After a two-touchdown performance in Week 15, Leonard Fournette has the opportunity to win fantasy football leagues in Week 16. Will Fournette continue to dominate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield touches, and what will that mean for fantasy managers this week?
Leonard Fournette comes into Week 16 off a strong performance
Week 15 was certainly good for Leonard Fournette’s fantasy managers. With Ronald Jones out for the game, Fournette scored 21.5 fantasy points, his second-highest return of the season. The raw numbers are not great, carrying the ball 14 times for 49 yards, but two touchdowns saved the day.
From healthy scratch to the end zone
These final few weeks of the season offer Fournette a chance of some redemption. The former number four overall pick has seen his star fade in the NFL. Week 14 saw Fournette as a healthy scratch, as the Buccaneers chose to roll with Jones, LeSean McCoy, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn.
However, when Jones was unable to go in Week 15, it was Fournette the Buccaneers handed the keys to in their win over the Falcons. Fournette dominated the carries in Week 15, including seeing all five of the Buccaneers red zone carries.
Red zone timeshare
When Jones is active, he leads the team in red zone carries (58%). However, after Jones, Fournette is the clear number two around the goal line (33.33%). With little competition from McCoy or Vaughn, there is huge potential for Fournette’s value when the Buccaneers get in close.
Fournette and Jones are similar in their impact. Fournette has that veteran presence and is marginally better in the passing game, but Jones is younger and the likely starter in 2021. That has led to Fournette seeing fewer opportunities on the season.
Yet, the problem has also been Fournette failing to take advantage of opportunities when they have been offered.
Leonard Fournette is having another bad season
Since entering the NFL, Fournette has failed to have the impact the Jacksonville Jaguars desired when they drafted him. In four seasons, he has topped four yards per carry just once. In 2020, he is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, and those numbers are boosted by one big game.
One big performance has made Leonard Fournette’s season look far less of a disaster
In Week 2, Fournette carried the ball 12 times for 103 yards (8.58 yards per carry). However, 46 of those yards came on a single carry late in the game. He still averaged 5.2 yards per carry without that long run, but the numbers look significantly worse.
If you remove Week 2 from Fournette’s season, his numbers become downright ugly. In the remaining 10 games, he has just 217 yards on 71 carries. That amounts to 3.06 yards per carry. Not exactly awe-inspiring results.
Leonard Fournette’s fantasy season has been solid
Averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game is a career-low for Fournette, but there are mitigating circumstances. Fournette has seen double-digit carries just four times. In each of those games, he has returned double-digit fantasy points.
Additionally, his role in the passing game has saved his blemishes somewhat. While not as prolific as 2019, he has pulled in 31 receptions on 42 targets for 187 yards. Again, nothing to get excited about, but heading into Week 16, it offers promise.
To have been as involved as little in the offense as Fournette has been at times, and he still ranks 36th in Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score is not a bad thing at all.
Fournette has not even been all that efficient and still been a usable fantasy asset when given the opportunity. His -9% Fantasy Points Differential is only saved from being a career-low by his 2019 performance for the Jaguars.
Should you start or sit Leonard Fournette in the fantasy playoffs in Week 16?
Nothing can sour the festive period faster than a dud from your running back the day after Christmas. However, with Jones having been ruled out for Week 16, this should not be the case for Fournette. With 14 of the Buccaneers 16 RB carries and five of their nine targets, Fournette is the clear lead back in Jones’ absence.
Running back matchups do not get much better than the Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions come into this matchup after being run all over by Derrick Henry. Henry carried the ball 24 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Lions have allowed over 100 rushing yards 10 times this season, including four of their last five. Only three teams allow more yards per game to opposing backs, and only one team allows more rushing touchdowns.
Even through the air, the Lions allow 44.6 yards per game to the RB position, despite only allowing 4.7 receptions per game. When it comes to touchdowns, no team can top the 25 the Lions allow to the position. At 1.79 touchdowns per game allowed, Fournette has a great opportunity to score two touchdowns in a game for the third time this season.
With those numbers, it is no shock the Lions are the worst team in the league in fantasy points allowed inside the red zone (12.1 per game).
When it comes to Pro Football Network’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score, the Lions rank fourth in standard and seventh in PPR formats. The Lions’ struggles to defend the run could mean Leonard Fournette leads a fantasy team to gold in Week 16.
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