If you’re making an Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints Thursday Night Football NFL DFS lineup in Week 7, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Cardinals Considerations
The Cardinals are either better or worse than their 2-4 record — it depends on what we think of their two comeback wins, the loss of Marquise Brown, and return of DeAndre Hopkins, the arrival of Robbie Anderson, and the state of their backfield. So, no problem figuring this out.
Ah, but we have to try. Since starting last season 7-0, Arizona has fallen on hard times. It’s not hard to understand why a passing attack that looked so promising in the first half of last season has often floundered. Various key injuries, a notable suspension, and the offseason departure of Christian Kirk, . . . and so much more.
So here’s the reality. No one knows how much work Hopkins and Anderson will get or how their workload will impact guys like Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. We can guess that this receiving corps might be as crowded as ever. Or, it might take a week or two for Hopkins — and particularly Anderson — to acclimate (or re-acclimate, in Hopkins’ case) to this offense.
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Then there’s the backfield. To what extent can we trust Eno Benjamin? He’ll be among one of the priciest Cardinals in DFS, which is odd given his disappointing output last weekend against Seattle. The Saints won’t be any easier.
It’s fair to wonder if anyone besides Kyler Murray is “safe.” But for Murray to be worth his DFS price, he’ll need to hit more than his season averages of 244 passing yards and one passing TD. And given the serious questions at RB, Murray might need to do even more on the ground, above and beyond his solid 39 rushing yards per contest.
Saints Considerations
The 2-4 Saints are facing arguably more serious challenges and questions. While Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry remain hobbled, Jameis Winston is nearing a return, but will remain on the bench for now. The 32-year-old Mark Ingram is limited. Taysom Hill? Who know what he’ll do week-to-week: either win you your fantasy league or crush your dreams.
There are two current “safe” plays on this team: Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Both are poised to lead the Saints’ offense, and they could realistically combine for 38 or more targets-plus-touches. In other words, while Arizona might be able to lock down one, the better bet is on both meeting their high expectations.
In particular, Kamara is a fascinating case as we approach this DFS lineup. He’ll be perhaps the most expensive option. Yet he’s matched his career 4.6 yards per carry, and although the touchdowns haven’t come yet, I’m betting he’ll average at least 0.6 per game the rest of the season. He averaged 0.92 entering this year. So not a stretch at all to anticipate a rebound.
Can we rely on anyone else — even a cheap flier? Quite possibly. Adam Trautman is also hurt, opening the door for more volume to guys that might have been unstartable a few weeks ago.
Top DFS Lineup for Cardinals vs. Saints
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
While I debated placing Kamara in the Captain slot, Murray has a higher floor and comparable ceiling, and he’s priced only $900 more than Kamara in this coveted position. So we’ll roll with Murray ($11,200 normally, $16,800 as Captain) as our Captain. He’s joined by the ever-dependable Ertz ($7,000).
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I’m steering clear of Hopkins, Anderson, and Moore. Any of these three guys could step up. Any could flop. Ertz brings steady volume regardless of the WR situation.
The other players in this DFS lineup are Saints. Given the pressure on Murray to carry this team a little more than usual in a must-win game, I believe he’ll do more on the ground and would put his odds of netting a rushing score above 50/50.
The other four slots go to Kamara ($10,600), Olave ($7,400), Marquez Callaway ($4,800), and Juwan Johnson ($3,000). To be clear, I believe Callaway and Johnson are better plays than comparably priced combos like Hill and Keaontay Ingram, or Tre’Quan Smith and Trey McBride, or Moore and . . . well, Ingram or McBride.
There’s a steep talent drop-off from Johnson to the remaining options. Callaway and Johnson should combine for 10+ targets. Together, they’re on par with one “great” receiver. That’s good enough for me.
