![Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) greets Houston Texans quarterback CJ. Stroud (7) mid-field after the game of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]](https://statico.profootballnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/30160631/afc-south-playoff-scenarios-11-30-25-1920x1277.jpg "AFC South Playoff Scenarios: How Jaguars and Texans Have Thrown Division into Chaos")
The AFC South becoming a bloodbath of a division in the 2025 NFL season wasn’t something many could have predicted coming into the season. But after the conclusion of the Week 13 slate, that is exactly where things stood in a complicated playoff bracket in the AFC.
The Indianapolis Colts, after a spectacular start, have lost two straight games, while the Jacksonville Jaguars continued their steadily solid season. Both teams are 8-4, but the Houston Texans are not far behind at 7-5 after defeating the Indianapolis Colts. Where was the playoff race going, and who would sit atop the division when all was said and done?
Who Will Win the AFC South?
Taking on the Tennessee Titans, it was about as much of a guaranteed win as you can get in the NFL for the Jaguars. Led by a defense that was steadily building in stature coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes on PFSN’s Defense Impact, they held the Titans to just three points.
Even the offense, which had struggled throughout the year, saw one of its better outings, putting up 25 points in a runaway victory. Tying them at 8-4 with the Colts puts them in a logjam at the top of the AFC South, with their two games against each other still on the schedule.
However, the Texans have served as the actual gate crashers in this entire scenario. Starting the season 0-3, they have steadily climbed back up, winning seven of their last nine, including the previous four consecutively, to reach a 7-5 record.
What has made their current win streak even more impressive is the quality of competition, as they have wins over Jacksonville and the Buffalo Bills, both of which came without C.J. Stroud in the lineup. The second-ranked defense on DEFi has carried them to a potential playoff berth.
With one loss separating the three teams, it is impossible to find a legitimate gap between them. That is reflected in PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor as well, where the margin for error is slim for all three squads.
After Week 13, the Colts remain the AFC South favorites with a 41.5% chance to win the division. The Jaguars follow at 35%, while the Texans sit at 23.5%.
The three teams’ chances of making the playoffs now look like this:
- Colts: 83.7%
- Jaguars: 85.3%
- Texans: 67.5%
The true difference in their odds stems from the level of competition the three teams face, rather than their individual standing. Simply put, the AFC South has a legitimate chance to send three teams to the postseason for the first time since 2007.