Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams failed to live up to the hype last season. But he still had a solid campaign. With a new offensive coordinator and competition from rookie Quentin Johnston, is Williams still worth drafting this season? What is his fantasy football projection?
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Mike Williams’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
After a disastrous rookie season that saw him total just 11 receptions for 95 yards, Williams was fighting an uphill battle to be a relevant fantasy asset.
While he did post solid seasons from 2018-2020, Williams had never finished higher than a fantasy WR4 until he broke out in 2021. That year, Williams caught 76 of 129 targets for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. Everything but the touchdowns was a career-high.
With Keenan Allen over 30, 2022 was supposed to be the year Williams overtook Allen as the top receiving option on the Chargers. Instead, Williams regressed. He caught 63 of 93 targets for 895 yards and for scores in 13 games played.
It’s important to put Williams’ 2022 into context. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 7, returned too soon in Week 11, aggravated it, and wasn’t back to himself until Week 14. All of that contributed to Williams averaging just 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
Although Williams didn’t progress as many hoped, it wasn’t an outright disaster. He still finished as the overall WR20 and was a useful fantasy asset.
Should You Draft Mike Williams This Year?
The thing with Williams overtaking Allen is it’s not like Williams is that young. He will be 29 years old early this season. And players with his skill set typically do not age well. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he and Allen fell off around the same time, except Allen will be 33/34, and Williams will be 31/32.
Nevertheless, Williams is not going to fall off this year. The concern is that either he’s just a volatile WR2, like he’s been each of the past two seasons, or he falls even further down due to rookie Johnston taking away targets.
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First, let’s address Williams’ volatility. Over the past two seasons, He has played in 28 games (I’m not counting Week 11 of last season). In those games, he’s scored 16+ fantasy points 13 times, just under half. But of those 16+ fantasy point outings, 10 of them were 20+, four were 25+, and two were 30+. When Williams hits, he smashes.
The problem is the other side of it. Williams also posted 12 games under 10 fantasy points. In six of those games, he was under five fantasy points. The highs are high, but the lows are lows. He is the ultimate boom-or-bust wide receiver.
There is reason for optimism this season, though. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore orchestrated the highest-scoring offense in 2019 and 2021 while in Dallas. And it’s not as if he’s getting a downgrade in weapons going from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams.
The Chargers should remain one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. Over the past two seasons, only the Bucs had a higher neutral game script pass rate than the Chargers’ 63%. And no team played faster than the Chargers’ 25.2 seconds per snap. The team in second at 25.3 seconds per snap? Moore’s Dallas Cowboys.
The Chargers are going to throw plenty to support Allen, Williams, and potentially Johnston as worthy of being on fantasy rosters.
With all that said, Williams is who he is at this point in his career. If you draft him, you know what you’re getting. He is going to win you a couple of matchups. He’s also going to lose you just as many. If you’re prepared for that type of volatility, go ahead and grab Williams at his WR29, No. 71 overall ADP.
I currently have Williams at WR31, but I do think he will likely finish higher than that. This ranking is more about more reliable guys in front of him who I also think have a higher ceiling.
Williams is worth drafting at the right price. But given where I have him ranked relative to ADP, unless he falls in drafts, or something changes between now and draft day, I don’t anticipate rostering Williams much in 2023 fantasy leagues.
