Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is coming off his worst season since his sophomore year. Between the changes to the Packers’ offense and his lack of goal-line work, is Jones still a quality fantasy RB2? Should fantasy football managers draft Jones at his ADP this season?
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Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Jones is one of the trickiest running backs to evaluate for the 2023 season. He will turn 29 years old before the season is over. That’s never good. But he’s also shown no signs of slowing down.
Last season, Jones was top 15 in evaded tackles per touch (29.4%) and top 12 in yards per touch (5.6). He averaged 3.28 yards created per touch, 10th in the league, and his 13.4% target share was also top 10. Everything about Jones’ on-field performance suggests he’s the same guy he’s been for the past half-decade.
Yet, Jones only averaged 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game. It marked the latest in a clear downward trend of fantasy performance.
Jones peaked at 19.7 ppg in 2019, and he’s steadily declined every year since. He went to 18.5 in 2020, 15.3 in 2021, and 14.6 in 2022. There’s definitely reason to be concerned that trend continues in 2023.
The big reason is Jones’ touchdown upside has completely vanished. For starters, Aaron Rodgers leaving is not going to benefit him. On the whole, this offense is not going to score as much with Jordan Love. That reduces the total number of touchdowns that can potentially go to Jones.
More importantly, though, is AJ Dillon’s rise. While Dillon may not have been that impressive last season, he was utterly dominant at the goal line. Jones handled just three carries inside the 5-yard line all season. Dillon is going to see over 80% of the goal-line touches, and that’s a conservative estimate.
Unsurprisingly, Jones’ touchdown totals have also dropped every year since 2019. Last year, he scored just seven times, and most of his touchdowns have come through the air. Over the past two seasons, Jones has a total of six rushing touchdowns.
Is Jones a Good Fantasy Pick?
Jones doesn’t have the same ceiling he did in the past. It still exists to an extent because Dillon could get hurt. That would thrust Jones back into a goal-line role. But drafting assuming an injury to the backup is unwise.
The good news is Jones’ floor remains high. The Packers are much improved at wide receiver with Christian Watson entering his second season and Jayden Reed entering the fold (sorry Romeo Doubs enthusiasts, I am excluding him for a reason). However, Jones is going to remain a big part of the passing game.
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Jones currently has an RB14 ADP, No. 37 overall. That is exactly where I have him ranked as well, which is one spot behind our PFN consensus rankings — a negligible difference.
Jones is not necessarily someone I’m actively targeting in fantasy drafts, but I’m not avoiding him, either. Once you get toward the latter half of the third round, you can consider drafting Jones. If he falls to me in the middle of the fourth, he becomes an even more enticing pick.
