New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is back from his Achilles injury and ready to prove that he still has gas in the tank for a franchise that is starved for success. The four-time MVP wasn’t a fantasy football asset in his last season with the Green Bay Packers (QB21 on a per-game basis), but can he return to glory?
Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 272
- Passing Yards: 3,457
- Passing TDs: 28
- Interceptions: 7
- Rushing Yards: 130
- Rushing TDs: 3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Rodgers This Year?
Ask any group of people who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and you’re likely to get at least one “Jets” response. That answer is clearly based on the upgrade at the quarterback position, but that optimism isn’t carrying over to fantasy, where Rodgers isn’t consistently being drafted.
As a rookie in 2022, Garrett Wilson put up 1,103 yards and 4 TDs with Zach Wilson, Chris Streveler, Mike White, & Joe Flacco throwing him the ball 🤮
What kind of numbers will he put up with Aaron Rodgers? pic.twitter.com/dF0kX96YPt
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) August 29, 2023
Part of that is due to the depth of the position. Deshaun Watson is the only player in NFL history with a season that featured 4,800 passing yards and 400 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield joined Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud as the only quarterbacks with 4,000 passing yards and no more than 10 interceptions in 2023. Both Watson and Mayfield are on the same “rarely drafted but interesting” tier as Rodgers.
There is a level of physical decline to worry about. Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off of a significant injury that happened less than 12 months ago.
There’s also an offensive connection component to fret about. Rodgers has four snaps of experience with this franchise, one that has two receivers who are new to the roster and a pair of star skill players looking to continue their ascent.
And yet, it might be something that Rodgers has no control over that ruins his chances of being an asset for fantasy managers in 2024.
- 19th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 26th
- 30th
Those are the per-play defensive ranks for quarterbacks who finished QB11-15 last season. That’s the spot in rankings where we are labeling Rodgers as a best-case scenario for this year. In short, these quarterbacks were able to produce fringy value because their team put them in a position where they had to.
The Jets were the top-ranked defense in that metric last season — which wherein lies the problem.
If Rodgers helps New York get over this hump and make the playoffs, it won’t be because he put up video-game numbers. It’ll be the result of him extending drives and milking clock.
This isn’t a team built to win games 30-27. Rodgers has a slow cadence to his game, and with an elite defense on the other end, the Jets’ goal is to make this a race to 20 points.
That simply isn’t going to pay the fantasy bills.
That’s not to say that there won’t be moments. There will be. I’d take the “over” on 1.0 top-10 weekly finish for Rodgers at the position — his number from 2022.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football QB Sleepers
But I think the industry has this labeled correctly in believing there will be more peaks than valleys. Maybe the strong performances come at a good time (nice weather games in Miami and Jacksonville in Weeks 14-15), but will you be comfortable in trusting Rodgers with your season in his hands?
My guess is no. Get your exposure in DFS if you must. I like Mike Williams as a sleeper this season, and that is how I’m betting on Rodgers. If I plug in Williams as my Flex in a given week and he struggles, my team can overcome it. Doing that when you get a dud performance from a onesie position is tough, which is why I’m not interested in a Rodgers stash in 1QB formats.
A Superflex setting is different. Every starting quarterback is viable in Superflex, so your hand is forced a bit. As a middling QB2 (ADP: QB18), you could do worse. But you need to enter the season with measured expectations. It’s easy to see the name “Aaron Rodgers” buried like this in the ADP charts and get excited.
Be careful. In fact, that is a lesson to keep in mind across the board. Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett — there are some “names” that inspire more confidence than their realistic projections suggest.