The Minnesota Vikings fantasy outlook takes a look at the post-breakout value of Jordan Addison, while the Green Bay Packers fantasy preview evaluates the team’s struggling passing game.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Vikings -1
- Total: 43.5
- Vikings implied points: 22.3
- Packers implied points: 21.3
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: I’d say that completing 35 of 45 passes for 378 yards and a pair of touchdowns against arguably the best team in the NFL is a good way to put those “Cousins can’t produce in prime time” narratives to rest. Captain Kirk posted his fifth top-10 finish on Monday night, this one being the most impressive considering the opponent and the absence of Justin Jefferson.
It should be noted that he had a pass to Jordan Addison that should have been intercepted but was instead turned into a 60-yard touchdown (12-point swing for fantasy managers) — sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but luck isn’t sustainable.
The lack of rushing upside puts a fantasy cap on Cousins. But with at least 44 pass attempts in five of seven games, the floor puts him into the starter conversation, even without any teams on bye and his recent struggles at Lambeau (55.8 completion percentage with three TDs and five INTs over his past three trips).
Cousins is my QB11 for Week 8, ranking ahead of Joe Burrow.
Jordan Love: I mentioned the poor pass that resulted in a 12-point swing for Cousins’ managers last week. Love’s managers fell into 4.2 more points than they should have had too, as the QB missed WR Romeo Doubs by so much on an end zone target that the pass glanced off of Doubs and into WR Jayden Reed’s hands for a score.
Love is now walking on thin ice. Yes, he has been a top-12 quarterback in four of six weeks, but he’s yet to hit 260 yards through the air. Plus, a 57.5% completion percentage doesn’t point to much hope in the way of consistent production. With over 20 rushing yards in four of his past five, he’s been able to find his way to patchwork production, and that should continue in this favorable spot, but I’m nervous long-term.
He’s my QB14 for the week and is checking in just behind Joe Burrow in a tough matchup.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison: The bottom fell out last week against the San Francisco 49ers as the Vikings took to the air. That resulted in just 10 touches for Mattison (42 yards, 5.2 fantasy points). Prior to that dud, he had been a top-25 performer at the position in four straight games – thanks largely to volume (18-plus touches in three of four games entering Week 7).
Cam Akers out-carried him 10-8, despite playing 10 fewer snaps, and the broadcast was dropping hints that this backfield could be swinging in favor of the former Ram sooner than later. I still have Mattison ranked as the lead RB in Minnesota, but he is more of a Flex option this week – down from the RB2 status he has held for the past month.
Cam Akers: In his best game with the Vikings, Akers racked up 61 yards on 12 touches in a backfield that looked like a committee for the first time this season. His work on the ground was underwhelming (31 yards on 10 carries — 13 came on a single play), but a 30-yard reception helped salvage the stat line.
We joked about it when the Vikings acquired him, and we may have been right. Could another late-season Akers peak happen? He was a league-winner down the stretch last season with 100+ total yards in four straight to finish 2022, and things line up nicely for him over the final seven weeks of this fantasy season.
He has matchups with the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Packers.
If Akers is, for some reason, still available in your league, open up a new tab and make that add. I’m approaching Week 8 with caution, but if his usage takes another step forward in Lambeau, he could be on the Flex radar before Thanksgiving.
Aaron Jones: Coming out of the bye, Jones remained limited against the Broncos as the Packers continue to take the cautious approach with his hamstring injury. He was productive on his 11 touches (57 yards), signaling that he’s ready for more work.
Considering that AJ Dillon (3.2 ypc) has done little this season to earn a significant role, I have Jones ranked as the RB in town to play as he checks in as a low-end RB2. His 19 carries against these Vikings picked up 160 yards in 2022, and with Love struggling after a hot start, stability in the run game is something the Packers are searching for.
AJ Dillon: With Jones still limited, Dillon was able to take advantage of a plus-matchup last weekend (95 yards on 17 touches). He ran hard and looked about as good as he has at any point this season. Yet, it would seem that his usage is more dependent on Jones’ health than anything he does on the field.
The RB position gets thin in a hurry, so if you’re in a tough spot this week, Dillon is a reasonable low-end Flex play that carries some scoring equity. His touch count is a moving target, but given how slowly the team is ramping up Jones, it would seem that a 10-12 touch floor makes sense.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Addison: The rookie receiver took a contested catch 60 yards to the house on Monday night against the 49ers, and he has scored in five of his first seven games. For some perspective, per the Week 8 Cheat Sheet, Los Angeles Rams QR Cooper Kupp and NFL great Calvin Johnson scored in four games as a rookie, while Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson scored in five games in his first year.
The long touchdown was great to see, but I was more encouraged by Cousins looking his way from the jump last week. He seems to have established himself as the preferred option to K.J. Osborn, a role that makes him a viable fantasy option — even if/when Jefferson comes off of IR.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn is on the field all the time, and that’s going to be enough to keep him on the outskirts of Flex consideration with Jefferson on the shelf, but it is becoming clear that Addison is the preferred option for the splash plays, while Osborn is more an “if-needed, take your medicine” type of option.
I don’t have anything against that role in the scope of fantasy as a whole, but on a team that already has TE T.J. Hockenson doing that, Osborn’s floor/ceiling combination isn’t going to pass the smell test entering most weeks.
He’s on the field plenty with limited upside and will be ranked next to similar players (Curtis Samuel and Wan’Dale Robinson types) moving forward. This week, that’s a few spots outside of my top 40 at the position.
Christian Watson: A knee injury took Watson out of last week’s loss at the very end, but it was an underwhelming three-for-27 performance from the burner. Even with the injury, he was on the field for 87.5% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, but he’s been unable to get on the same page as Love (50% catch rate with 53.8% of his receiving yardage this season coming on a single catch).
This remains a plus matchup, despite what the Vikings were able to do against the 49ers on Monday night. But I need to see signs of life before betting on Watson. Assuming the knee injury doesn’t hold him out, he’s ranking as a low-end Flex alongside other WR1s in tough offensive spots like Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore and Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London.
Romeo Doubs: The touchdown Doubs scored last week was positive proof of the upside that resides in him, as he wrestled the ball away from one of the best corners walking planet Earth in Denver Bronco Patrick Surtain II.
What Doubs lacks is something a lot of young receivers lack — especially ones with an inexperienced QB — and that’s the ability to earn looks consistently. His target count by two game increments this season included eight targets in Weeks 1-2, 25 in Weeks 3-4, and nine targets in Weeks 5-6.
See what I mean? I don’t think the swings are going to change anytime soon, but a banged-up Christian Watson could put Doubs in position to take advantage of a favorable schedule over the next month. With or without Watson, Doubs isn’t going to crack my top 35 this week, and I’d be looking elsewhere for Flex help.
Jayden Reed: The rookie has struggled to gain much traction over the past two weeks, as this offense has sputtered (28 yards on six targets, total), but he did manage to haul in an off-target pass to Doubs last week for a fourth-quarter touchdown.
On the bright side, he was able to earn targets when given the opportunity. He tallied a 22.2% target share last week, while Watson earned a 16.7%, and Doubs earned a 14.8% share.
There have been enough sparks from Reed this season to have my interest piqued long-term, and should Watson sit, my interest in him for DFS lineups increases. But he’s a stash in deep leagues at best and not in the fantasy starter conversation.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was a chain-moving machine in the upset win over the 49ers, and that role is going exactly nowhere. Addison has established himself as a viable deep threat, and with that threat in the mind of defenses, Hockenson’s high volume/short-yardage role is something you can bank on (pace: 114 catches and 143 targets).
In the last two weeks without Jefferson, Hockenson earned a 27.4% target share. In the first five weeks with Jefferson, he had just a 19.6% target share.
Luke Musgrave: There are eight tight ends I feel good about weekly and then a group of five that I order differently on a weekly basis to make up my streaming tier. Musgrave is firmly in the latter, thanks to a 78.6% catch rate and a solid role in an offense built around receivers who challenge defenses down the field.
The rookie has yet to clear 50 yards in a game this season, and that’s obviously not ideal. That said, given the struggles of Jordan Love and this Packers offense as a whole (30 points over their past two games against the Raiders and Broncos), I expect more high-percentage targets in the coming weeks.
The overall stat line is unimpressive at the moment, but I expect better days to come. Musgrave checks in as my TE12 this week.
Should You Start Jordan Addison or George Pickens?
This is a close call, as I think both offer significant upside this week. Give me Addison, due to less target competition and a more consistent QB getting him the ball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Pickens has a big week against a Jacksonville defense that is stronger against the run than the pass, but I’ll side with the quality of target edge that Addison holds.
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Should You Start Aaron Jones or Javonte Williams?
I want to believe that Jones is trending closer to full strength and thus a workhorse back, but until we see it, it’s impossible to count on. Williams, on the other hand, tripled the touch count of Jaleel McLaughlin last week and seems to be trending in the direction of a true lead back.
Neither of these offenses has much of an identity right now, so I’ll side with the player whom I project to get more work. That’s Williams right now.
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