The Indianapolis Colts will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Trey Sermon.
Is Trey Sermon Playing in Week 10?
Sermon is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Colts’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Trey Sermon in Week 10?
There are roughly half a dozen running back handcuffs that offer no stand-alone value and are worthy of keeping stashed for the remainder of the season.
Trey Sermon is not on that list.
Not only has he struggled when given the rock (47 carries and 10 catches this season and yet he’s still in search of his first 20-yard gain), but the team has shown zero hesitation in going back to Jonathan Taylor in a true bellcow role.
Tyler Goodson was better than Sermon during Taylor’s absence, making this a mess of a situation even if an injury were to occur. Are you really stashing a running back who might work into a committee for an underwhelming offense?
I’m not. Life’s too short to burn a roster spot on that type. I’d rather add Khalil Herbert post-trade or gamble on Kimani Vidal in Los Angeles.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Trey Sermon’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 10
As of Sunday, Sermon is projected to score 6.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 8 rushing attempts for 32.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. It also includes 1 receptions for 6.8 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills’ Defense
The Buffalo Bills defense was always expected to take a step back this year, and that has been the case after being a top-10 unit for each of the last three years. However, the decline has not been as steep as many feared, but some of that might be about the opponents they have faced. Against high-potential offenses in the Ravens and Dolphins, they have been a bottom-three unit this year.
The Bills’ metrics are not concerning in the overall sense, other than their pressure rate without blitzing ranking 23rd. That has shown up in the games against the Ravens and Dolphins, resulting in their sack rate and pass success rate dipping against the better offenses.
Do you want more insight on all other defensive units across the NFL? Head over to our PFN Defense+ Rankings for analysis on all 32 teams.
Trey Sermon’s Week 10 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).
