Adam Thielen Dynasty Profile: Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Adam Thielen.

Adam Thielen’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

I was pretty high on Thielen entering the 2022 season. Despite being 32 years old, I thought Thielen was undervalued, given his WR2 role in a high-powered offense. I was wrong — Thielen is done.

Given his UDFA status and late breakout, Thielen is not as “old” as your typical 32-year-old WR. But father time remains undefeated, and it looks like he’s claimed Thielen.

In 2022, Thielen posted the worst season of his career. He averaged 10.6 ppg, catching 70 of 107 targets for 716 yards and six touchdowns. If not for the six TDs, he would’ve been even worse than his mid-WR4 finish.

Thielen regressed considerably in several key areas. His target share dipped to 17%. He was targeted on just 17.2% of his routes run, outside the top 75. Thielen’s average depth of target has been at 9.9 for two consecutive years after hovering around 12 during his prime. He wasn’t able to get open as easily or as much as he used to.

MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver

Thielen is signed through 2024, when he’ll be 35 years old. I don’t see any world where he plays out the remainder of his contract.

It would not surprise me at all if the Vikings cut Thielen ahead of the upcoming season. If not, 2023 will almost certainly be his final year with the team. Minnesota has a realistic out now, but it gets even easier to release him in 2024.

Thielen will either latch on as a role player similar to what T.Y. Hilton did with the Cowboys last season, or he’ll retire. Either way, his time with the Vikings is nearing its end.

Similarly, Thielen’s time as a fantasy-relevant player is also nearing its end. While 10.6 ppg is still decent, WR4s belong on fantasy benches. It’s possible Thielen doesn’t maintain that level of production and will decline even further in 2023.

3/20 Update: The Vikings did, in fact, cut Thielen. Obviously, that was no surprise.

He wound up signing with the Panthers. All things considered, this is about as good of a landing spot as we could’ve hoped for.

Thielen not only joins the most barren wide receiver depth chart in the NFL, but will get to provide the Panthers’ rookie starting quarterback with a veteran presence. In terms of quality of role, his best shot at starting and possibly returning fantasy value is on the Panthers.

Adam Thielen’s Fantasy Ranking

When the Vikings drafted Justin Jefferson, Thielen was still the WR1. After one year, he ceded that role to Jefferson, settling in as a nice WR2. Thielen was set to possibly fall down to the WR3 this season. Fortunately for him, he will now almost certainly be a starter with the Panthers.

Even so, Thielen’s football days are numbered. If you have Thielen, you’re just riding out the rest of his career until you decide he’s no longer worth a spot on your roster.

We have Thielen as the WR64 (No. 174 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. As I indicated above, I’m done with Thielen. I love the guy and hope he proves me wrong, but this awesome UDFA story is just about at its end. There’s no reason to select him in dynasty startup drafts.

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