Every team plays this week, so there is no shortage of NFL player props to bet on. But which player prop bets should you be targeting? Let’s dive into our favorite NFL player prop bets for today’s slate of games.
Week 8 NFL Player Prop Bets
D’Andre Swift Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â There has been a lot of discussion around Philadelphia’s struggles in the red zone offensively this season, but one storyline that has fallen under the radar a bit is that their running game hasn’t been the same in recent weeks.
Starting offensive guard Cam Jurgens has been out since Week 5, and the Eagles have dropped from 1st in success rate on running plays to 14th without him. In those three weeks, Swift averaged 50 rushing yards per game and just 3.57 yards per carry. That number is also inflated by a 22-yard run on the final drive of the game last week when they had a 14-point lead.
Although they narrowly defeated the Commanders the last time they played, the Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had no difficulty moving the ball through the air. Hurts finished with 319 passing yards on 8.6 yards per attempt and two touchdowns, his best day throwing the ball this season. I’m expecting the Eagles to lean on the pass again in this one, especially if they aren’t getting anything going on the ground early.
Miles Sanders Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Blewis: I faded an Eagles running back in my last player prop, and for my next one, I will be fading a former Eagles running back.
Miles Sanders was one of the few running backs that got paid this past offseason, signing a four-year, $25.4 million contract with the Panthers in free agency. The contract set him up to be the bell cow this season, but after a very inefficient start to the season, he has started to lose touches to Chuba Hubbard.
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In the first three weeks of the season, Sanders had almost four times as many carries. In Weeks 4-5, however, Hubbard had three more rushing attempts before having 19 carries for 88 yards with Sanders out of the lineup in Week 6.
Sanders has been practicing in full coming out of the bye week, but I’m expecting this to be an even share of carries at the absolute worst. The Panthers are desperate to start winning games, and Hubbard has been much better. So far this season, he is averaging 1.4 more yards per carry and 1.1 more yards before contact on each carry. If the Panthers want to see some improvement offensively, they should feed Hubbard over Sanders.
Brian Robinson Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Caesars)
Katz:Â When the Eagles and Commanders last played, Brian Robinson did go over this number. But he got there on pure volume. It took him 14 carries to get to 45 yards. If Robinson gets another 14 carries, he can probably get there again. But recent trends suggest he won’t.
Over his last three games, Robinson has averaged a sub-50% snap share. After averaging 15.25 carries per game over the first month of the season, Robinson has averaged just 8.0 carries per game over his last three.
The Commanders have been giving a handful of carries each game to Chris Rodriguez. If that continues, and I imagine it will, that will be enough to prevent Robinson from doing much on the ground against an Eagles defense that allows the second-fewest yards per carry (3.3) to running backs.
Travis Etienne Jr. Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, I was on Travis Etienne’s rushing yards under. That hit. Now, we go the other way against a Steelers defense that allows 118 rushing yards per game to running backs, the fourth-most in the league, and 4.7 YPC, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Etienne has a true bellcow role. He only comes off the field when he’s tired. Last week, he played 88% of the snaps. While he only handled 14 carries, he still got to 53 yards against an elite run defense.
Against a much weaker run defense, Etienne should have no trouble reaching 62 yards, even if he once again only sees 14 carries. If he gets 20+, this should hit easily.
Calvin Ridley Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz:Â In seven games this season, Calvin Ridley has surpassed 40 receiving yards exactly twice. In both of those games, he absolutely smashed, surpassing 100 yards. Other than those two flukes, Ridley has been a non-factor.
The Steelers have gotten torched by opposing teams’ WR1s. That means we’re likely in for another heavy dose of Christian Kirk, who dominates against man coverage. Ridley cannot beat man coverage because he is incapable of getting open. He doesn’t have a single catch this season over the middle of the field, where the Steelers are most vulnerable. It’s going to be another long day at the office for the overhyped and severely overrated Jaguars WR2.
Kareem Hunt Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: This seems like a high line for a guy just off a season-high of 47 rushing yards. I know. Jerome Ford is out. Kareem Hunt is now the lead back. But is he?
Last week, Pierre Strong handled eight carries against Hunt’s 10. We are not going to get 2018 Hunt here. We’re not even going to get 2020 Hunt. This is going to be a timeshare. Hunt is probably capped at 12-14 carries. That’s not going to be enough against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, allowing a league-low 2.9 ypc to running backs. I was very tempted to make this a two-unit play.
Kenneth Walker III Under 80.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: I really like Kenneth Walker III. He’s very good at football. He’s also only topped 80 rushing yards twice this season. Yes, this includes receiving yards, but Walker is not really used as a pass catcher. He’s had 11 receiving yards or fewer in four of six games this season. Last week, he caught just two balls for six yards, and that was with Zach Charbonnet inactive.
Walker’s rushing yards line sits at 66.5. Essentially, we are getting 14 more yards to play with for a player who is unlikely to make a big impact through the air.
The Browns allow 3.8 YPC and just 77 rushing yards per game to running backs. This is a bad matchup for a very good player. Look for Walker to be inefficient on Sunday, and finish with around 60-70 total yards.
Tee Higgins Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: Based on Tee Higgins’ 2023 performance, this looks like an awful bet. He’s gone over this number just once in five games.
In Week 1, Higgins went catchless. I will chalk that up to a fluke. In Week 2, Higgins smashed with an 8-89-2 line. In Week 3, Higgins just disappeared, catching 2 passes for 21 yards. In Week 4, Higgins hurt his ribs. He didn’t play Week 5 before returning to Week 6 at less than 100%.
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Heading into Week 8, the Bengals are coming off their bye. Higgins is fully recovered from his rib injury, and Joe Burrow is the healthiest he’s ever been.
Last season, Higgins went over 45 receiving yards in 10 of his 14 games played. I’m willing to gamble this is the lowest we will see Higgins’ receiving yardage line for the rest of the season.
Aaron Jones Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at BetRivers)
Katz: I was only able to get 0.7 units down on this one because BetRivers likes to limit me. Oh well. I had to take their line because this was 38.5 or lower everywhere else.
Aaron Jones has not been healthy since Week 1. He has still yet to log a full practice since the season started. Combine that with Matt LaFleur’s comments admitting Jones isn’t 100 percent and is not ready for a full workload, and I think we’re getting another week of AJ Dillon as the lead back.
That’s enough of a reason to fade Jones, but we also have a Vikings defense that has been stout against the run, allowing just 3.6 YPC to opposing backs. Jones will need to break off a long one to go over this number.
Matt Breida Under 13.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Katz: I was surprised to see sportsbooks even offer a line on Matt Breida. Saquon Barkley is now yet another week removed from his high ankle sprain. I am not concerned in the least about his elbow. That means Breida is just a backup — an uninspiring one at that.
Breida played a whopping 11 snaps last week, carrying the ball all of three times for four yards. That was against the Commanders. It should be even tougher against the Jets.
There’s no guarantee Breida touches the ball at all this week. Even if he does, he’s unlikely to go anywhere.
Jalin Hyatt Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Jets have been stellar against the pass. They’re allowing just 120 yards per game to wide receivers, the second-fewest in the league. But this Jalin Hyatt number is really low for a guy who has been running as the clear WR2 for two weeks now.
Over the past two weeks, Hyatt has played over 70% of the snaps. He’s run at least 25 routes in four straight games. Most importantly, his targeting is increasing, with five and four in his last two games.
Hyatt has benefited from Tyrod Taylor under center, and the Giants’ best QB will be making another start this week. Hyatt can hit this number on just one reception.
Bijan Robinson Under 81.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: We all know how incredibly talented Bijan Robinson is. We all know the things I’d like to say about Arthur Smith, but my PR team tells me not to.
For as great as Robinson is, we know the volume is not going to be there. It is too important to get Tyler Allgeier and his three yards and a cloud of dust 12+ carries every week.
On the season, Robinson has totaled over 80 yards in just two games. The Titans allow just 3.9 YPC and a total of 81 rushing yards per game to running backs. Robinson will not be getting all of those for the Falcons.
Yes, Robinson’s role as a receiver has been good, but are we really expecting him to rip off 30+ yards through the air? I’m not. But that’s what it would take for him to go over this number.
Tyjae Spears Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Is it just me, or is this number way too high for a backup running back? I realize Tyjae Spears has played over 50% of the snaps in all but one game this season. However, he’s still averaging just 5.1 carries per game. Even at his 5.5 YPC, that’s not likely to get him to 32 rushing yards.
Additionally, the Falcons are pretty good against the run, allowing just 3.6 YPC to running backs. With Derrick Henry still in town, unless the Titans blow out the Falcons with Malik Willis and Will Levis at QB, I don’t see how Spears handles enough volume to reach 30 yards on the ground.
Najee Harris Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-109 at BetRivers)
Soppe: For the season, Najee Harris is averaging 8.7 receiving yards per game, and that includes a 32-yard grab against the Texans that was a weird scramble situation that saw Harris improvise, barely make the catch, fall, and then drag numerous Texans with him. He’s nice to play — but about as unsustainable/unpredictable as it gets.
Even with that bizarre play, his average production through the air is under his projected number this week. Harris is the primary option on the ground over Jaylen Warren (+37 carries), while it’s Warren over Harris through the air (10 more catches than Harris has targets).
The Jags are the fourth-best per-carry run defense in the league through seven weeks, a strength that could cap the playing time for the two-down grinder that Harris has turned into this season.
Rashid Shaheed Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Katz: This was a Sunday morning addition. Michael Thomas was added to the injury report on Saturday due to an illness. We had gotten reports earlier in the week than an illness was running through the Saints locker room.
While Thomas is likely to try and play through it, anyone who has ever been sick knows how difficult it is to function while ill. There is a very real chance Thomas is “fake active” similar to how Bijan Robinson was last week.
If Thomas’ snaps are limited, that means more action for Rashid Shaheed against a subpar Colts pass defense. And, as always, Shaheed can get there on just a single reception.
Drake London Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Soppe: I like diving into advanced metrics and overthinking stats as much as anyone, but sometimes calculus isn’t needed.
London has seen at least seven targets in each of his past four games, and, for his career, he averages 7.5 yards per target. We can all agree that London’s talent has yet to be fully unleashed in Atlanta, and yet, that per target production is enough to get us home this week.
But wait, there’s more. None of those numbers account for the matchup — the Titans allow the fifth-most yards per pass this season (7.4) — their weakness.
Do we think the books have this right, and Atlanta wins? If so, an efficient Desmond Ridder is possible.
- CMP% in wins this season: 72.3%
- CMP% in losses this season: 58.6%
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120 at DraftKings), Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Broyles: The Cowboys offense was scuffling a bit heading into their bye week. Prescott has performed outside of hiccups against Arizona and San Francisco.
The Cowboys were determined to establish the run in 2023, but the ground game isn’t as reliable as in seasons gone by. The Cowboys’ offensive line is good, but it is not the dominant unit it once was.
The Cowboys have enough weapons to find holes in the Ram’s defense. Expect the passing game to be firing on all cylinders off their bye week. Take the Over on passing touchdowns and yards for Dak.
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135 at DraftKings)
Broyles: The line for Matthew Stafford passing touchdowns has moved quite a bit in the last 24 hours. Originally posted at -120, the line has moved significantly to +135.
I don’t expect the Rams to be able to run the ball with consistency against a Cowboys-dominant front seven. If the Cowboys are pushing the action, which I expect, the only way for the Rams to keep pace is through their passing game.
Cooper Kupp had one of his worst games in quite some time last week. The Cowboy’s secondary is not as daunting with Diggs on season-ending IR, so expect the Rams to attack the Dallas defensive backs.
Dallas may eventually pull away, but Stafford will keep the Rams in the game long enough for the Rams QB to hit the over on this prop.
Breece Hall Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Broyles: The Jets want to run the football and have the star RB to get it done. The Jets coaching staff were limiting Breece Hall’s touches in the first month of the season, but head coach Robert Saleh admitted there are no more restrictions on the second-year back.
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The Giants defense has been playing better lately, but Hall is the type of back who, even if bottled up for a while, can take any carry to the house. Expect a conservative run-based approach coming out of the bye week. Take the Over on rushing yards for Breece Hall.
Calvin Ridley Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Broyles: I hear the naysayers now, “Ridley has been terrible. What are you doing?” I hear you, and I remain undaunted. Ridley’s bottom line isn’t as bad as it seems and suggests he’s in a bounce-back spot in this one.
The Steelers’ secondary is one of the worst in the league at stopping the receiver position. Expect head coach Doug Pederson to exploit their advantages at the receiver position in this one.
Zay Jones remains out for this one. Expect Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk to hold down the fort in his absence. I dare to dream. Expect Ridley to break out of his slump against Pittsburgh this week. Take the Over.
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