After two strong weeks of NFL picks to start the season, we came back down to Earth in Week 3 with a shocking 1-4 week. Fortunately, the Browns and Rams offenses stuttered enough to give us our sole victory of the week. However, even with a lousy few days, our record this season is still 8-7. What is important is that we take what happened during Week 3 and learn from it. Let’s take a look at what went wrong.
The nightmare
The day started badly with the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions going score for score in the first quarter. The Eagles were surprisingly active in the first half after struggling the first two weeks. However, the biggest killer was the kick return touchdown from Jamal Agnew. Plays like that are difficult for under bets because they put six or seven points on the board without taking much time off the clock. There ended up being 30 points in the first half, so this was a bad loss with a sprinkling of bad luck.
Special teams and defensive touchdowns were the issues in two of the other losses. The New England Patriots had two sloppy plays, which included a muffed punt and an interception return for a touchdown due to their back-up rookie quarterback. This gave the New York Jets 14 points and sunk the bet by a single point. There is really nothing that can be done about a loss with those errors from teams. You have to just eat it and move on.
The New Orleans Saints scored a return touchdown and a defensive touchdown to get up big on the Seattle Seahawks. From that moment, our bet was done. While the game was tight, the Seahawks would keep their offense firing on all cylinders. Once they got down, they aimed for big plays. This was a rough loss thanks to two sloppy plays from a team that is usually not sloppy.
The final loss was thanks to a garbage-time touchdown by the Oakland Raiders. However, that game was surprisingly active. The Minnesota Vikings run game had their way with a Raiders defense, which had been strong in their Week 2 game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, the biggest blow to our chances came Sunday morning when it was revealed that the league had discussed offensive holding with the officials. Offensive holding had been killing drives this season. In 2018, there was an average of 2.67 offensive holding calls per game. Through two weeks of the 2019 NFL season, that was over 4.5 per game. In Week 3, that number dropped to under three per game, with a large chunk of those coming on Thursday Night Football. It would appear the official’s emphasis on offensive holding is over. Therefore, expect more overs to hit going forward. In Week 3, ten games saw the over hit compared to just an average of just six through the first two weeks. With this new knowledge under our belts, let’s take a look at this week’s NFL picks.
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Washington Redskins at New York Giants
There is no hotter story in the NFL right now than Daniel Jones. Frankly, to be talking about a positive story like Jones is a relief after the dark and gloomy Antonio Brown stories from the past few weeks. Jones was superb against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, adding two touchdowns with his legs to his two in the air. Now, he faces a Washington Redskins defense that has struggled this season.
The Redskins are allowing an average of 31.67 points per game. They are also coming off a Monday Night Football game, so they will have had a little bit less time to watch film and plan. Based on one week, it would be wrong to make sweeping statements about Jones’ talent, but can he put up another good week against a mediocre defense? Absolutely, which is why this game is in the top spot of my NFL picks.
It takes two to make a total, and we need the Redskins to do their bit as well. The bad news is that their offense was shellacked by the Bears. The good news is that the Giants defense is not very good, and not just in one area of the field either. They have major problems in their secondary and their defensive line is not strong either. Things might change if Dwayne Haskins Jr. is named the starter, but I expect Case Keenum to be able to bounce back this week and put up some solid points. After all, the Redskins averaged 24 points against the Dallas Cowboys and Eagles in the first two weeks, and those defenses are much better than the Giants.
The Redskins against the New York Giants are not usually entertaining games, but with the Giants’ defense this bad and the new American hero, Daniel Jones under center, this one might just be. This line can be grabbed at 48.5 in some places, but it is more commonly found at 49-or-49.5. I am happy taking anything up to 50, so just look for the best value you can find.
1u – Over 49 Total Points | -110
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
After looking at the most exciting storyline, we circle back to the most disappointing in the Cleveland Browns. So much hype and expectations have come crashing down as the Browns slumped to 1-2 with two losses at home. However, while the Browns offense is disappointing, their defense is looking strong. They restricted the Los Angeles Rams to 20 points last week and allowed the Jets to score just three the week before. That defensive line is a monster, and it should hide what is a concerning, injury-plagued secondary.
The Baltimore Ravens have been very impressive this year, but they stuttered last week when facing the Chiefs. The Browns actually have a better defense than Kansas City. Lamar Jackson‘s running should negate some of the Browns defensive line strengths, but even so, this game should see the score remain on the low side. The Ravens only really opened the playbook last week when they had to. With the Browns offense struggling, they likely will not need to unleash their offense this week. Therefore, expect to see this one played slow early on, which should set it up nicely for the under as part of our NFL picks this week.
1u – Under 46 Total Points | -110
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
This game seems to get uglier the more I look at it. The Tennessee Titans were humiliated last week in Jacksonville, and the Atlanta Falcons continue to be inconsistent. The Titans defensive line is not incredible, but they are capable of shutting down a team with an offensive line as bad as the Falcons. Equally, the Falcons defense is pretty solid. They are not great, but then neither is the Titans offense. This should be a low scoring affair between two teams who have yet to really work out their offensive identities through three games.
1u – Under 46 Total Points | -110
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
I cannot trust the Raiders offense enough to include them in my NFL picks by taking the game total over. Instead, I will focus on the Colts. The Colts offense is doing fine, considering they had the Andrew Luck bombshell in Week 3 of the preseason. They stuttered against a very good Titans defense on the road. Outside of that, they have scored 51 points in the other two weeks against arguably better defenses than the Raiders. This game should be one the Colts dominate, and 27 points should be more than possible against a team that gave up an average of 31 points in the last two weeks.
1u – Colts Over 26.5 Total Points | -105
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
For the final game of my NFL picks column, I am looking towards an interesting game in Arizona. This game is an interesting one because looking at either offense, you do not immediately think over. However, the defensive woes and the offensive pace of play that the Arizona Cardinals bring to the table always puts the over in play. So far this season, the Cardinals are allowing an average of 29.33 points-per-game and scoring an average of 21.33 points-per-game. Equally, the Seahawks have been in some interesting games, with the last two averaging a total of 57 points. This game should be high scoring and a lot of fun, as Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray go head-to-head.
1u – Over 47.5 Total Points | -110
Ben Rolfe is a gambling writer and editor for the NFC South and North at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and bets, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.
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