Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette was left for dead after the Jacksonville Jaguars cut him prior to the 2020 season. Fournette latched on with the Bucs and seized hold of their lead running back role en route to their Super Bowl victory. Last season, Fournette proved he still has the ability that made him a first-round pick in 2017. What is Fournette’s fantasy football outlook, and where does his current ADP sit heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Leonard Fournette’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s fascinating that Fournette’s career was largely viewed as a disappointment prior to last season. As a rookie in 2017, he averaged 17.7 PPR fantasy points per game. In his second season, he played just eight games due to injury but averaged a respectable 15.1 ppg. Fournette then followed that up with 17.3 ppg in 2019.
For some reason, this led to the Jaguars cutting him prior to the 2020 season. Fournette closed the 2020 season on a tear, including the playoffs, and entered the 2021 season as the favorite to lead a committee with Ronald Jones in Tampa Bay.
Instead of languishing away in a timeshare, Fournette quickly seized control of the Bucs’ backfield and established himself not only as their three-down back but as an elite RB1 in fantasy. He averaged 18.3 ppg and finished as the overall RB4 on the season (minimum of eight games played).
This offseason, Fournette signed a three-year extension with the Buccaneers, and Tom Brady elected to return. Entering the 2022 season, Fournette is being respected as an RB1, but he still appears to be undervalued.
How the Buccaneers’ depth chart impacts Leonard Fournette’s fantasy projection for the season
Brady’s decision to return set the stage for Fournette to be really valuable as a fantasy asset once again in 2022. Everything about Fournette’s profile and the Buccaneers’ depth chart points to another elite season as long as he can stay healthy.
Tampa Bay let Jones walk. Their backfield is now Fournette as the clear lead back, with Rachaad White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn seemingly vying for the backup rusher, with Giovani Bernard as the satellite back.
Even with Bernard active, Fournette was still a big factor in the passing game. He averaged 6.75 targets per game without Bernard but still 5.9 targets per game with him. As a whole, Fournette’s six targets per game led all running backs (tied with D’Andre Swift).
Fournette averaged 4.5 yards per carry while being the most heavily targeted running back in the NFL. He plays on one of the best offenses in football (the Buccaneers’ 63 touchdowns were second-most in the NFL last season behind the Cowboys), which gives him a high TD upside (Fournette’s 54 red-zone touches were third-most among RBs).
With Antonio Brown gone and Chris Godwin still a question mark as to how much he will play in the early part of the season, this offense is going to be even more consolidated than last season. Brady will likely funnel touches to Fournette and Mike Evans. I don’t consider Julio Jones as any sort of threat to Fournette’s target share.
Expect Fournette to once again command one of the highest opportunity shares in the NFL. He’s an elite RB1 in every sense of the term. The only risk associated with Fournette is injury. Fournette has dealt with soft tissue issues throughout his career and missed the final two games of the 2021 season with a strained hamstring. But all running backs are risks to get injured. A healthy Fournette has a great chance to reach 20 ppg this season.
Fournette’s ADP for 2022
Fournette’s ADP is inexplicably in the late-second round to early-third round. All summer, I expected this to rise. It hasn’t. Fantasy managers are apparently afraid to draft last year’s RB3 because … reasons? I legitimately have no plausible explanation.
All I know is I’m taking Fournette in the second round every time. I don’t care where I pick or who is on the board (assuming all the guys that typically go in the first round go in the first round). Fournette is ranked as my RB7 as well as the RB8 and 12th player overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. The only reason I’m not taking him in the first round is that I want the value that comes with waiting until the second.
It’s exceedingly rare to get a three-down workhorse who catches passes and gets goal-line carries anywhere in fantasy drafts. Fournette is that guy at any point in the second round. Push the button on Fournette, and then push the button a few more times just to make sure you get him.
