Should you draft Chris Carson in fantasy football this year?

One of, if not the most underrated running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson once again appears to be a value based on his current ADP. Consistently garnering workhorse-type opportunities, should fantasy managers target Carson on draft day as a cornerstone player of their roster in 2021?

Chris Carson is a vastly underrated workhorse running back

Although he was limited to only 12 games last season (foot sprain), Carson averaged a career-best 4.8 yards per carry while toting the ball 141 times for 681 yards and 5 touchdowns. In addition, he finished third on the team with 37 receptions and caught a career-high 4 touchdowns out of the backfield.

Carson was coming off an RB12 finish in 2019 and an RB15 finish in 2018. Moreover, he racked up 2,810 scrimmage yards on 582 touches. Carson had back-to-back 1,150-yard rushing seasons.

Over the last three years, Carson has averaged 19.1 opportunities, 92.1 total yards, 0.66 TDs, and 15.5 fantasy points per game. He’s been an RB1 in 37% of his games and an RB2 or better in 74% during this stretch. Yet, it seems no one really notices his production.

Perhaps it was because Carson was not a highly-regarded draft pick coming out of college, going in the seventh round. But do you know who did notice? The Seattle Seahawks. 

In the offseason, the Seahawks re-signed Carson to a three-year, $24.6 million deal that voids to two years at $10.425 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. That is not insignificant money. 

This is also a team whose philosophy is that the running game sets up Russell Wilson and the passing attack. With Carson as the spearhead of this offense, he is primed for another massive workload in 2021.

Should the injuries of 2020 and new coordination worry fantasy managers?

At some point, workloads catch up with players, especially running backs — unless your name is Derrick Henry. But he is the exception to virtually every rule. There is concern that this is happening to Carson.

For as sensational as Carson is when on the field, he has yet to play in all 16 games. To add context, only three top-20 running backs played in all 16 games last season. Those were Henry, J.D. McKissic, and Nyheim Hines. So an outlier and two change-of-pace receiving backs. Outside of that, guys miss games all the time. But there is starting to be a concern about Carson and how the Seahawks will utilize him to ensure he gets through the season.

His rushing style invites contact, which leads to wear and tear on the body. The Seahawks are well aware of this, and we saw them limit his touches, especially carries. After averaging 17.6 carries and 18.5 carries in 2018 and 2019, respectively, Carson averaged just 11.8 per game last season. Given the monetary investment Seattle placed on Carson, there is a chance they choose to manage his touches and snaps to get him through his contract. 

Would the Seahawks actually let Russ cook in 2021?

One of the big talking points of the offseason was Wilson’s apparent unhappiness with the current offense and rumors going so far as to say he requested a trade. Although Wilson has since denied those claims, when you have someone as talented as him and has MVP-caliber skills, you have to utilize him.

This seems to be the plan as the Seahawks brought in a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron with what looks to be a balanced offense. It also seems to focus on controlling the tempo and “attacking defenses with explosive plays.” 

Now, I would not say that managers need to expect the Seahawks to turn into the Rams suddenly and unleash Wilson. At the end of the day, the head coach runs the show, and so long as Pete Carroll is chomping his gum on the sidelines, the Seahawks will run the ball.

Since 2018, the Seahawks have averaged 29.7 rushes (2nd), 140.2 yards (3rd), and 0.9 TDs per game. You don’t throw that out the window. In fact, Carroll has already stated he wants to run the ball more in 2021. Knowing that he will get his way, Carson once again is a focal point of the offense.

Should you draft Chris Carson in fantasy football this year?

I fully expect Carson to be the lead back and average around 15-18 opportunities per game in 2021. But there will be other running backs involved in the offense. Rashaad Penny is healthy (for now), and they also have DeeJay Dallas. Furthermore, Travis Homer is off the PUP list after passing his physical. 

As long as Carson is healthy and on the field, he will be an incredibly reliable option for fantasy football. In this explosive offense, Carson’s going to have plenty of scoring opportunities and volume. 

On Sleeper, Carson is currently the RB19 with an ADP of 35.4. On FleaFlicker, he sees a boost as the 15th RB off the board (28 ADP). 

As an RB2, Carson is an excellent pick in fantasy but is also in a jam-packed portion of the draft. At RB, he is flanked by D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, Gus Edwards, and James Robinson.

At WR, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, Robert Woods, and Amari Cooper are all going in this range as well. It all depends on how you like to construct your rosters — whether or not you went heavy RB or went WR/TE early in drafts. Regardless, you won’t go wrong with Carson should you draft him in fantasy this season.