynasty format? Does the acquisition of Saquon Barkley impact Brown’s potential for 2024?
A.J. Brown’s Dynasty Outlook
It seems silly now, but Brown was the fourth receiver off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft.
He was a productive player at Ole Miss (consecutive seasons over 1,200 yards to end his career), but he entered the NFL with concerns over his speed and ability to adjust to off-target throws.
This is the beauty of dynasty fantasy football. While the initial scouting report wasn’t overwhelming (drafted behind Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry, and Deebo Samuel, selected alongside Mecole Hardman and JJ Arcega-Whiteside), savvy managers saw Brown make a pair of 50-yard catches in his first month as a pro and pounced.
He was raw, but the athletic tools at Brown’s disposal proved transferrable, and, if you acted quickly, you’d have a successful run at your WR1 position.
#Eagles WR AJ Brown has averaged 18.5 yards per reception on 1st down since the 2021 season, per @IE_NFL.
That number is sure to climb after this play 🔥#FlyEaglesFly
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2023
Brown will enter the 2024 season as a 27-year-old WR. He is reaching his prime as a part of a reliable offense that has finished inside the top 10 in both points and yards in his two seasons in town.
The per-catch production isn’t much different in Philadelphia than it was in Tennessee, but the sheer volume of opportunities has allowed Brown to evolve from a strong fantasy option to a true difference-maker.
- 2019-21 with TEN (43 games): 185 catches, 2,995 yards
- 2022-23 with PHI (34 games): 194 catches, 2,952 yards
The 6.2% decline in yards per catch that Brown has experienced since joining the Eagles isn’t nearly as impactful as his 32.6% spike in receptions per game, which is a good reminder that volume drives production at every turn.
A key fantasy football stat to know from 2023 builds on this idea of Brown’s role and how his development allows him to succeed in all sorts of matchups. Barkley’s addition might prove to be a net positive for Brown — any dip in target share figures to be offset by the attention defenses are forced to pay to Barkley in the horizontal pass game.
Of course, there’s some risk that comes with change for a player who has been successful, but I’m not overly concerned about the bottom line changing in a significant way for the Eagles’ ace receiver anytime soon.
Brown’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Brown land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the NFL Draft? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Brown sits in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
Should You Trade Brown in Dynasty?
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Brown is a part of my top-tier dynasty fantasy football receivers because he checks every box that I look for as a building block.
- Stability at the QB position
- Reasonable health track record
- Youth
- Development
- Big-play upside
Most managers are hesitant to lock in Brown among the very best in the game, due to some limitations of QB Jalen Hurts as a passer — his completion percentage regressed a touch this year, and he threw a career-high 15 interceptions. But an athletic profile like this that earns 28.7% of the receptions and 30.1% of the targets is almost bulletproof.
My ranking of Brown at the bottom of the top dynasty tier is the result of the week-to-week variance. He had the historic run of six straight games with 125+ yards early in the season, but he then totaled just 111 yards in November. The good far outweighs the bad, but if you’re considering trading for Brown, understand that there are valleys to consider.
If I’m trading for him, I’m more likely to offer up two impact pieces, as opposed to trying to pull off a 1-for-1 deal. Brown is seventh in my overall dynasty rankings, a spot on the board that makes a single-player deal tough to pull off.
MORE: Fantasy Football Updated WR Dynasty Rankings
I would have no hesitation in dealing a big-name running back with some tread on his tires (Barkley or Alvin Kamara, for example) with a starting-level receiver (Terry McLaurin and George Pickens would be two thoughts) for Brown.
As you can tell from my rankings, I’m not overly concerned about a strong secondary receiver when we’re talking about elite dynasty options. Fellow Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is a very good player, but Brown hasn’t struggled to return value consistently, and with his prime in front of him, I don’t expect to change.
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