The NFL picks market is full of small sample sizes. Often, we see the majority of NFL bettors decide their picks against the spread based on what they saw the previous week. Seeing as how the NFL is riddled with small samples, it’s easy to fall prey to recency bias. So how can we distance ourselves from the pack and make smart wagers? By determining which teams might have gotten lucky by using regression to the mean in some statistical areas. I’ll attempt to pinpoint teams who are worth a play and those who are worth a fade going forward.
Week 3 was the worst week for the betting crew at Pro Football Network, and we still came out positive. I went 9-2 between picks in my article and ones sent out from the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA). If you’re a subscriber, you need to be following our All Access account. You can check out the Sheep Report every Tuesday for a weekly recap of our bets.
Week 3 NFL Picks Recap
Despite going 9-2, I had some egregious calls and got lucky on my biggest play. We’ll start with the egregious calls. I took the Tampa Bay spread early in the week (-6.5) as I thought there was a genuine chance it would go past the seven. It never seemed even to get close. In fairness to me, I took it before Daniel Jones was named the starter. Maybe it gets there if Eli Manning remained the starter, but we’ll never know.
The second was my early stance on the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens total (over 54.5). I took the tail end of a big move, thinking I was getting ahead. It didn’t end up mattering because the total went over every number throughout the week, but my process needs to be better. I promise to be better with these early-week NFL picks in the future.
My tides turned on the Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers game. The 49ers dominated the Steelers: Pittsburgh had an abysmal 35% success rate according to Sharp Football Stats, and the 49ers outgained them in 1.3 yards per play via Team Rankings as well.
The saving grace for the Steelers was turnovers, as they finished (+3) in the turnover department. They did hit Jimmy Garoppolo 12 times after the 49ers QB had gotten hit just four times the first two games, so they deserve credit for putting pressure on him. That being said, they did not deserve to cover this game. I’d rather be lucky than good, but my days of including Pittsburgh in my NFL picks might be over. We will take our money and run.
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Looking Ahead
Let’s take a look at teams who had a positive yards per play differential but lost their game in Week 3.
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Below are the teams who had a positive turnover differential but lost their game in Week 3.
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NFL Picks
Two teams had a positive yard per play differential but lost their game that I plan to back in Week 3.
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers showed up in both tables above. They lost that game due to the struggles of rookie kicker Matt Gay. Gay missed two extra points, as well as the game-winning field goal after an egregious coaching decision by Bruce Arians.
That makes the second coin-flip game the Buccaneers have lost this season due to bad variance. In Week 1 it was turnover variance against the 49ers, while this week it was missed kicks from their kicker. This team is very close to being 3-0, yet are now ten point underdogs to an underperforming Los Angeles Rams team.
Both teams are averaging 5.5 yards per play in the first three games of the year. The Rams defense is surrendering 4.7 yards per play, while the Buccaneers are giving up 5.1 yards per play. These teams have performed similarily the first three weeks, yet the Rams are still considered the Juggernauts they have been the past two years.
The offensive line has not been as good (13th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate) while Jared Goff still relies on Sean McVay to make all pre-snap reads for him.
I do have two concerns regarding the Buccaneers. The first is strictly anecdotal: how will Winston handle the decision to settle for a field goal once they were in position? Does he take that as a “slight” and let it get to him?
My second concern is the absence of Devin White. The fifth overall pick missed the game against the Giants, and the defense was shredded as a result. I don’t know if White has had that much of an impact yet, but it doesn’t help that he is likely to miss this game.
That said, the Buccaneers are one of my NFL picks. I don’t think this spread should be near as high as it is. If you can sell down to (+9.5/+9) for better odds, I would do that. Otherwise, I’m okay with taking a juiced (+10) or seeing if it dips below 10 for better odds.
Pick: Buccaneers +10 (-110) 1U
Washington Redskins
The Giants at Redskins point spread is one of the more interesting lines of the week. “Danny Dimes” led the Giants to their first win of the season in thrilling fashion, while Case Keenum imploded on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. You would think there would be an adjustment based on those two factors, but the opening line did not differentiate at all from the look-ahead line. That fact is a giant red flag to me in regards to the Giants.
Sports Books could have set this spread in the dead zone of four or five since you have to figure most public money would want to bet the Giants with their new star QB and fade the stinker the Redskins put up on Monday Night Football. Why, then, would the books open with an inferior spread?
I believe one reason is they are afraid of getting pounded by “sharp money” at a spread higher than three. The fact of the matter is, these teams are even at worse, with the Redskins slightly superior. There is a bit of speculation on my part in this angle, but it isn’t the only reason I like the Redskins as one of my NFL picks.
The Redskins offense is a bad matchup for the Giants defense. In reality, every matchup is a bad matchup as their stop unit is atrocious. This is especially true with the Redskins considering their pass-heavy approach. Washington has a 2.4/1 pass to run ratio, are passing on 68% of their plays and have the fourth-most pass attempts in the league. They have not been terrible either, ranking 15th in yards per attempt and fifth in expected points added via Pro Football Reference. That does not bode well for the 31st ranked DVOA passing defense in the league.
Despite getting trucked on the scoreboard Monday night, they were mostly dead even in yards per play with the Bears. Keenum is erratic, but this pass defense isn’t good enough to take advantage of that.
Washington is one of my favorite plays on the board. I like the over as well, but not at the current number. I suggest waiting until the weekend to see if there is some buyback on the under. It has jumped up three points from the opening number, so you’re better off waiting to see if it drops by a point or two.
Be sure you’re following the PFN All Access twitter account (@PFN365AA) as I will be looking at the player props once released. I can almost guarantee I will add some player props as part of my NFL picks from this game as well.
Pick: Redskins +3, -120 1U
New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills
My play here is mostly on the energy I expect the Bills and their fans to bring. This is undoubtedly the biggest game in recent Buffalo history. New Era Field (formerly Ralph Wilson Stadium aka “The Ralph) is one of the few venues which still provides a true home-field advantage. That place will be electric on Sunday.
The Bills have also played exceptionally well on defense. They rank as the 6th best defense in DVOA, allowing the 6th fewest yards per play in the league. Their opponents have been somewhat suspect, but they have delivered solid performances thus far.
Having said all of that, I’m not entirely in love with the full game spread (+7.5). The motivation and energy factor are only good for roughly the first half of a game. While New England has also had a cupcake schedule in the first three weeks, their defense appears to be on another level.
While Edelman is banged up and they are dealing with some offensive line injuries, I do expect the Patriots to put some points on the board. I think they play a close, low scoring game in the first half, followed by the Patriots making adjustments and getting the offense going in the 2nd half. 24-14 is a genuine possibility.
For that reason, I’m going with the Bills first half spread of (+4) for one unit. The energy should last throughout the first half, and I expect both offenses to struggle to move the ball out of the gate. I also like the full game under for an NFL pick, as I don’t think the Bills will score enough points to challenge the 42.5 which currently sits on the boards.
Pick: Bills 1H (+4) (-110) 1U
Under 42.5 (-110) 1U
Totals Picks
Earlier in the week, I tweeted from the PFN All Access Account (@PFN365AA) to grab the Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals over 47.5, and the Carolina Panthers/Houston Texans over of 46.5. I’ll touch on those below as well as some other plays on totals I’m considering.
Seahawks/Cardinals
Every game for the Cardinals’ opponents is a pace up game, as no one is running a faster pace in neutral game scripts than the Cardinals. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks are fifth in pace when leading by seven or more, while the Cardinals are first in pace while trailing by seven or more. There will be no weather concerns as this game will be played in a dome.
On top of the high pace, we have two bad defenses squaring off against each other. Both teams rank in the bottom 3rd in Football Outsiders defensive line adjusted sack rate through the first three weeks. Wilson and Murray will see a cleaner pocket than usual against two sub-par secondaries. The total currently sits at 48, so hopefully, you got the half-point of value on Tuesday. If not, I still like it at 48.
Pick: Seahawks/Cardinals Over 47.5 (-110) 1U
Panthers/Texans
Here we have another dome game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. At this point, it is fair to say Cam Newton was limiting the offense in the first two weeks. It was only the Cardinals, but Kyle Allen played a fantastic game in the desert. Houston has a solid front, but a beatable secondary. They rank 18th in pass defense DVOA thus far, making this a winnable matchup for Allen.
Carolina has ranked 6th in pass defense DVOA thus far, but Deshaun Watson is good enough to win any match up. Houston ranks 10th in situation neutral pace, which bodes well for the over considering the spread is only four points.
This number has only been bet up a point from the opener of 46. I think 47 is worth an NFL pick if you did not get the 46.5 I suggested earlier in the week.
Pick: Panthers/Texans Over 46.5 (-110) 1U
Teaser
My teaser this week is a two teamer. There wasn’t a ton I liked in the teaser department aside from the Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are catching two on the road, so sportsbooks agree they’re slightly better than the Bears. This spread should probably be closer to a pick in my opinion, but I’m not overly excited to be the Vikings at a dead number of (+2). I do like teasing them through the three and seven against an inferior opponent, however.
The second leg is the Chiefs. I was one of the nerds screaming regression regarding Patrick Mahomes. That regression could still come, or Mahomes could be an outlier and the greatest quarterback we have ever seen. Betting on the latter isn’t smart, but in this case, we’re just betting him to beat Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions in a dome. I’ll take my chances with Mahomes against Patricia.
Pick: 6 pt teaser (-120): Minnesota +8.5, Chiefs -1 2U
**Additional Picks**
These are NFL picks for Week 4 that have been added after the article has been published.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been one of the more polarizing teams this young season. Well, at least for those who believed they would be Super Bowl contenders this year. To say they have underperformed their expectations thus far would be an understatement.
However, we need to have a “short memory” when it comes to betting. Remove your personal biases and bet numbers, not teams. This is one of those situations. I think this spread is inflated after the Ravens put up a “nice” loss in Kansas City and Freddie Kitchen made that egregious mistake at the end of their game on Sunday night football.
The spread opened at Baltimore (-4.5) or so, and was quickly bet up to (-7). We’re going to take advantage of the tail end of that move and take Cleveland (+7). It’s scary, I know, but there is one large misconception I continue to see in several analysts regarding the Ravens.
Baltimore does not have a good defense. They rank just 17th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate and 20th in pass defense DVOA. It makes sense when you look at their personnel: they don’t have a prominent pass rusher and have several injuries in their secondary.
This team has been overrated after their week one demolishing of the Miami Dolphins. Week two they failed to cover against the Cardinals at home. Kliff Kingsbury elected to kick two field goals inside of the 10 yards line. That was less than optimal. And while I loved the approach the Ravens took in Kansas City last week, they were outgained in yards per play by 2.1. Some garbage time touchdowns made that game look closer than it was. We have seen value the past two weeks against the Ravens, and I see it again here.
Despite being outgained in yards per play by 1.1 and being (-2) in turnover differential against the Rams, the Browns were in a position to tie that game Sunday night. Would this spread have reached seven if that were the case? No. We get a bit of overreaction to one lousy call by Kitchens, and people overrating the Ravens based off their week one blow out over the Dolphins, a fraudulent cover in Kansas City and a perceived good defense that is not supported by numbers or personnel.
Pick: Browns +7, (-115) 1U
Summary
That’s it for this week. Good luck, and let’s hope we’re profitable again. Be sure to follow the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA) for live updates, Ben Rolfe’s totals article, Chris Smith’s article, Jason Sarney’s player props article and listen to the Against the Spread podcast with Jason Sarney and Ryan Gosling for more NFL picks!
James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James.
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