After releasing Aaron Jones, the Green Bay Packers made two key running back additions — signing Josh Jacobs and drafting MarShawn Lloyd. With AJ Dillon returning as well, how does this backfield project to shake out? Should fantasy football managers draft Lloyd this season?
MarShawn Lloyd’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 7.1
- Rushing Yards: 686
- Rush TDs: 3.8
- Receptions: 14
- Receiving Yards: 137
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Lloyd This Year?
For the first time in just under a decade, the Packers’ backfield won’t feature Jones. While it’s no secret that Jacobs will be the RB1, that doesn’t mean he’s the only member of this backfield worth drafting.
The Packers spent a third-round pick on Lloyd. An early declare who ran for 820 yards and nine touchdowns in his junior year at USC, Lloyd has great size (220 pounds) and elite speed (93rd-percentile speed score). He has the potential to make an impact right away. The question for fantasy managers is whether that impact will matter in fantasy.
Given Jacobs’ status as the lead back, Lloyd’s projection was never going to look all that strong. I have him at 6.02 fantasy points per game, which comes out to the RB51.
When it comes to backup running backs and guys this late in drafts, projections really don’t matter all that much. We’re drafting them for their ceiling outcome.
If healthy, Jacobs will undoubtedly lead this team in touches. However, head coach Matt LaFleur has a long history of committee backfields.
Jones has been the best running back on the team since about 2018. Yet, his highest career opportunity share was 62%, and he hadn’t been over 57% since 2020.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd will see limited action his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:
“No, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He’s got a skill set that’s a little bit different than AJ’s, as far as his speed… It’ll be nice to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex)
Coaches could be lying (shocking, I know!), but it does appear the Packers intend to utilize Lloyd right away. I have him projected for only a 19.5% opportunity share, but that includes 8% for Dillon. It’s entirely possible Dillon is relegated to a seldom-used RB3 role, pushing Lloyd’s opportunity share over 25%.
The main reason fantasy managers are drafting Lloyd, though, is for his contingent upside. If Jacobs gets hurt, Lloyd appears to be the next man up. He would certainly be fantasy-relevant, albeit likely in a committee with Dillon.
There’s also the matter of Jacobs’ recent performance. Although the Packers gave Jacobs a nice contract, if he doesn’t perform well, I fully expect them to see what Lloyd has to offer.
Jacobs averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season and was woefully inefficient. Sure, the Las Vegas Raiders offense was bad, but Zamir White was more effective in his four games as a starter under the same conditions. What if Jacobs just isn’t that good?
The median outcome in projections for Lloyd doesn’t indicate a player who will matter in fantasy. However, circumstances change and can change quickly.
Lloyd’s RB48 ADP is very palatable. It is possible his ADP dips a bit due to the hamstring strain he sustained in the Packers’ first preseason game. However, the report is that the injury is minor and Lloyd is not at risk of missing Week 1. Therefore, although I wouldn’t call Lloyd someone I’m aggressively targeting, I certainly want to get him on a couple of teams.
