Now that we’re in Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season, we have developed a better understanding and have a larger sample size to make more informed decisions when making player prop bets. With an 11-game slate for this week’s Sunday action, which NFL player props should you be targeting? Let’s dive into the PFN betting team’s favorite player prop bets for today.
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Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets
Bijan Robinson Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â Concerns about Bijan Robinson’s usage before the season have proven to be correct so far this season, as he only has five more carries than Tyler Allgeier despite averaging 1.8 more yards per carry. In fact, over their last two games, Allgeier actually has more rushing attempts.
In a backfield that’s basically an even timeshare, Robinson needs to be extremely efficient with his carries to hit the over on his rushing yards, but today, he’ll be going against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.
In a game in which I expect the Falcons to be trailing as well, I’m fading Robinson here, considering the potential game script, lack of usage, and strength of this Bucs defense.
Keaontay Ingram Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Katz:Â One of my favorite types of props to bet is the seemingly too-low (but not low enough) yardage totals on bad players. Not only does Keaontay Ingram have a career 2.3 yard-per-carry average, but he gets to face the No. 1 defense at stopping the run.
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The Seahawks are allowing just 2.7 YPC to opposing backs. With the Cardinals touchdown underdogs, negative game script should force them to abandon the run, preventing Ingram from voluming his way there.
Gus Edwards Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Katz:Â You can’t run on the Lions. They are allowing just 3.1 YPC and a total of 47 rushing yards a game to running backs. An RB seeing a ton of volume would have trouble reaching 46 yards against them. Gus Edwards is not seeing a ton of volume.
The Ravens split their backfield between Edwards and Justice Hill. Last week, Edwards saw a season-high 16 carries. He is normally in the 10-12 range. Yet, he still ran for just 41 yards against the Titans’ stout run defense. We have a similarly tough matchup this week, and I’m expecting similar results.
Nelson Agholor Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz:Â I just mentioned how you can’t run on the Lions. Conventional wisdom suggests that means the Ravens will have to throw. Obviously, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are the top two targets for Lamar Jackson. However, the Ravens are clearly souring on Rashod Bateman (for good reason).
Over his past four games, Nelson Agholor has run at least 24 routes in every game. He’s gone over this number in three of them. He can get there on just two catches.
Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 Receptions (-145 on DraftKings)
Katz:Â I very, very rarely lay this kind of juice on a prop. If you want to take over 4.5 at plus odds, by all means, go for it. I just can’t pass up something that has hit five out of six games this season.
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Even last week, when Sam LaPorta caught just four passes, he saw 11 targets. With David Montgomery out, the Lions are going to rely heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and LaPorta. Given the expectation of high winds, checkdowns to the tight end are very much in play. Just like the last time we took this in Week 3, I think this can win by halftime.
Zach Ertz Longest Reception Under 13.5 Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz:Â We are starting to see a shift in usage with the Cardinals tight ends. Last week, for the first time all season, Zach Ertz’s snap share fell below 50%. He ran a route on just 51% of Josh Dobbs’ dropbacks. After running 42 routes in Week 4, Ertz ran just 30 in Week 5 and 22 in Week 6. His role is decreasing.
Ertz’s total receiving yards line is just 22.5. I could take that under, but odds are, if he has a catch for at least 14 yards, he will go over that number. But given his usage this season, Ertz could easily see his role increase back to previous levels and still not catch a pass longer than 13 yards. He has just three of them all season.
Finally, the Seahawks have been excellent against tight ends. Just 14.4% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to the TE position. This is just a bad spot for Ertz all around. I was tempted to make it a two-unit play … take that for what it’s worth.
Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (-125 at BetMGM)
Katz: Over the first four weeks, Davante Adams saw a total of 50 targets. He caught at least six passes in every game. Over his past two games, Adams has a total of nine targets and just six receptions.
This past week, Adams spoke very openly and candidly about his feelings toward his usage. Simply put, he wants the ball. I am buying the Adams squeaky wheel narrative. I think the Raiders make it a point to pepper him with targets early and often. He should have every opportunity to catch 6+ balls in this one.
Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: In first quarters this season, Tua Tagovailoa ranks in the bottom third of the league in aDOT (6.1 yards) and the top third of the league after those first 15 minutes have passes (8.1). To me, that suggests that scripted plan is to use the short pass game as an appetizer, with the fireworks to come later. But are those big plays going to be available in this spot?
The Eagles rank fourth in pressure rate, a strength that could very well result in a less high-octane Dolphins attack, a continuation of what we’ve seen in first quarters through six weeks, if you will.
That supports the idea of Jaylen Waddle really getting on track in this spot, given that his aDOT for the season is 31.7% lower than that of Hill. You know what else supports that train of thought? The Dolphins themselves!
Last two games:
- Hill: 32.8% target share
- Waddle: 32.8%
Previous three games that featured both of them:
- Hill: 27.1%
- Waddle: 15.0%
Remember those first-quarter stats I cited earlier? Even more dramatic of a difference lately. In the past two games, Tagovailoa’s first quarter aDOT is 5.4 FEET. Not yards. Feet (1.8 yards). They’ve come out looking to get this short pass game going, and Waddle is the unquestioned option in that regard.
Donald Parham Under 14.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: This should be a fun game that features plenty of overs, but I’m not against fighting for an ugly prop. We are nearing 700 days since the last time Donald Parham saw more than three targets in a game, and while his yardage prop is short, it requires efficiency that he’s yet to prove.
For his career, the 6’8″ tight end averages a target once every 13.1 routes and a catch once every 19.1. He owns a 68.6% career catch rate, and each catch picks up an average of 11.1 yards.
If we are playing the odds, to go over his prop tonight, we need a minimum of three targets — that would imply two catches. At his career rates, that would require him to run over 39 routes, something he has done four times in 38 career games.
But wait, there’s more! The majority of his targets this season have come in the red zone. Those are effective looks for the Chargers, but ones that come with capped yardage upside — significantly capped in the case of Parham, who has racked up a total of five yards on his three scores this season.
Before the jury rests, your honor, I want to present to you Gerald Everett’s snap share over the past four games:
- Week 2: 41%
- Week 3: 58%
- Week 4: 69%
- Week 6: 74%
Courtland Sutton Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: This is a wholly ridiculous total for Courtland Sutton. In six games this season, Sutton has topped 50 receiving yards just twice. One of those times came in a game where his team was trailing by three scores, and he had no catches until the fourth quarter.
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Sutton’s 22% target share is just 32nd in the league. The Packers have been excellent at defending wide receivers, with just 58.4% of their total receiving yards allowed going to the position. As if that isn’t enough, there’s a chance this is a Jerry Jeudy squeaky wheel game, which would only further serve to reduce Sutton’s volume.
I get the sense that Sutton’s nose for the end zone is having an impact on the perception of Sutton’s ability as a receiver, prompting the books to make his yardage line higher than it should be. Let’s capitalize on Sutton’s impending 4-40 game by taking the under.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: This year’s cash cow returns! After a one-week absence, JuJu Smith-Schuster unders are back on the table. Every season, I find one of two players — usually wide receivers — who really shouldn’t be in the NFL anymore and take their unders every week until the lines go away. This year’s guy is JuJu.
Over his last three games, Smith-Schuster has posted receiving totals of five, 14, and six. His snap share dipped below 50%, and he’s mostly on the field when the Patriots run the ball. Injuries have completely sapped all of JuJu’s explosiveness. He could catch three passes and still not get over this number.
Kendrick Bourne Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Gallimore:Â Last week, Tyrod Taylor and a decimated New York Giants offensive line went into Buffalo as 15-point underdogs with little hope of any offensive success. However, Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson were able to blow past their receiving yards over/under totals.
Game script, quick passes, snap count, and low expectations were all major factors for why I loved the over on Robinson’s receiving yards prop (26.5) last week — and he didn’t even need a favorable game script to hit the over, finishing with 62 yards in a 14-9 loss.
The Buffalo Bills defense without Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano showed some significant holes last week, and the same factors are in place for Bourne and the Patriots in Week 7.
The 1-5 Patriots are in desperation mode and have no choice but to find ways to produce chunk plays. While the Patriots could turn to their traditional slow, ground-and-pound, clock-controlling offensive game plan vs. Buffalo, it’s much more likely the Patriots will have to rely on making plays in the passing game against a high-ceiling offense coming off a bad performance — the latter was true in the 2022 Wild Card matchup between these two teams, where Bourne finished with a 7-77-2 stat line.
Bourne played 93% of the snaps last week, and in the only two games in which he failed to record more than 39.5 receiving yards, he played less than 55% of the snaps. I like a Patriots offense in desperate need of showing production to find enough ways to get the ball to their best playmaker.
Josh Palmer Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Gallimore:Â Since 2022, in seven games without Mike Williams, Josh Palmer has cleared the 50-yard mark in all but one. And the one game below 50 yards came on the road against the 49ers, in which Palmer was still targeted eight times.
There is clear chemistry between Palmer and Justin Herbert, with Palmer seeing 15 total targets in his two starts this season. Even on an off-night for Herbert and the Chargers offense last week against Dallas, Palmer still had four catches for 60 yards, not including a 27-yard touchdown called back on a penalty.
With Mike Williams out the entire second half in the Chargers’ Week 10 matchup against the Chiefs last year, Palmer finished with eight catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Given the offensive upside in this matchup and Palmer’s role in the Chargers’ offense, I will gladly attach the over and will continue to do so for the rest of the season any time his yardage prop is below 50 yards.
