Calling all bettors! The 2023 NFL Draft is finally here. It’s like the Super Bowl, but without one clear winner (usually), and without one clear loser (somewhat usually). What do bettors need to know about this year’s draft? The following are some of our favorite wagers — our best bets — for the upcoming draft.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
2023 NFL Draft Best Bets
As you know, not all bets are the same because not all odds offer the same chance of success. Although anything can happen on draft day, here are our favorite bets based on A) a vast swath of reporting, B) teams’ greatest positional needs, and C) teams’ desperation level to go all-in, knowing that they have a narrow window to win now.
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Anthony Richardson, Second (+3000) or Fourth (+140) Overall Pick
Do you enjoy hedging? There are times when it’s like throwing money down the drain. But other times, they give us the leverage to go big on a long shot, with the relative security of a fallback scenario.
When Anthony Richardson wraps up his NFL career, he might prove to be the best QB in this draft class. I believe Carolina traded up to No. 1 because they had a pretty good idea of who they wanted. At that point — just as now — Richardson was projected to be the No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback off the board.
MORE: FREE Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
Barring something unforeseen, we can rule out the Panthers taking Richardson. And recent concerns (warranted or otherwise) about C.J. Stroud opens the door wider for Richardson to be one of the top three QBs drafted. While no. 2 might be a stretch, it’s within the realistic realm of possibility, and would garner bettors a huge payoff.
As a fallback option, we can hedge this bet with the No. 4 selection, knowing the Colts desperately need another quarterback for the fifth consecutive offseason since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement. They are, just as they’ve continually been, one high-impact QB away from making plenty of postseason noise.
Anthony Richardson Draft Position Under 7.5 (+160)
Wait, another Richardson pick? You “bet-cha.” (Terrible pre-draft betting pun. Let’s move on.)
Since I believe Richardson will go at No. 2 or No. 4, and since the odds of him going in the top seven are quite favorable, this seems like a no-brainer — as long as he goes where I think he will.
Keep in mind that several teams might try to move into the top seven — QB-interested franchises like the Patriots (currently picking at No. 14), Packers (No. 13), and Falcons (No. 8). Or we might observe the Titans (No. 11) pulling off a monster deal sending Derrick Henry and their first-rounder to, say, the Lions for D’Andre Swift and their first-rounder (No. 6.)
Such a deal would assuredly give the Titans their QB of the future as they undergo a mammoth rebuild. It would also upgrade the Lions’ backfield as Detroit makes a legitimate run at a title.
The point is, Richardson probably won’t fall to the Falcons at No. 8 or anywhere beyond. There are enough hungry teams seeking a leg up on a potential future top-10 NFL QB to propel Richardson into the top seven.
Joey Porter Jr. Draft Position Under 19.5 (+175)
Last year, the Steelers took the University of Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett — the first QB off the board. The year before, they snagged Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth. Four years before that, with Le’Veon Bell tearing up the NFL, the Steelers locked in University of Pittsburgh’s James Conner in the third round — seemingly a little early for a guy who, at the time, wasn’t projected to be a consistent NFL starter.
The Steelers have been opportunistic in grabbing “hometown” guys in the draft. And Joey Porter Jr. didn’t just play at Penn State. His dad was a four-time Pro Bowl linebacker and Steelers mainstay.
MORE: How To Watch the 2023 NFL Draft
The Steelers are scheduled to pick at No. 17. The odds suggest either A) they’ll trade down and get Porter later in the first round, or B) they’ll look elsewhere, and Porter will slide regardless.
I believe the Steelers have at least 50/50 odds of selecting Porter, continuing their pattern of securing relatively local talent with a vibrant local fan base. And, of course, Porter is one of the top cornerbacks in this draft. The Steelers need him. It’s a perfect fit at No. 17.
