This Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction got a tad more interesting for Dallas. Technically speaking, Dallas still has a sliver of a pathway to the NFC East division crown and even the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. But a loss this week, or any week, slams that door permanently.
MVP candidate Jalen Hurts will be out for the team that currently occupies those two distinctions. Hurts being out also means a shift in the lines for this game, which means we need to search for some value in the Eagles vs. Cowboys odds.
Here’s what we know: the Behavior Bets sports betting model predicted a one-point game between these two teams with Hurts playing, and the Eagles are currently 4.5-point road dogs.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Odds | Week 16
- Spread
Eagles +4.5
Note: I personally wagered the Eagles +5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -210 - Over/Under
Under 46.5
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model had an excellent Week 15 last week. Thirty wagers were placed, and we hit on 24 of them.
We’ve started Week 16 off to a 2-0 start from Thursday Night Football. For the season, the model is 101-45-5* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Philadelphia vs. Dallas prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
This Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction has been made a bit more challenging with the absence of Hurts. Prior to the announcement of his injury, I would have been thrilled to take the Eagles with the points. The Behavior Bets model was projecting a one-point Eagles win.
Hurts being out and Gardner Minshew coming in complicates matters. But, no worries. We have re-run this matchup through the model and have a new projection. The Eagles’ offense is where we’ll start because that is the part of the environment most radically changed.
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Prior to his injury, Jalen Hurts was third in the league in EPA per play among active players, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. Hurts was leading an Eagles offense that was sixth in the league in points scored per minute of possession time, with just under .9 points per minute.
Taking those things together means Hurts’ absence will no doubt leave a void. The question is, what does Minshew bring to the table?
By replacing his career EPA with Hurts’ 2022 EPA and putting that into the weighted formula accounting for plays per game, possession time in 2022 and possession time on the road, etc., I project Philadelphia to lose out on around 6.1 points in this game.
That took them from winning this game to now losing by an average of…4.5 points, which just so happens to be the spread. I must be on to something. Luckily for me, I took this game when the spread was at five points and picked the Eagles to cover. What’s different now is I have taken the Cowboys to win.
Now, there is still some value to be had here. Minshew is widely regarded as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. Everything else in Philadelphia’s offensive environment is staying in place. Don’t be shocked if the Eagles keep this close, and even pull off an upset.
Dallas’ defense has been trending in the wrong direction. Since their bye week, they’ve given up 13% more points per minute of possession time to opponents. On top of that, they are giving up 69% more points per minute overall in those five games than they were prior to the bye.
This defense is not the dominant force it was earlier in the season, and there are ways to exploit them. Minshew isn’t a rookie coming off the bench cold. He’s been here before, performed well, and has had a full week of practice with the starters. I’m not sure it’ll be enough to win, but I think it will be enough to cover.
The model is projecting an even 4.5 difference in this game on average, so to a bettor, it’s risky for sure. But then, so is every bet.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction
Cowboys 24, Eagles 20
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