The last time the Buffalo Bills played the Washington Commanders was in Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season. Buffalo was also 1-1 that season and came away with a convincing 43-21 victory. Will history repeat itself, or is this a different Washington team? Let’s look at the betting odds and best bet prediction for this week’s matchup.
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Bills vs. Commanders Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Bills -6.5
- Moneyline: Bills (-270); Commanders (+220)
- Over/Under: 43
- Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: FedEx Field
- Channel: CBS
Game Prediction
With the usually high-powered Bills offense and a Commanders offense looking much more productive under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, there could be a lot of points coming in this matchup.
Buffalo rebounded from a disappointing and sloppy effort in a Week 1 loss to the New York Jets by throttling the Las Vegas Raiders last week, scoring nearly 40 points (38) and gaining 450 yards of total offense. Josh Allen, under heavy criticism for his four-turnover performance in the season opener, silenced his critics for one week at least, with three touchdown passes and no turnovers against Las Vegas.
Running back James Cook turned in a terrific performance against the Raiders, with 123 yards on the ground. Washington’s rush defense hasn’t been great (109.0 YPG, 16th), and last week, Russell Wilson (56 yards) was the Denver Broncos leading rusher against the Commanders, which could play right into Allen’s hands, or in this case, legs.
Washington is coming off a 35-point performance against Denver, its most points in a game in nearly three years. While Sam Howell looked much sharper last week than in Week 1, the Commanders appear to be a team that wants to run the ball.
After running for just nine touchdowns all of last season (29th in the NFL), the Commanders already have three in the first two games. Second-year running back Brian Robinson continues to get the bulk of the carries and is coming off the first multi-TD game of his career.
Howell has been sacked 10 times already in two games, but the Bills have only three sacks this season. If Buffalo cannot get to the quarterback, there are enough weapons for Howell to find in the passing game.
Buffalo’s defense has been strong early on, holding each of its first two opponents under 300 total yards. The Bills also forced three Raider turnovers and have four takeaways in two games this season.
I think this game will come down to how much can Washington’s offense produce against Buffalo’s defense. Since the start of 2020, Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in a game 27 times, while the Commanders have reached the 30-point mark just five times.
MORE: Week 3 NFL Betting Predictions
The more Washington gets comfortable with Bieniemy’s system, the better its offense will produce. The Commanders showed signs of that last week, and I’m guessing this will continue at home.
Washington will need to score at least three touchdowns to have a chance in this game. And even though that still may not be enough to cover a spread that’s around a touchdown, it will be enough to push this total over.
Take the over in a game where the total could end up in the 50s by Sunday.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
