Hitting on late-round value is important to fantasy football success, but it’s arguably more important to avoid drafting underperforming players in the early rounds. Sure, injuries happen frequently enough in fantasy to derail a season, but there are plenty of players who are pushed up draft boards due to poor process or faulty logic that do far more damage.
Here are my early-round fantasy football bust candidates to avoid heading into the 2025 season.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow was far from a sure thing entering 2024. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback was coming off a wrist injury that left many wondering if he could regain his previous form.
Burrow put that notion to bed quickly, setting career highs in completion percentage (70.6%), passing yards (4,918), and touchdowns (43) — finishing as the QB3 in fantasy, averaging 21.9 points per game.
The Bengals are set to return their major players on offense after signing both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to extensions this offseason. So, how can Burrow appear in an article about early-round busts?
In fantasy, rushing production is typically synonymous with success at the QB position. And Burrow offers very little rushing upside.
Year over year, we see pocket-passing quarterbacks have plenty of volatility, especially when it comes to passing touchdowns. Since that is the main source of their production, it can have a dramatic impact on their yearly ceiling.
Burrow is a fantastic player, but betting on him to finish as the QB5 or above in fantasy, given his lack of rushing floor, is a dangerous bet to make.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Many were surprised when the Green Bay Packers opted to sign Josh Jacobs and release Aaron Jones before the 2024 season. However, Jacobs quickly showed why the team valued him so highly.
The veteran running back played in all 17 games in 2024, racking up 301 carries for 1,329 yards and a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. He also added 36 receptions for 342 yards and a receiving score, finishing as the RB8 in PPR scoring at 17.2 fantasy ppg.
Early ADP shows that fantasy managers are buying into Jacobs in 2025 with an RB10 price tag (ADP: 26.0). While that is understandable, it may be difficult for Jacobs to replicate his strong 2024 again.
There have been two other occasions where Jacobs has handled over 300 touches in a season before 2024. After each of them, he either missed time with an injury or saw a dip in his efficiency.
Predicting injuries is nearly impossible in football, but Jacobs hasn’t been a player with the cleanest bill of health. Additionally, he benefited in 2024 from an injury that kept third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd off the field.
Lloyd is an explosive RB who was drafted to form a tandem with Jacobs. Without him, the Packers were forced to try and get productive carries from UDFA running backs Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks.
Jacobs proved just how essential he is to the Packers’ offense functioning at a high level. For Green Bay to take the next step as a team, though, it’s in the team’s best interest to manage his workload more effectively.
Don’t be surprised if Jacobs fails to reach the lofty standards that a strong 2024 has placed on him in 2025 drafts.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Many fantasy managers (myself included) warned about Kyren Williams failing to live up to the high expectations placed upon him before the 2024 season. Yet, he made us all look like idiots.
Williams followed up a strong 2023 season (1,350 all-purpose yards with 15 total touchdowns) with an even better performance in 2024. He played in 16 games, handling 316 carries for 1,299 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns while adding 34 receptions for 182 yards and two receiving scores.
Williams finished the year as the RB10 (17.0 fantasy ppg). Yet, despite the excellent season, I am here once again warning fantasy managers about drafting Williams at his ADP (RB11, 33 overall).
The safest bet right now is to trade away Kyren Williams in your dynasty leagues!
Our RB Sells EP: https://t.co/QHnSikLW5L pic.twitter.com/ExGFfHk0W6
— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) June 10, 2025
For one, Williams saw a significant dip in efficiency with a higher workload. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry in 2024, a solid number but nowhere near his 2023 season mark of 5.0. He’s also seen his yards per reception drop each season, culminating in a career-worst 5.4 in 2024.
The Los Angeles Rams have also continued adding to their backfield. Former third-round pick Blake Corum failed to carve out a role behind Williams in 2024, but he continues to loom as a younger option with less tread on his tires.
The Rams also drafted Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Hunter offers a different flavor in the backfield thanks to the ability to generate explosive runs (4.44 40-yard dash) at a similar size (5-foot-9, 204 pounds).
At this point, Williams will need to continue to sustain his fantasy value through an exceptionally high workload and volumes of touchdowns. Given his frame and the recent additions to the backfield, that is a difficult bet to make.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
For two seasons, we wondered what James Cook would look like if he were just given opportunities inside the red zone (nine total touchdowns scored). In 2024, we finally got our answer.
Cook carried the ball 207 times for 1,009 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns while adding 32 receptions for 258 yards and two touchdowns in the passing attack. Yet, despite leading the league in rushing touchdowns, Cook only managed an RB11 finish in PPR scoring (16.7 ppg).
That is the crux of the problem.
To sneak into the top 12 running backs in 2024, Cook had to double his career touchdowns in just one season. Despite Buffalo splitting its backfield between Cook, rookie Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson (not to mention Josh Allen), Cook saw his efficiency numbers dip in his most productive season.
There’s a chance that Davis will take on a bigger role in the backfield in 2025. At the very least, we know that Johnson will continue to take Cook off the field for third downs and two-minute drills, considerably limiting the latter’s upside.
For Cook to hit his ADP, he needs an injury in the backfield or to remain one of the most prolific TD scorers in the NFL. As of now, his touchdown prowess in 2024 is an anomaly compared to the rest of his career.
Drafting Cook early is a bet that he will either see a significant uptick in his workload or that he can continue to score at the NFL’s highest clip. Both seem like risky bets to make this early in fantasy drafts.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill was a fantasy goldmine during his first two seasons in Miami, averaging 170.5 targets, 119 receptions, 1,755 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns per season. Hill finished 2022 and 2023 as a top-three wide receiver in PPR scoring (20.4 and 23.5 points per game, respectively).
Unfortunately, the wheels fell off in 2024. Hill finished the year with 81 receptions on 123 targets for 959 yards and six touchdowns. It was his worst statistical season since 2019, a season in which he was limited to just 12 games played.
We could blame the wrist injury Hill was battling through in 2024. Unfortunately, that has continued to limit him ahead of the 2025 season.
We could also blame Tua Tagovailoa for being limited to just 11 games thanks to persistent concussion issues. That certainly limited his big-play potential, but it doesn’t explain the severe drop-off in targets.
Miami made it a point to integrate De’Von Achane into the passing attack, especially in the screen game. Historically, those targets were funneled to Hill thanks to his speed. Last season, Hill was targeted 17 times behind the line of scrimmage after having 32 such targets in 2023.
Speed receivers typically fall off quickly at the NFL level, and Hill will be 31 years old in 2025. While he still has plenty of speed, the Miami Dolphins have seemingly started to funnel his targets to younger weapons with less explosiveness.
Fantasy managers are still drafting Hill, hoping that he can replicate his excellent 2022 and 2023 seasons. However, those days might just have passed him by.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin is one of the most dependable NFL wide receivers. From 2020 to 2023, he averaged 129 targets, 80 receptions, 1,091 receiving yards, and 4.5 touchdowns per season. McLaurin never finished below the WR36 in PPR scoring and never had fewer than 12.0 fantasy points per season.
In 2024, McLaurin had his most productive fantasy season, finishing as the WR16 with 15.8 points per game. His production statistics were eerily similar (82 receptions on 117 targets for 1,096 yards), but the big change was in his TD efficiency (13).
Betting on players to repeat a significant jump in touchdown production is a dangerous game, especially when they are entering their age-30 season. Yet, that is what early fantasy drafters are doing.
It will be difficult for McLaurin to maintain the 15.8% TD rate he enjoyed in 2025, especially since the Washington Commanders added Deebo Samuel Sr. as a secondary weapon in the passing attack. Samuel is a significant upgrade over McLaurin’s competition in 2024 (Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown) and will take designed touches, especially in the red zone.
There’s a real chance that 2024 was the best season we’ll see out of McLaurin. However, the excitement about Jayden Daniels and Washington’s offense has seen his ADP settle in at WR18.
There just isn’t enough upside to justify that pick.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin was looking like an early 2024 league-winner before a dislocated ankle on a meaningless fourth-quarter reception ended his year early.
Through seven games, Godwin had 62 targets, 50 receptions, 576 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. He was the WR5 in PPR points per game (19.7) and even had a week as the WR1 (35.5 points in Week 6). We’ll never know if he could maintain that pace.
On the surface, Godwin’s ADP (WR32) is reasonable given his success in 2024. However, despite the discount, there’s a chance that he’s still being drafted too high.
For one, Godwin’s injury could have a more significant impact on his 2025 production than we are expecting. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed him to a lucrative extension this offseason, but that shows more belief in his long-term health.
Godwin is expected to be ready by Week 1 but will likely miss most of the offseason program. In recent memory, significant ankle injuries have hampered players well into the following season (Tony Pollard being the most relevant example).
MORE: PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Also, the Buccaneers lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason to become their head coach. Coen was committed to maximizing Godwin’s ability to thrive in the slot, but that may not be the case going forward.
Finally, Tampa Bay continued to add to its receiving room in 2025. This, despite having Mike Evans, who is a Hall of Fame talent, and Jalen McMillan (37 receptions for 461 yards and eight touchdowns), also looking good as a rookie.
Nevertheless, the Buccaneers decided to continue to add to their WR room in the draft, selecting Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka in the first round. Egbuka is the leading receiver in Ohio State history who also thrived as a slot-specific player.
Tampa Bay has more than enough weapons to give Godwin the time he needs to fully recover from his injury. Even if he’s ready for Week 1, there’s a realistic chance that Godwin will be in a rotational role to start the year to allow him to return to full strength.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Sam LaPorta was a revelation in his 2023 rookie season, finishing as the TE3 in fantasy points per game (14.1) thanks to 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Many expected him to be even better in 2024.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. Last year, LaPorta saw his targets (83), receptions (60), receiving yards (726), and touchdowns (7) decrease from the year before. The result was a solid season for a tight end (TE8, 10.4 ppg) but hardly one worthy of the TE1 in fantasy drafts.
Fantasy managers are holding out hope again in 2025, drafting LaPorta as the TE4 in fantasy. However, it’s hard to imagine him returning to his 2023 role in the offense.
Sam LaPorta has scored 9 of his 10 touchdowns this season at home in Detroitpic.twitter.com/3KkNJ2z8V7
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) January 7, 2024
Not only does Amon-Ra St. Brown return, but so does Jameson Williams. Williams finally got an opportunity to show why he was a first-round pick in 2021 and made the most of it, catching 58 of 91 targets for 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns. Williams has also been frequently hyped up by new offensive coordinator John Morton this offseason.
Detroit also returns Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to their backfield. Both players have the ability to contribute in the passing attack, which further siphons off targets from LaPorta.
If the Detroit TE is going to pay off his ADP, LaPorta once again needs to become the primary target in the red zone. Given the Lions’ explosive playmakers, it’s hard to see that outcome happening.
