Chris Carson’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

One of the most underrated running backs in all of the NFL, Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson continues to be forgotten about on draft day in fantasy. As a player who always tends to perform higher than his fantasy football outlook, what should you expect from Carson in 2021, and should you consider selecting him at his current ADP?

Chris Carson’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Is there a top-20 running back who gets talked about less than Carson? And in reality, I am selling him short as a top-20 back when he really has RB1 upside. Sure, he had a somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign, but Carson is a locked-in starter for fantasy when on the field. 

Although he was limited to 681 rushing yards on just 141 carries in 12 starts, Carson averaged a career-best 4.8 yards per carry last year. He even scored 5 touchdowns on the ground. In addition, he also finished third on the team with 37 receptions and caught a career-high 4 touchdowns out of the backfield.

Carson was coming off an RB12 finish in 2019 and an RB15 finish in 2018. Moreover, he racked up 2,810 scrimmage yards on 582 touches. Carson had back-to-back 1,150-yard rushing seasons.

Over the last three years, Carson has averaged 19.1 opportunities, 92.1 total yards, 0.66 TDs, and 15.5 fantasy points per game. During this stretch, he has been an RB1 in 37% of his games and an RB2 or better in 74%.

The Seahawks value Carson enough to do what most fans hate — pay a running back decent money. During the offseason, the Seahawks signed Carson to a two-year contract worth up to $14.6 million. The deal includes a voidable third year that would push the contract’s overall value up to $24.62 million.

What could hold Carson back from being a value for fantasy?

The only limiting factors for Carson are staying on the field and taking care of the ball. Since 2018, Carson has put the ball on the ground 11 times and missed seven games. Sure, Twitter will have a field day anytime Carson fumbles the ball and say he is going to get benched, but it never happens, plus money talks.

As to the injuries, there is a question about whether or not he will see the same volume or if the Seahawks will run the offense through Russell Wilson. Thus, preserving Carson for the duration of his contract. However, head coach Pete Carroll has stated he wants to run the ball more. And when you look at the rest of Seattle’s depth chart, there is little standing in Carson’s way for reps.

What cannot be debated is Carson is a valued member of a potent offense and is being undervalued in fantasy leagues. He has weekly low-end RB1 upside but can be grabbed on draft day as a low-end RB2.

Fantasy projection

As I touched on earlier, what remains to be seen is whether or not the team chooses to reign Carson’s workload back because he is so valuable. In the four games he missed last season (foot sprain), Seattle went 2-2. They can’t afford that with the NFC West set to be the hardest division in football. They averaged 4.4 yards per carry as a team, but Wilson scrambled for 130 of those yards. 

What’s interesting is that when he came back from his injury (Weeks 12-17), Carson saw his opportunities fall to only 12.5 rushes and 16 total opportunities per game. With that said, the Seahawks brought in a new OC in Shane Waldron with what looks to be a balanced offense. It also seems to focus on controlling the tempo and “attacking defenses with explosive plays.” 

For as much as we loved watching “Russ Cook,” so long as Carroll is there, the running game will be a priority. Since 2018, the Seahawks have averaged 29.7 rushes (2nd), 140.2 yards (3rd), and 0.9 TDs per game. You don’t throw that out the window. 

Carson will see the majority of those attempts and production. Throw in the 17-game pace for nearly 70 targets, and he ends up a complete steal. Current projections have Carson set to outperform expectations, rushing 250 times for close to 1,130-1,150 yards and 8 touchdowns. Additionally, he could see approximately 45 receptions for 350-360 yards and 2-3 more scores.

Chris Carson’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Carson is currently the RB18 with an ADP of 32.5 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where QBs have increased value, he slides to 48.9. On Fleaflicker, he is going as the RB18 with an ADP of 31.5. Meanwhile, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Carson is the RB19 with a 39.03 ADP.

Should you draft Chris Carson in 2021 for fantasy?

Carson might be one of the best values in fantasy. Period. 

Yes, Carson has never played in 16 games. But, guess what? Very few running backs have. In the past three seasons, Carson has played in 41 total games. That is more than Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. 

He is the undisputed and uncontested RB1 on a team loaded with talent that runs the ball nearly as much as anyone. What else could you want from your RB2 or an RB1 after selecting Davante Adams or even Travis Kelce? Anything later than that for Carson is simply cheating.