It has been a long time since the Atlanta Falcons have been in this spot — leading the NFC South Division — this late in the season. The defense has keyed their resurgence, but can they slow down Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans this week? Let’s break down this matchup.
Falcons vs. Titans Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- Moneyline: Falcons (-142), Titans (+120)
- Over/Under: 35
- Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Falcons vs. Titans Prediction
It has been a while since the Falcons enjoyed a winning record after the first seven games of the season. In fact, you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Atlanta was 4-3 or better after seven games.
That was also the last time the Falcons made the playoffs.
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If you want to go look ahead, a win Sunday would make Atlanta 5-3 after eight games. The last time that happened, the Falcons made the Super Bowl (2016 season).
But can the Falcons go on the road and come away with a key victory? They are coming off their first road win of the season last week at Tampa Bay, and with six of their final 10 games away from home, if the Falcons want a division title, they will likely have to win a couple more road games.
As for the Titans, they have lost two in a row and are simply struggling to score points in their losses this season. While Tennessee has scored 27 points in each of its two wins, it has failed to score even 20 points in any of its four losses, averaging just 12.5 PPG.
And now they have to face the Falcons and their much-improved defense. Atlanta, which ranked 27th in total defense a season ago, now has the league’s third-ranked defense, allowing just 285.4 yards per game. The Falcons are also top 10 in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 19.0 points per game (ninth-fewest).
The running backs for these two teams will be interesting to watch. Tennessee, of course, has the great Derrick Henry, except Henry hasn’t exactly been great so far. Henry is 10th in the league in rushing yards (425), but his rushing-yards-per-game average of 70.8 is his lowest since 2018 (66.2).
Henry has topped the century mark in rushing yards in only one game so far, back in Week 4 vs. the Bengals (122 yards).
The Falcons, meanwhile, are hopeful the headaches that sidelined running back Bijan Robinson for all but 10 offensive snaps last week are gone, and the rookie can return to the form that had him ranked third among running backs with 590 scrimmage yards over the first six weeks of the season.
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Despite their defensive excellence, a major reason to feel leery about the Falcons this week is turnovers. Since Week 3, Atlanta has 12 giveaways, easily the most by any team over that span.
Tennessee has thrived this season as a home underdog. Not only have the Titans covered their two games as a home dog, but they have also won the games outright, beating the Chargers and Bengals.
Atlanta’s win last week marked the first time it covered a spread since the opening week of the season vs. the Panthers. The Falcons are also 0-5 against the spread in non-divisional games, and since 2018, they are just 8-16 ATS in non-conference matchups.
So, while, yes, the Titans are struggling, and yes, the Falcons are playing better, I’m going to take a chance on the home team in this spot. Tennessee probably won’t score a lot on the Atlanta defense, but given the Falcons’ offensive issues, the Titans won’t need to score a lot to win this game.
Even though I just said they would win, I would take the couple of points, just to be safe.
Best Bet: Titans +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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