This is one of the premiere matchups in the NFL this week, as two teams with aspirations of a deep playoff run meet in Baltimore. And the quarterbacks in this Lions–Ravens contest — Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson — will be the biggest storyline. Let’s take a look at this matchup.
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Lions vs. Ravens Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Ravens -3
- Moneyline: Lions (+130); Ravens (-155)
- Over/Under: 43
- Game time: 1:00Â p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium
- Channel: FOX
Lions vs. Ravens Prediction
The days of the Lions being pushovers on the road — and Jared Goff struggling away from home — appear to be over. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit was winless in its first 12 road games, going 0-11-1.
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But the Lions are 3-0 away from Ford Field this season and 7-1 in their last eight road games.
And Goff, who had a 12:9 TD-to-INT ratio on the road in his first two seasons in Detroit, has four TD passes and just one interception away from home this season.
Goff will be the key in this matchup Sunday. He is top five in the NFL in completion percentage (fifth), passing yards per game (fifth), and passer rating (third). Running back David Montgomery is out this week for the Lions (ribs), and even though they will welcome the return of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, Goff will still probably be throwing the ball more than usual.
That could very well play into the Ravens’ hands. Baltimore has the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 163.2 passing yards per game.
One major storyline to follow in this game is Goff vs. the Ravens defense on downfield throws (throws with 10 or more air yards). According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Goff leads the league in yards per pass attempt on downfield throws (15.2), but the Ravens defense is the best in this department, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt on downfield throws.
From the Ravens’ perspective, their big storyline likely centers on Jackson and if he can continue to carve up opposing defenses with his legs. Jackson leads the Ravens in rushing (327 yards), and his four touchdown runs are already his most in a season since 2020 (seven).
But he has to run against the league’s No. 1 run defense in the Lions, who are allowing just 64.7 rush YPG. That is over 80 fewer rush YPG than Detroit allowed last season (146.5) when it ranked 29th in this category.
It’s that defense that has allowed the Lions to win even when the offense struggles. Detroit has won its last five games when being held to 20 or fewer points after going 0-23-1 in its previous 24 contests when scoring 20 or fewer points.
The Lions have been excellent away from home vs. the spread, going 3-0 ATS on the road this season (8-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons), but when they have followed a straight-up win, the Lions are 10-2 ATS in the next game since the start of 2022.
That the Ravens are favored isn’t a surprise, but what may be a surprise is to find out that since 2021, Baltimore is just 4-11 against the spread as a home favorite.
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The Lions will miss David Montgomery, and they arguably have the NFC’s top quarterback so far this season in Goff. As long as he continues to play well on the road, I’m going to back him and the Lions in this matchup.
Look for the Lions to get a big road win and establish themselves as perhaps the team to beat in the NFC.
Best Bet: Lions on moneyline (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
