Fantasy football managers have benefited greatly from one of these pass games and it certainly wasn’t the one we assumed it would be. The New Orleans Saints fantasy preview takes a look at the struggles of Chris Olave while the Houston Texans fantasy preview digs into the sustainability of C.J. Stroud.
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New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
- Spread: Saints -1.5
- Total: 42.5
- Saints implied points: 22
- Texans implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: Carr looked a little bit better in Week 5 than Week 4 (shoulder), as three different Saints had a 25+ yard reception. Yes, one of them was a pass to Kendre Miller, where the rookie did the heavy lifting, but still, he looked a step closer to healthy.
That’s good news for those who have suffered consecutive losses due to the underwhelming Chris Olave numbers.
Carr should not be on your radar at this moment. Maybe a fully healthy version of him lands on the streaming radar after Thanksgiving (four straight weatherproof games against iffy at best defenses), but there’s no reason to hold him right now.
C.J. Stroud: The NFL record holder for passes to open a career without an interception has displayed a strong fantasy floor through five weeks (four straight top-17 finishes), but Stroud still hasn’t finished a single week inside the top 10 at the position.
With Tank Dell nursing an injury and the Saints coming off their best defensive performance of the season, I have a hard time thinking this is the spot for Stroud to post a big fantasy number.
I will admit that I’m impressed with both his play and Houston’s development plan. Assuming that continues, he could prove to be a league-winner. You heard me. League. Winner.
The Texans get the pass funnel Titans in Weeks 15 and 17 this season, with all of the fantasy chips on the line. Note that he gets the Browns in between those two matchups, so you’ll want to have a backup option.
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Stroud isn’t a starter for me this week, but he’s a serious stash consideration after Sunday if he is dropped ahead of Houston’s Week 7 bye.
CJ Stroud.
Second-reaction throw. pic.twitter.com/1UyJUEGkGX
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41)
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Often pigeonholed as a finesse back, Kamara was given three straight carries inside the 10-yard line last week and paid it off with a touchdown. Whether or not you think that role sticks with him beyond this week is one thing.
But in terms of Week 6 value, he’s a locked-in option who has a good chance to make it back-to-back-to-back top-12 finishes at the position to open his season.
Jamaal Williams: This game will be the fourth missed by Williams, meaning that he is eligible to come off IR ahead of next week’s game on Thursday night against the Jaguars. I won’t have him ranked as a starter in his debut, but Williams’ role as a TD vulture is valuable to have stashed on your bench in case of emergency.
Kendre Miller: The rookie showed his agility in the open field with a 33-yard catch-and-run in the demolition of the Patriots last week, a reminder of why the Saints invested a third-round pick in him this April.
The talent is certainly there, and that makes Miller a strong dynasty hold. But without a direct path to significant work (out-snapped by Kamara 45-26 last week), he’s not positioned to ever start for your fantasy team.
Miller’s not a bad stash for those of you who play in leagues with deeper benches.
Dameon Pierce: His next game this season in which he averages over 3.5 yards per carry will be his first, and I’m not sure it’s coming anytime soon. The Patriots managed just 2.5 yards per carry against the Saints last week, and while the matchup isn’t ideal, does it matter?
For the season, per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, over 38% of Pierce’s rushing yards have come after contact. He’s getting hit before he has a chance to generate any momentum or identify running lanes, making this an impossible spot. He’s outside of my top 25 running backs for a third straight week, which is saying something with two teams on a bye and numerous RB injuries.
Devin Singletary: Singletary is rostered in way too many leagues. What’s the upside? Right now, he’s essentially a specialist (ran a route on 83.3% of his Week 5 snaps). Even if Pierce were to get hurt, how valuable is Singletary’s role to anyone?
I don’t think Joshua Kelley or Clyde Edwards-Helaire are any good, but I prefer them both to Singletary as RB depth with the knowledge that they are one injury away from at least being a fantasy option in potent offenses. That’s not something Singletary has and can, therefore, be cut in all redraft formats.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: Three catches on 11 targets for 16 yards over the past two weeks. That is all sorts of ugly for one of the game’s emerging stars. However, Olave did manage to record his first TD of the season last week in the shutout of the Patriots to salvage some value. Buy time.
To my eye, Carr looked a little healthier this week than last, and I anticipate him to continue to trend closer to full strength with each passing week.
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In Weeks 1-3, Olave was good for over 100 yards and nearly 11 targets per game, proving that his highly effective rookie season was anything but a fluke. I fully expect him to return to that form, and it could be this weekend.
You’re doing fantasy wrong if you’re considering benching Olave, and sending out a trade offer for him before this week kicks off isn’t a bad idea.
Michael Thomas: We constantly call James Conner a boring running back that you can count on, and that is essentially what Thomas is at the receiver position. In all five games this season, he’s seen 6-9 targets and gained 50-65 yards.
If Thomas scores — something he has yet to do this season — he’ll prove to be a viable option. If not, you’re left wanting a little bit more. I don’t see that changing anytime soon and will have him ranked in the WR30-40 range every single week.
Rashid Shaheed: I believe in Shaheed the player and don’t doubt that he will be a usable piece during stretches as the season moves on, but his deep-threat skill set simply isn’t worth gambling on with Carr’s shoulder clearly at less than full strength.
The Texans blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL, opting to sit back in coverage and, thus, play with protection over the top. This isn’t the spot to consider Shaheed a top-40 play, but don’t lose track of his name. His time will come!
Nico Collins: As long as you embrace the ride, Collins is a viable fantasy option. Any receiver who gets the defensive attention that he receives with a rookie under center is going to have down weeks. Yet, the structure of this Texans offense provides Collins with enough of a ceiling to swallow the risk.
- Week 1: 11.0 fantasy points
- Week 2: 24.1 fantasy points
- Week 3: 4.4 fantasy points
- Week 4: 32.3 fantasy points
- Week 5: 5.4 fantasy points
It’s a frustrating way to being the 11th-highest-scoring receiver through five weeks, but it’s productive in the grand scheme of things. The volatility won’t disappear, though, I do think it lessens with time as he gets comfortable in the WR1 role and Stroud grows with reps.
Collins is my WR30 this week in a tough matchup, with the understanding that he has a wide range of outcomes. The Collins line, for me, is drawn ahead of receivers with either major quarterback questions (DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Wilson) or significant target risk (Gabe Davis and Rashee Rice).
Tank Dell: The spark-plug rookie suffered a concussion in the second half of Week 5’s loss in Atlanta. In most situations this season, the protocol has required at least seven days to pass.
Dell is a lower version of Collins in that he comes with the same volatility but fewer chances to make the game-saving play. Due to the volume of this offense, I’d hang onto “Nathaniel,” but he’s not a weekly starter, and his Week 6 status is a major question.
If you’re looking for secondary exposure to this offense, Robert Woods out-snapped John Metchie III 40-26 last week and is my next highest-ranked Texan receiver by a significant amount.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: He remains my second favorite tight end with this first name, but Schultz has scored in consecutive weeks, allowing him to post back-to-back top-six finishes.
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Do I think that sticks? Of course not, but the season-high 10 targets Schultz saw last week were much more encouraging than the three he saw in Week 4 against the Steelers.
I have him labeled as a viable streamer and inside my top 15 tight ends. Should Dell sit, Schultz will be the pass catcher behind Collins, who I have the most confidence in.
Taysom Hill: If you’re truly in the YOLO business at the TE position, Hill getting at least three carries is at least worthy of consideration.
He’s never going to project well, but Hill’s versatility gives him more outs than any other option this far down the ranks.
I’m not suggesting he has a good game this week (easily outside of my top 15), but in terms of raw potential, his name always has to be mentioned (ran a route on 42.9% of his snaps last week in New England).
Should You Start with Michael Thomas or Jakobi Meyers?
Meyers carries enough of a floor due to his target share for me to chase a ceiling that is considerably higher than that of Thomas. It’s closer in a full-PPR setting, but Meyers’ touchdown equity is worth betting on in a spot like this.
Should You Start C.J. Stroud or Matthew Stafford?
Stroud has been playing great football to open his career, there is certainly no doubt about that. Stafford, however, has a significant advantage in the supporting cast with Cooper Kupp back and that’s enough for me to favor the veteran.
I have the Rams as the higher-scoring team this week, thus putting Stafford in a better position to return top-10 number this week than Houston’s impressive rookie.
