Whichever format of fantasy football contest you’re planning to play for Super Bowl 57, identifying start/sit options that can differentiate you from the other players is key. Let’s take a look at which players may prove too risky this week and who might be a bargain waiting to help you win your fantasy contest this week. Let’s examine the fantasy credential of Miles Sanders, Kadarius Toney, Kenneth Gainwell, and others.
Super Bowl 57 Fantasy Football Start ’ems
These recommendations are aimed at bridging multiple different fantasy platforms. Whether you are taking part in an Underdog Fantasy Best Ball tournament, playing a DFS salary-cap contest, or trying to win your whole NFL playoff fantasy league, these considerations can help you differentiate yourself from the competition.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB | PHI vs. KC
This is purely a cost-to-potential reward type of play. Gainwell has seen a huge increase in his usage over the last two weeks. He’s gone from averaging 3.12 rushing attempts and 1.71 targets per game in the regular season to seeing 13 attempts and 2.5 targets per game over the last two games.
The outputs have been varied, with 21.6 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Giants and 8.4 against the San Francisco 49ers. Yet, when you look at that usage and how Gainwell can be utilized, he’s an intriguing upside play.
MORE: Pro Football Network’s Super Bowl 57 Picks — Eagles vs. Chiefs Predictions, Odds, and More
We’ve seen the Philadelphia Eagles trust Gainwell in these playoffs to help them run down the clock. Equally, we’ve seen them willingly use him in the passing game to chase a lead.
At the running back position, arguably, only Clyde Edwards-Helaire offers a better upside-to-opportunity ratio than Gainwell. However, Gainwell has a safer floor than CEH. If you want to shoot for the moon in a big-money contest, Edwards-Helaire is the enticing option, but if you want to maximize your upside without compromising your floor, then Gainwell makes more sense.
Kadarius Toney, WR | KC vs. PHI
The news that Toney is a full participant at practice ahead of the Super Bowl is wonderful from an upside perspective. There is no Kansas City Chiefs WR that we can totally trust this week, but it at least feels like Toney has an upside worth exploring.
The Chiefs love to use unconventional play calls, and we’ve seen them do so before in the Super Bowl. Previously, Mecole Hardman might have been that X-factor for Kansas City, but he’s on the IR. That leaves Toney to occupy that role.
We could easily see him get 5-7 opportunities in this game, and some of them in unique situations. On DFS platforms, Toney is either the second or third Chiefs’ WR in terms of value. With uncertainty over the position, we’re trying to balance cost, ceiling, and floor.
The Chiefs like to utilize Toney a handful of times a game, and often inside the red zone. The other WRs may have bigger upsides, but their floors are lower, and the price is generally higher.
Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI vs. KC
All eyes at the tight end position this week will be on Travis Kelce, and in many ways, rightly so. In a fantasy format where price is not a consideration, Kelce is the TE pick every time. However, if you’re looking to save at the position, then Goedert is at least interesting.
When comparing the two, you need to look at how the opposing defense has done against the position. While it’s not the be-all, end-all — because Kelce and Goedert are better-than-average tight ends — the Eagles have restricted opposing tight ends to an average of 10.34 fantasy points per game on average this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed 12.65 fantasy ppg.
The best QB-TE combination the Eagles have played this season was Dak Prescott and Dalton Schultz. In Week 16, they held Schultz to 43 yards on three receptions from four targets. Of course, that’s just a one-game sample size, but data around the tight end position is generally limited by the lack of “elite” options at the position.
From a pure opportunity basis, Kelce is likely to see more targets and touches than Goedert. But when you consider the two offenses and the corresponding defensive game plans, Goedert is going to draw less attention than Kelce. Kansas City’s passing game — and arguably their entire offense at times — revolves around Kelce.
Goedert is, at best, the third pass-catching option for Philadelphia. You could make the case that after the combined RBs and Jalen Hurts, he’s the fifth weapon that opposing defenses will plan around. That contrast provides an opportunity for Goedert to return tremendous value at a significantly lower acquisition price than Kelce.
Super Bowl 57 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Miles Sanders, RB | PHI vs. KC
I’ve been fading Sanders all postseason with mixed success. Against the Giants, it proved to be the right move, as he managed just nine fantasy points with no targets and 17 carries. Against the 49ers, however, he found the end zone twice, salvaging an otherwise mediocre day that saw him finish with 45 yards on 12 opportunities.
For Sanders to return value this week, you really need him to find the end zone. It’s more than possible but hard to count on.
Prior to last week, Sanders had not scored a touchdown since Week 14. His performance in the NFC Championship Game ended a run of five straight games with single-digit fantasy points.
If you drafted Sanders in a full NFL playoff fantasy league, you likely don’t have the luxury to sit him. However, paying a premium for a seemingly touchdown-dependent option in DFS and Best Ball formats is extremely risky. We’ve seen too much variation in goal-line opportunities among the Eagles’ backs, and with Jalen Hursts also involved, it further limits Sanders’ chances to score.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | KC vs. PHI
Coming off a 116-yard day with a touchdown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling may feel like an intriguing option this week. However, the reason he falls on this side of the Super Bowl start/sit is that he is being overvalued based on the AFC Championship Game.
The last game was a perfect storm for MVS. The other Chiefs’ WRs were either out or limited due to injury, and the Cincinnati Bengals’ secondary is not one of the best in the league. That allowed Valdes-Scantling a perfect opportunity to succeed, and he did exactly that. The same cannot be said about this week.
Toney and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both seemingly healthy entering the game, which should dilute the opportunities for all of the wide receivers. Additionally, Philadelphia’s secondary has a couple of really good pieces. There is every chance that Valdes-Scantling could draw a matchup with Darius Slay, which could phase him out of the offensive game plan.
Don’t get caught up paying a premium for last week’s stats. Prior to that, MVS had not scored double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR or PPR scoring since Week 15 against the Houston Texans. You have to go back to Week 10 to find the double-digit performance before that. In the second half of the season, Valdes-Scantling is averaging a double-digit fantasy performance once every five games.
