Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Outlook: Does His Value Decline With the Vikings?

Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones has been one of the more efficient running backs during his seven NFL seasons (5.0 yards per carry), but during the end of his tenure in Green Bay, his scoring rate declined in a significant way.

Does Jones have another strong season left in him as he fills the bell-cow role in Minnesota? Or are fantasy football managers being asked to pay a tax for a name that now outweighs his expected stat line?

Aaron Jones’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast

Entering his age-29 season, Jones is starting a new chapter of his career not only with a new team but also with an influx offense. The Vikings know what they have with Justin Jefferson, but outside of the highest-paid non-QB in the sport’s history, there are questions aplenty.

1) Will they get average QB play from Sam Darnold?
2) How effective will T.J. Hockenson be?
3) Can Jordan Addison take a big step forward?

In evaluating fantasy profiles, the impact of offensive environment is high on the list, and with this many questions, it’s hard to be overly optimistic on Jones.

Even as a part of a viable offense, Jones’ scoring numbers are worrisome. After rushing for at least eight touchdowns in three straight seasons, he’s totaled eight scores on the ground over the past three seasons (43 games played).

Jones missed a career-high six games a season ago, and the explosive plays seem to be vanishing from his profile — two things that don’t usually correct with time in the second half of a career.

Percentage of carries gaining 20+ yards

• 2020: 3.0%
• 2021: 2.9%
• 2022: 2.8%
• 2023: 2.1% (three on 142 carries)

That said, it’s not all doom and gloom. Jones has been good for roughly three catches per game for the past five seasons, which feels destined to his path to returning value this season.

Jones is a fluid route runner and has the benefit of experience when it comes to finding openings in the defense. He’s Minnesota’s unquestioned three-down back. Ty Chandler had 21 catches in 17 games last season, which was more receptions than he had in any of his five collegiate seasons. And with uncertainty under center, those dump-offs figure to be as important as ever.

Even with a seemingly elevated floor, the lack of a ceiling wins out in my eyes and makes Jones a player I’m not going to be clicking very much in the late stages of the fifth round. I don’t mind that spot when it comes to the RB hierarchy (in the same neighborhood as Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris), but at this point in the draft, I’m simply not addressing the position.

Terry McLaurin and Jayden Reed are a pair of wide receivers hovering around Jones’ ADP, two players I’m above market on and will be selecting with regularity.

Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram are also in this range, both being in the TE tier that interests me if I elect not to wait until the end to address the position.

Jones is a part of my personal RB dead zone. In the right build (WR-heavy with a Tier 1 QB or TE), the stable role can be appealing and a wise pick. That’s not a build I enter most draft rooms targeting, but every good fantasy manager needs to be able to react to the draft room and be prepared to adjust.

Aaron Jones’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook

• Fantasy points per game: 14.4
• Rushing Yards: 1,024
• Rush TDs: 3.2
• Receptions: 55
• Receiving Yards: 404
• Receiving TDs: 4.5

These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.