Mike Evans is at that point in his career where his dynasty fantasy football value has to be impacted by his age. He remains one of the better wide receivers in the NFL, both in real life and fantasy. Yet, he’s much closer to the end than the beginning. As he enters the final portion of his career, how should dynasty fantasy football managers value Evans heading into the 2022 season?
Mike Evans’ dynasty profile for 2022
Evans is about to embark on his ninth professional season. Few players, if any, have been more reliable since Evans was drafted in the first round in 2014. He’s never going to be the guy that puts together a monster, league-winning season. But he’ll never be the reason you lose. There’s tremendous value in a guy like that.
In 2017, Evans averaged 13.4 PPR fantasy points per game. It was the worst season of his career, and he still finished as a mid-WR2. Evans has never finished worse than a WR2 and actually has two top-five finishes (2016 and 2019). His best season was his 18.8 ppg in 2019.
In two seasons with Tom Brady, Evans has been the same sure thing he’s been his entire career. He averaged 15.5 ppg in 2020 and 16.4 ppg in 2021.
In 2022, I expect Evans to be exactly who he’s been. A consistent, reliable producer. What value does this have for dynasty managers, and how should they handle Evans going forward?
Fantasy projection for Evans
His career consistency notwithstanding, Evans’ dynasty value was headed downward following Brady’s retirement. Fortunately, Brady just can’t give it up. His return catapults Evans right back to where he’s always been.
Evans’ target share has dropped considerably since Brady took over as the Bucs’ quarterback. During the Jameis Winston era, Evans’ lowest single-season target share was 22.4%. With Brady, Evans saw 18% in 2020 and 16.4% in 2021. You may be wondering how he’s been able to maintain his production. Touchdowns.
Evans has always been a phenomenal red-zone target as he stands at an imposing 6’5″, 231 pounds. He’s just taken things to another level with Brady. Over the past two seasons, Evans has scored 27 total touchdowns. For context, he scored 21 the previous three seasons combined. Typically, touchdowns aren’t something you want to bank on repeating, but when it comes to Evans, the usage with Brady speaks for itself. I fully expect Evans to score 12+ TDs for a third consecutive season, health permitting.
And speaking of health, Evans has been surprisingly durable throughout his career. He’s dealt with multiple hamstring strains over the years, but he’s never out for an extended period of time. Out of a possible 129 games, Evans has played in 122 of them. It doesn’t get much better than that.
With Brady back and Russell Gage poised to fill in for Chris Godwin as he works his way back from a late-season ACL tear, Evans should be in his usual role doing his usual thing. He is on the WR1/2 border, as always.
What is Evans’ future beyond 2022?
Evans is signed through his age-33 season. He will be with the Bucs for the remainder of his fantasy-relevant career. I say fantasy-relevant because they may cut him at some point, but if they do, it’ll be because he just isn’t good anymore.
At 29 years old, fantasy managers should feel confident that Evans has at least three productive years remaining. His skill set is interesting as it pertains to him aging. It doesn’t typically age well, but given his size, he very well may be able to extend his career by transitioning into a situational red-zone threat as he moves toward his mid-30s.
Dynasty managers definitely need to start thinking about the end of Evans. It’s not an immediate concern, but it’s not that far off.
There’s also the issue of his quarterback. Evans has really only received passes from Winston and Brady. It’s entirely possible Evans has Brady for the remainder of his relevant career. It’s also possible Brady is back for one more run, and that’s it. The last thing dynasty managers want is for Evans to have to deal with a new quarterback at 30+ years old.
What can fantasy managers expect from Evans?
Quite simply — more of the same. The Bucs’ offense should look exactly like it has the past two seasons. Evans remains the WR1 and top red-zone threat in the passing game. They’re going to score a ton of points. He’s a WR1/2.
Dynasty managers looking to win in 2022 will get the most value out of Evans. I’m quite bullish on him this season. If he’s on the roster of a rebuilding team, give that manager future pieces for your win-now guy. If you already have Evans, hang onto him. There’s an outside chance he can have a career year in 2022, especially if Godwin starts the season on the PUP list and Rob Gronkowski elects to retire.