The AFC East seemed to be a two-team race between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, as both teams had lost two games heading into Week 10; the only difference was that Buffalo had already used its bye week. However, Week 10 did not go as the Bills had planned, as the Miami Dolphins shut them out in the first half and QB Josh Allen lost to QB Tua Tagovailoa for the second time in his career.
Combined with a Patriots win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bills’ chances of winning the division dropped as they fell to a 6-3 record. Let’s see how the loss affected the AFC East playoff race.
Buffalo Bills Week 10 Loss to Miami Dolphins Shakes Up AFC East Playoffs
Is Miami back? That’s how they must be feeling after a massive 30-13 win over the Bills in Week 10 of the 2025 NFL Season. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa finally got his second win over a Josh Allen-led squad, improving his overall record to 2-9. Not the greatest.
The win, unfortunately, doesn’t move the needle much for the Dolphins. Before Week 10, they had a .5% chance of making the playoffs. They now have a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFSN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM). If anything, the win hurt the Dolphins as their chances of securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft dropped from 8% to 2.7%.
DIVISIONAL DUB 🐬 pic.twitter.com/B3ST0fQVTR
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 9, 2025
The bigger shock was how the loss affected the Bills’ chances. Before Week 10, the Bills had a 94.8% chance of making the playoffs, along with a 49.8% chance of winning the AFC East. Following the surprising loss to Miami, the Bills’ chances of making the playoffs dropped to 83.4%, with their chances of winning the AFC East dropping to 22.9%. Buffalo also saw their chances of winning the Super Bowl get cut practically in half, falling to 5.4% from 10%.
So if the Bills lost so much, who gained in their loss? The New England Patriots had a huge win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, proving once again to be the AFC powerhouse they’ve shown themselves to be through the first nine weeks.
Mike Vrabel and the Patriots saw their chances of making the playoffs jump from 94% to 97.3%. More importantly, their chances of locking up the AFC East jumped from 50.1% to 77% with the win and the Bills’ loss. New England and Buffalo still have a showdown in Week 15, and after the Bills’ loss to Miami, it becomes even more critical.
