We are now in the middle of the 2024 NFL season, which is when things really start to shake out with the playoff picture. We now have a good idea of where the AFC teams stand in our NFL Power Rankings and how the tiers of teams are shaping up in terms of floors and ceilings.
However, with the NFL’s variable nature, power ranking all 32 teams can be a tough task. Therefore, here at Pro Football Network, we have tried to remove the judgment element from the process by creating our PFN Power Ranking+ (PFN PR+) metric. This metric combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and then applies a level of correction for the strength of schedule a team has played.
Those are the top-level ingredients, but there’s much more depth that goes into creating the PFN PR+ numbers.
Is this system perfect? Absolutely not, and as we continue to research, we will continue tinkering with the elements that make up the PFN PR+. That may be at the Offense+ or Defense+ level, or it may be adding a fifth element that our analysis determines should be included in the overall rankings.
As things stand, this is the recipe that we are comfortable with entering Week 9. Accordingly, we’ve created our first official set of the PFN PR+ for the 2024 season.
1) Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) | 2 Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 5
- Defense+ Rank: 10
- Special Teams Rank: 26
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 20
The Kansas City Chiefs machine keeps rolling on, but they’ve done it without being particularly convincing. Five of Kansas City’s seven wins have been by less than a score, with just the 20th-hardest schedule to this date.
Using PFN’s expected win percentage, the Chiefs are currently 3.01 wins above expectation at this point, suggesting that there might be some regression to come.
The Chiefs’ schedule starts to get a little tougher in the coming weeks as they face the 12th-hardest remaining schedule this season. They’ve caught a little bit of a break facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but then the difficulty ramps up with games against the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills in the following weeks.
It’s impressive that the Chiefs have swept to a 7-0 record without ever truly looking dominant. We know this team has the ability to turn it on when it really matters, which will make them hard to beat.
Under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City has become a hardened and experienced winner. If they get through the next three weeks unscathed, we start to hear whispers about potentially going 17-0.
2) Baltimore Ravens (5-3) | 5 Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams Rank: 27
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 13
There’s no denying that Sunday was an ugly result for the Baltimore Ravens, but it’s worth remembering that Kyle Hamilton dropped an easy game-winning pick.
That doesn’t reduce the concern that Baltimore’s defense allowed 29 points to Jameis Winston and a relatively low-key Cleveland Browns offense. It’s the sixth time the Ravens have allowed 25+ points this season, including 23+ in the last four.
The Ravens rank 24th in Defense+, 26th in defensive EPA per play, and 26th in points allowed. The one saving grace is that they are a top-12 team defensively inside the red zone.
When you have the most explosive offense and the best quarterback in the league this year, stopping teams from finding the end zone when inside your 20-yard line will always give you a great chance.
The Ravens’ schedule is tough coming up, ranking fifth-hardest across the entire slate. It begins with the Broncos this week. There is very little letup in this schedule the rest of the way, and Baltimore’s Week 11 and Week 16 games with the Steelers loom large as potential division deciders.
3) Buffalo Bills (6-2) | 6 Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 12
- Special Teams Rank: 28
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 23
The Bills are sitting pretty in the AFC at 6-2. Their offense is among the elite, the defense is good, and Buffalo has the 10th-easiest remaining schedule coming up.
With a win this week, the Bills will ensure they have at least a four-game lead over anyone else in the division with nine weeks remaining. They would also be 3-0 in the division, having yet to play the New England Patriots.
Those two road losses to the Ravens and Houston Texans are still a concern because they are the best teams Buffalo has faced on the road this year. The Bills’ next real road test will be in Detroit in Week 15, with opportunities to make statements when they host the Chiefs and 49ers in Weeks 11 and 13, either side of their bye.
4) Denver Broncos (5-3) | 7 Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 24
- Defense+ Rank: 1
- Special Teams Rank: 4
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 29
Despite the metrics telling us that the Broncos are the seventh-best team in the league through Week 8, there is still an expectation that this could be a house of cards ready to crumble. Part of that is that Denver has played the fourth-easiest schedule to this point, with the eighth-easiest schedule in the remaining weeks.
Have a day, rook. 👏 pic.twitter.com/hYTDHh9751
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos)
The real test for Denver starts this week as they travel to Baltimore before heading to Kansas City in Week 10. Those will be the biggest overall tests the Broncos have faced to date.
Still, it’s worth noting that their defense did hold the Buccaneers’ third-ranked offense to just seven points in Week 3. It will be intriguing to see if Denver can do the same to Baltimore and Kansas City.
We always knew the Broncos would need to rely on their defense and special teams to carry their offense this year, and they’ve done so superbly. Meanwhile, the offense has managed to be league-average inside the red zone, which is helping them hold their own, having scored 25+ points four times this year.
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) | 10th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 20
- Defense+ Rank: 6
- Special Teams Rank: 2
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 27
Monday night was far from a comprehensive performance for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they head into their bye week at 6-2 and in control of the AFC North. The hard work is only just beginning for the Steelers, who have played the sixth-easiest schedule to date but will face the sixth-hardest after their bye — including all six games against their divisional rivals.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been very good, and it’s given the offense the scope to be inconsistent but still result in wins more often than not. Week 8 was just the Steelers’ third win of the season by one score or less, meaning they’ve had three dominant wins; both of their losses have been by a combined six points.
6) Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) | 11th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 25
- Defense+ Rank: 4
- Special Teams Rank: 8
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 24
The Los Angeles Chargers have bounced around these power rankings over the first half of the season, but they appear to be emerging as a legitimate contender in the AFC playoff picture. The Chargers have done it by relying on their defense but desperately need the offense to come to the party in the second half of the season.
While the Chargers may look like a product of a relatively easy schedule to this point, they have the sixth-easiest schedule going forward. That puts them in a great position to push for a Wild Card spot; there are only two teams within a game of them in the current playoff picture.
7) Houston Texans (6-2) | 12th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 18
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams Rank: 23
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 18
The Houston Texans took a huge stride toward winning the AFC South in Week 8. Completing the sweep over the Indianapolis Colts means they are now essentially 2.5 games ahead of their main division rivals.
With just nine games to play, that is a strong position to be in. However, the Texans will need to be better, especially on offense in the second half.
Houston’s offense has been league-average so far and has relied on the defense to keep them in games. The Texans have only scored more than 24 points once since Week 2, and that lack of ability to score has meant that they have won all but one of their games by less than a score.
Part of the problem has been that C.J. Stroud has been average this year, ranking 18th with a C+ grade.
8) New York Jets (2-6) | 16th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 17
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams Rank: 32
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 15
The New York Jets are intriguing, sitting in the middle of our power rankings, given that they are 2-6 and just lost to the Patriots. However, the underlying numbers suggest that this isn’t a bad team.
New York’s defense has been on a downward trend since Robert Saleh’s departure. That is perhaps an even bigger concern than the offensive ranking, which has only been 17th to this point.
The Jets’ remaining schedule ranks as the seventh-easiest in the NFL, but they’ve run themselves out of chances at this point. At most, they can realistically afford to lose two more games \if they want to make the playoffs. However, as you look down that schedule, that is not an unreasonable ask — with only the Bills ranking inside the top 10 of these rankings.
9) Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) | 22nd Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 7
- Defense+ Rank: 29
- Special Teams Rank: 12
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 22
Week 8 proved what our numbers have shown this season — the Bengals are distinctly a below-average team and mirror their 3-5 record. Wins over the Panthers, Browns, and Giants prove little about their ability to win games against better competition.
Cincinnati’s schedule remains middling, but to get to nine or 10 wins, the Bengals will have to put together some better quality wins. The offense can get them there, but the defense is a real problem, having allowed over 35 points on three occasions this year and 24+ on five occasions.
10) Indianapolis Colts (4-4) | 23rd Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 19
- Defense+ Rank: 22
- Special Teams Rank: 15
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 11
It’s somewhat impressive that the Colts are 4-4 and only two games back in the division. Anthony Richardson is playing as one of the worst quarterbacks this year, but somehow the team is winning despite that and the defense ranking in the bottom half.
To be where they are with their level of performance is both impressive and concerning when we look ahead.
The range of outcomes for the Colts is as wide as the range for Richardson himself. If they didn’t win another game this year, you would likely not bat an eyelid. But equally, if they end up 10-7 and in the playoffs, it also wouldn’t be all that stunning.
Most likely, this is an 8-9 or 9-8 team that stays in the playoff picture until the last few weeks without ever being that exciting.
11) Tennessee Titans (1-6) | 26th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 31
- Defense+ Rank: 15
- Special Teams Rank: 31
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 3
All the talk entering Week 8 was how the Tennessee Titans’ defense had been a bright spot, but then they got boat-raced by the Detroit Lions.
While you can forgive a defense for having trouble with the Lions’ offense, this performance was the latest in a line of worsening performances from the Titans’ defense. It’s now merely a league-average unit, incapable of protecting a poor offense.
It has been a particularly brutal start for Tennessee. Things will get easier, but not to the point where we should consider the Titans a playoff contender in any form.
The biggest question going forward should be whether they address the quarterback position in the 2025 NFL Draft, as they very well could be picking in the top five.
12) Cleveland Browns (2-6) | 27th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 32
- Defense+ Rank: 9
- Special Teams Rank: 3
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 26
It was a special win for the Browns in Week 8 for many reasons, not least because this fan base had been clamoring for Jameis Winston for a while now.
There was also a lot of emotion around the stadium following the passing of Jim Donovan. Whether that inspired the players is hard to judge, but it certainly added to the feeling around the game.
"You can't even write stories this good, folks"
It was an emotional finish in the radio booth for @NathanZegura and @AndrewSiciliano 📻 pic.twitter.com/Ltpe92dCjH
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns)
Cleveland’s offense has weighed this team down, but Winston gave them the boost they needed. They’re a long way from being a challenger, but the Browns’ defense and special teams are good; maybe the offense could now be close to league average.
The schedule is tough going forward, ranking as the fourth-hardest, which will be tough to overcome.
13) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) | 28th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 16
- Defense+ Rank: 30
- Special Teams Rank: 6
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 16
It might have been the Jacksonville Jaguars’ sixth loss in Week 8, but the fact that they were able to compete with the Packers to that level is promising. A 30-27 result very much underlines what Jacksonville has been this year, with the offense being fine but the defense being a problem.
Trevor Lawrence has been better in recent weeks, and the Jaguars will need that to continue to have any shot of making a run. The issue is that the remaining schedule ranks 11th-toughest the rest of the way, and there isn’t much room for error at this point.
The Jaguars have struggled in the red zone both offensively and defensively, which has been their undoing, especially offensively, where they rank 31st in points per game. Get better in those crucial spots and maybe Jacksonville has a chance at a Wild Card spot.
14) Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) | 29th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 21
- Special Teams Rank: 11
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 8
We saw the Raiders throw everything at the Chiefs in Week 8, but it wasn’t enough because they’re simply not very good overall. The schedule has been really tough and will remain the 15th-toughest the rest of the way.
With Gardner Minshew II back at quarterback and a lack of quality playmakers, it’s hard to see how Vegas’ offense improves.
The defense is below league average despite having a star in Maxx Crosby and a defensive-minded coach, which is a huge shame. There are so many holes on the Raiders’ roster right now that the future looks pretty bleak.
15) Miami Dolphins (2-5) | 30th Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 26
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams Rank: 29
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 32
We saw some signs of life for the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, but ultimately, they fell short once again. This time, it was the defense that really let them down; having entered the week ranked in the top 10, they finished it close to the league average.
Chances are the strong performances on defense were a product of a weak schedule to enter the year. If so, Miami’s offense needs to hit overdrive.
Having a league-average defense doesn’t preclude you from challenging for the playoffs, but it means you need a top-10 offense at the very least. The Dolphins’ offense was good this week, ranking second among all teams, which is a promising sign.
Miami should only rise through these rankings in the coming weeks, but the ceiling is the uncertainty. It’s not too late to make a run for the playoffs, and the Dolphins face the 13th-easiest remaining schedule, so they have an outside chance of getting to 10-7 or 9-8.
The margin of error is slim; they cannot afford too many more losses like Sunday.
16) New England Patriots (2-6) | 31st Overall
- Offense+ Rank: 30
- Defense+ Rank: 28
- Special Teams Rank: 1
- SOS Rank Through Week 8: 19
A win over the Jets in Week 8 doesn’t change anything for the Patriots. They remain in a tier of their own in our power rankings.
New England isn’t as bad as Carolina because being that bad is a special level reserved just for the Panthers, but the Patriots are still a bad team overall. They rank in the bottom five on both sides of the ball, and that’s not likely to change any time soon.
