Veteran wide receivers oftentimes don’t generate the most buzz amongst your league mates when you select them during your fantasy football draft. Yet, Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen proved he still had plenty left in the tank with a WR17 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats last year.
Can fantasy managers rely on one more productive year from Thielen in 2024?
Adam Thielen’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 143.6
- Receptions: 56.0
- Receiving Yards: 575.7
- Receiving TDs: 5.0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Thielen This Year?
Thielen’s 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and four scores in one of the league’s worst passing offenses was an outstanding year for a 32-year-old receiver.
Was his fantasy production a result of the lack of better options in the offense? Possibly, but I’d rather give Thielen his props for showing that he still has what it takes to contribute to an NFL passing attack well past his prime.
The Panthers managed to hide Thielen’s declining speed and acceleration by putting him in the slot for 64% of his snaps last year, which is the only path I see Thielen still having to produce a top-40 fantasy season at the position this year.
Another sign that Thielen isn’t quite the elite producer he has been in the past is evident by just 39.7% of his fantasy points coming against man coverage, which speaks to his inconsistent ability to generate ample separation.
What hurts his chances of an encore performance or generating a top-40 finish most is the fact the organization added a plethora of new skill position players this offseason.
Carolina drafted Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Jonathon Brooks back in April and they acquired Diontae Johnson via trade earlier this offseason in an attempt to help Bryce Young. This isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for Thielen or Jonathan Mingo retaining their leading roles in this passing attack.
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Could he still see a higher snap share than we are expecting early in the year while these younger players are being eased into the offense? Absolutely. Yet, this team is unlikely to be in the playoff picture once November rolls around, which makes me believe Thielen will likely see his role diminish entering the fantasy playoffs.
Thielen’s ADP at No. 164 overall in the 14th round as the WR62 off the board suggests that fantasy managers weren’t convinced by him exceeding fantasy expectations by a considerable margin last season. For some additional context, he is currently being drafted behind Adonai Mitchell, Gabe Davis, and Brandin Cooks.
Quite frankly, the numerous additions made to both the receiver and tight end rooms this offseason make this substandard Panthers passing offense far more crowded than it was a year ago when Thielen was the clear-cut go-to pass catcher for Young.
Johnson, Legette, Mingo, Sanders, and even Brooks (once he is fully up to speed) all figure to factor into this passing game in 2024.
Unfortunately, contending for the second or third-highest target share in this offense simply doesn’t give fantasy managers enough optimism to project a top-40 season from the productive veteran receiver entering his 12th year in the NFL.