For a minute, Dallas Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle was penciled into the starting role for this upcoming season before the team elected to bring back Ezekiel Elliott. Dowdle’s fantasy football stock takes a hit from this signing, but did it create a buying window?
Rico Dowdle’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 160 (130 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 628
- Rushing TDs: 3
- Receptions: 30
- Receiving Yards: 251
- Receiving TDs: 4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Dowdle This Year?
Before we get into Dowdle as a player, let’s lay out the very rudimentary profile.
The Cowboys were the top-scoring offense a season ago and have given the keys to their backfield to a running back with over 2,500 career touches and has averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in consecutive seasons.
Again, they led the league in scoring.
This offensive environment cannot be overstated and isn’t likely to go anywhere. Dallas ranked top two in third-down conversion rate, red-zone drives, and goal-to-go situations. The offense produced those numbers without elite production from its running backs, meaning that there is room to improve should the team develop more balance.
A bet on Dowdle is a bet against Elliott, which makes plenty of sense as we get into the back half of drafts (ADP: Rounds 12-13). Elliott’s yards per carry after contact has tanked in consecutive seasons, coming in at under one yard last year with the New England Patriots. He’s a viable threat in the red zone, but counting on him as a lead back in 2024 is dangerous.
Rico Dowdle highlights for no reason pic.twitter.com/8G0UgZvMA1
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Dowdle’s profile is one I want exposure to. That said, I’m not sure the player himself has a ton to offer. If you want to buy Dallas’ offense as a reason to buy, that’s acceptable, but what evidence do we have that he can thrive?
Through three NFL seasons, Dowdle has 113 touches, and he was never given 135+ carries during his collegiate career. I’m not sure the touch upside is much beyond 12 per game, even if he ascends to the top of this depth chart. At cost, that worries me.
I’m a firm believer that no pick in this range is a “bad” one, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some that are better than others. MarShawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal, and Jaylen Wright are all rookies being drafted in the same neighborhood as Dowdle — give me all of them.
Vidal might be the best runner already in Los Angeles, while Lloyd and Wright are tethered to offenses that, like Dallas, we expect to be elite in 2024. The difference is that their college profiles project better.
I expect some pushback on Wright with two RBs ahead of him in Miami, but if either Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane were to get hurt, the explosive nature of the Dolphins’ offense vaults Wright into the Flex conversation.
If we get positive camp reports on Zeke and maybe even a “best shape of my life” quote, Dowdle’s ADP stands to fall. That is when I’d be interested.
I will say this, if you draft Dowdle, be patient. You’re playing the long game in fading Elliott, and if that idea hits, his stock could peak at the perfect time.
- Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 15 at Carolina Panthers
- Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
There are plenty of points to be scored during the final month of the fantasy season. Getting access to a regular in this offense in the late rounds could prove to be a true difference-maker.
