Even during a week that many believed was difficult to handicap, the Pro Football Network betting team was still able to pull out profits. Making NFL picks is a volatile profession, but with persistence and a lot of research, finding spots you like can be easy. Week 3 had some of the biggest spreads in history, with two teams being favored by more than three touchdowns. Only one covered, while the other faced unfortunate turnovers. The top teams in the league continued to impress, while the bottom few continued to fade into oblivion.
NFL Picks: The PFN Rundown
An up-and-down week as a whole for the PFN team. Some had impressive results while others struggled with market reaction and bad beats. Our goal is to be profitable as a team each week, whether we struggle individually or not. Whether it be on our Against the Spread podcast, our numerous articles on the site, or our live Twitter plays, we will always do our best to bring the best NFL picks! Here is a look at how each handicapper did!
Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert
As our totals expert, Ben faced the toughest week. The NFL has been impacted by the number of holding penalties being called so far this season. Oddsmakers weren’t taking this into consideration, and Ben was able to profit for the first two weeks. As Ben mentioned in his article this past week, holding penalties and all-around sloppy offensive play has allowed for unders to be one of the most profitable looks.
“This season so far has been about low scoring games, with the under going 20-12 through the first 32 games.”
This past week, offenses seemed to ameliorate and reports surfaced that the NFL was going to be investigating the excessive holding penalties. The market fell back to the mean and overs dominated in the early afternoon slate. It looked bleak for Ben early on when teams decided shootouts would be the way to go. Sunday night, the Browns and the Rams tried their hardest to keep this game far from the total, giving Ben his first win on the day. With the market readjusting and Ben doing the same, expect a big bounceback next week.
2019 Record: 8-7, (-.6 unit deficit)
Jason Sarney: The Prop Master
Jason came into the weekend with an impressive record. He continued to roll with a huge two-unit win on Mark Ingram‘s yardage over prop. Ingram went on to have an impressive day with 103 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers decided to allow his defense to win their game, going up early and then putting the offense into cruise control. He missed his over yardage prop, as well as his over touchdown prop.
2019 Record: 9-9, (1.2 unit profit)
Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist
With a week that we all thought would be tricky to handicap, our expert came in with a small card. His “Tommy Teaser” was an easy winner with Minnesota and Kansas City leading for most of their games. His first half “Patty Parlay” came close, but the Dolphins decided to show up for the first two quarters against Dallas. Overall, it was a profitable day for Chris with an impressive 3-1 record.
2019 Record: 10-5 (5 unit profit)
James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert
James came into the week as our most profitable handicapper, and he continued to bankrupt sportsbooks. Whether he was tweeting live plays or putting them out in his article, James concocted a nearly perfect week. He rode the coattails of a huge performance by Jameis Winston for two winning plays with his yardage and touchdown overs.
The winning continued right into the night with a Cleveland +10 teaser win. There is no one hotter right now, and his overall NFL picks record proves it. He went an incredible 8-2 this week.
— Mr. Smith ? (@ChrisSmithPFN) September 23, 2019
2019 Record: 15-3-2 (11.1 units in profit)
Against the Spread Podcast NFL Picks
As Jason and I had said on the show, we were not big fans of this card. Luckily, we were still able to eke out a profit. Our favorite play of the slate was the Cardinals at home against a backup quarterback. Unfortunately, we were not prepared for a legendary performance from Carolina’s new superstar Kyle Allen. He lit up Arizona’s weak defense for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards.
Things were looking bleak until the NFC North decided to dominate at home. Both the Vikings and the Packers took care of business to get our teaser cashed. We also hit the under in the Buffalo and Cincinnati game. We didn’t have a lot of NFL picks, but we were efficient with the few we had.
2019 Record: 3-1-1 (1.75 units in profit)
The sheep and the herd
The public was not as profitable this week, with a number of publically backed teams failing to cover. Kansas City opened at -4.5 against Baltimore and was bet up all the way to -6.5. 64% of the public was on KC, unfortunately, they won by 5. The opening number was a winner – but as we know, the opening numbers are just for sharps. The public will rarely bet into a number seven days before the game takes place.
On the bright side, the public also pounded the over, it opened at 52 and was bet up to 55.5 at one point. 66% of the public was on the over, and it covered every number from opening to close with a total of 61.
Week 4 Early Herd Action
Money is coming in on the big names once again. The sharps jumped at some numbers that were short as soon as they opened. Lines are moving fast – if you want to guarantee value you need to get on them soon.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Buffalo: 97% of the money and 77% of the bets on NE
New England is favored on the road by more than a touchdown against a strong Buffalo defense. The number opened at -6.5 and was quickly bet above the key number of seven. Sharps and the public are all on New England, with 97% of the early action on the favorite. Oddsmakers will hope that bringing the number to above a touchdown will bring money back on the home dog side. I doubt that will happen. New England will continue to be bet up, and I will join the herd and take the favorite in this one. Buffalo hasn’t proven that they can compete with real competition yet, barely beating three subpar teams. The Patriots are in another league, and this will be the game that they use to prove it.
Seattle Seahawks (-4) at Arizona: 88% of the money and 78% of the bets on Seattle
Seattle is coming into this game off a terrible loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints at home this weekend. They head to Arizona a four-point favorite after this one was already bet up from the opening number of three. Arizona’s offense looked better against Carolina, but their defense is incapable of making a stop. It makes sense that the sharps are on Seattle – even in their loss, they put up big offensive numbers. Oddsmakers and sharps are expecting another similar game to Arizona and the Panthers, high-scoring and the road team getting the win. I will join the herd on this one, take the away team minus the points. The over 47 is also enticing, with 94% of the bets on the high total. I also lean over.
It is a long and difficult season in the world of NFL picks. The team has now won All-Access pass members over $500 of profit with $25 unit count. We will continue to take positive weeks when they come.
Current 2019 Pro Football Network Record: 51-29-3