Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has firmly established himself as the best wide receiver in fantasy. Having improved after each professional season, is there a limit to what Jefferson can do? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Outlook
What do I really need to say about Jefferson? He burst onto the scene as a rookie, catching 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 17.1 PPR fantasy points per game.
All he’s done since then is improve every year. His receptions increased by exactly 20 in each of the past two seasons. His receiving yards increased by about 200 each year. And his ppg went up by exactly 2.3, topping out at 21.7 ppg last season. If the trend continues, Jefferson would catch 148 passes for over 2,000 yards in 2023.
Of course, no one is projecting him (or anyone) for numbers that lofty. But Jefferson is the cream of the crop at wide receiver.
Last year, Jefferson led the NFL in routes run. He saw a 29.3% target share and was targeted on 28.4% of his routes run. Those numbers ranked seventh and 11th, respectively.
From a pure volume standpoint, he led the NFL in receptions, yards, yards after the catch, and red-zone targets. The man is a machine and well deserving of being called the best wide receiver in the NFL.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Jefferson at His ADP?
Jefferson is this year’s top player by ADP. There are some fantasy managers out there who project Ja’Marr Chase to overtake him. There are others who are running back purists. I wouldn’t fault anyone for passing on Jefferson for one of those guys.
With that said, Jefferson is well deserving of being the first overall pick. He is as safe as it gets and comes with a ceiling that rivals that of 2021 Cooper Kupp. Yes, that’s how good Jefferson can be.
The Vikings remain one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. They threw the ball at a 63% rate in a neutral game script last season. They also averaged 27.2 seconds per snap, the sixth-fastest pace of place in a neutral game script.
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Between trading for T.J. Hockenson last season, cutting Dalvin Cook this year, and drafting Jordan Addison in the first round, the Vikings are very clearly committed to throwing the football once again.
For all the criticisms levied at Kirk Cousins, he’s had no trouble supporting WR1 seasons from the likes of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Jefferson.
Unsurprisingly, Jefferson is my WR1. My projections have him catching 124 balls for 1,797 yards and 10.2 touchdowns. That came out to 21.7 ppg and the overall WR2, behind only Kupp. You don’t need me to tell you that Jefferson is very much worthy of being the first overall pick in 2023 fantasy drafts.
