The Los Angeles Chargers are on a two-game losing streak after consecutive losses to the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs, but can this be a get-right spot for them against the Chicago Bears? The PFN betting team gives their Bears vs. Chargers predictions, favorite player prop bets, and more.
Bears vs. Chargers Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Chargers -8.5 - Moneyline
Bears +350, Chargers -455 - Over/Under
46.5
Bears vs. Chargers Predictions
Bearman: The “head coach should be fired after this loss” game does not interest me much. I would never lay 8.5 with the Chargers against anyone, and you can’t trust the Bears.
I lean over in this one since both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in points allowed and bottom four in the league in passing yards allowed. Justin Herbert is likely to have a good day, so keep an eye on his passing prop total once up.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â As almost any NFL team would with an undrafted rookie quarterback out of Shepherd University, the Bears’ passing attack with Tyson Bagent has been extremely conservative. In two games this season filling in for an injured Justin Fields, Bagent’s average depth of target is 3.7 yards, the lowest in the NFL. For context, the next lowest is Joe Burrow at 6.2 yards.
With such a low aDOT, it would take an extremely high passing volume or a lot of yards after catch from the Bears receivers to get to at least 198 passing yards, even if that’s a fairly low total against a really bad Chargers defense. But I think that’s the obvious play here for Bagent.
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On the flip side, while the very low aDOT should hurt DJ Moore’s production a bit here, I’m still expecting him to be heavily targeted tonight. His receptions prop is 4.5, and he easily went over this total last week in a game that they never trailed and led by double-digits at halftime and going into the fourth quarter.
Picks: Tyson Bagent under 197.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), D.J. Moore over 4.5 receptions (-166 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Football is a game of matchups, and it’s tough to ignore the spot that this Chargers passing game is in. Through seven weeks, the Bears are a top-five defense against the run (yards per carry) and a bottom-five pressure unit. You don’t need to twist the arm of Kellen Moore to throw the ball, so I have this projected as a Justin Herbert-friendly spot in a big way.
We know Moore-orchestrated offenses aren’t shy about pushing the ball down the field, and I’m more confident in that evaluation now than I was entering the season. Why? Here are the percentage changes in aDOT among Los Angeles’ top two receivers and tight ends since the Mike Williams injury:
- Keenan Allen: +22.1%
- Joshua Palmer: +33.2%
- Gerald Everett: +54.1%
- Donald Parham: +28.9%
Now we are onto something. Herbert’s aDOT is up 15% in those games, and without having to worry about much pressure, we could be looking at chunk play after chunk play.
As mentioned, I’m expecting a pass-heavy script, so it’s worth noting that Herbert has hit 300 yards in 70.8% of his career games when throwing at least 40 passes (when he throws 40+ times in a win, he’s averaging 326.3 yards). You can get cute as to how you distribute those yards — it all depends on the level of risk you want to take on.
In four of Herbert’s five 300-yard games over the past calendar year, both of his top two receiving options hit 80 receiving yards. That’s just a number to tell you what you know: When Herbert runs hot, it’s in a concentrated fashion. I have a conservative min-SGP built for you below, but you can certainly ramp up the aggression if you want a juicer ticket.
Pick: Herbert 250+ passing yards with Allen 60+ receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Gallimore:Â Austin Ekeler surpassed this receiving total of 31.5 yards in 12 of 17 games in 2022. Due to his ankle injury, he hasn’t quite got going this year, but the seventh-year back has logged full practices every day this week.
The Bears rank 31st in yards allowed to opposing running backs. Given that we like Herbert and this Chargers passing attack, especially at home in weather-controlled SoFi Stadium, this is a don’t-over-think-it spot for Ekeler to produce with great upside.
Pick: Austin Ekeler over 31.5 receiving yards (-135 at DraftKings)
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Gallimore:Â You might not be too familiar with Tyler Scott. I wasn’t either when I started breaking down this game. However, what I look for in “fringe” or less productive wide receivers is snap count trend, opponent matchup, and favorable game script potential. Scott checks all of these boxes.
The rookie’s snap counts jumped from an average of about 20% through the first five weeks of the season to 59% in Week 6 and 56% in Week 7. He collected two receptions in each of those contests for a total of 31 yards on seven total targets. Those numbers, of course, do not jump off the page, but they allow for a betting opportunity as the market has not priced in any of his upside.
As Soppe mentioned above, we like Herbert and the fifth-ranked Chargers passing offense (yards per pass attempt) to have a nice game against a weak Bears pass defense. On the flip side, the Los Angeles pass defense ranks dead last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, faring better defending the run (16th).
Although we haven’t seen too much of the player, Scott’s potential in this Sunday Night Football matchup checks every box I look for when betting an over.
Pick: Tyler Scott over 1.5 receptions (-125) and over 15.5 receiving yards (-115)
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