Rashaad Penny’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

As a former first-round pick, Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny has yet to live up to the expectations that come with that kind of draft capital. Can 2021 be the year that Penny puts it all together, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest another disappointing season and someone to continue avoiding at his current ADP?

Rashaad Penny’s fantasy outlook for 2021

In sports, we love to create narratives. Something we can talk about for a game or even a way to compare the careers of two players. This is something we start at the draft when we look at who was taken over someone else and go, “well, they better have a good career.” 

If we remember back to 2018, Seattle selected Penny out of San Diego State at pick No. 28 overall. Then at pick No. 35, some guy named Nick Chubb was selected by the Cleveland Browns. So, about that narrative and who made the better pick…

Look, hindsight is 20/20, and now that we know how things shaped out for the two backs, perhaps things might be different. Since entering the NFL, Penny has played in 27 games and on 17% of the offensive snaps. He has carried the ball 161 times for 823 yards and 5 touchdowns while adding 17 receptions (25 targets) for 158 yards and another score. That’s a per-year average of 473 total yards and 86.5 opportunities. 

For as much as people talk about Chris Carson and his injuries, Penny has had even worse luck. As a rookie, Penny suffered a knee injury that forced him to miss two games. In 2019, he missed three games due to a hamstring strain, and then in Week 14 tore his ACL. 

It would not be until Week 15 of last season that we would see Penny again. But even those were little more than tests to see where he was as he played on 11%, 6%, and finally 43% of the snaps, respectively, while seeing 11 opportunities.

Penny enters a critical season in 2021

Penny enters 2021 in a make-or-break year, but it’s also arguably his best chance yet to make the case that he deserves more touches. Beyond Carson, the Seahawks’ backfield is wide open, and it’s his job to lose. Carlos Hyde is gone, and Penny only has to hold off DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, and Alex Collins. 

The Seahawks declined Penny’s fifth-year option as expected, which means he is playing for a new contract. With little to show for in his three-year career, Penny is auditioning for not only his current job but to 31 other prospective teams. 

Penny says he “feels 100” after missing OTAs following a cleanup procedure on his knee earlier in the offseason. Despite the time resting, Penny says, “This is the lightest I’ve ever been. I feel very explosive. Honestly feel like I’m back in high school again, like, I feel way faster.”

What else do you expect him to say? Here’s the bottom line. If Penny can stay healthy, he could be a value for fantasy managers. Particularly if the Seahawks try to taper back Carson’s opportunities to keep both players on the field for the new 17-game schedule and a hopeful run into the playoffs. There could be some weeks where Penny has flex potential and even RB2 upside if Carson misses time.

Fantasy projection

For as much as we loved watching “Russ Cook,” so long as Pete Carroll is there, the running game will be a priority. Since 2018, the Seahawks have averaged 29.7 rushes (2nd), 140.2 yards (3rd), and 0.9 TDs per game. You don’t throw that out the window.

With that said, the Seahawks brought in a new OC in Shane Waldron with what looks to be a balanced offense. Moreover, the offense seems to focus on controlling the tempo and “attacking defenses with explosive plays.” 

Anytime you have an MVP-caliber QB like Russell Wilson, you have a dangerous offense. When you add in one of the best receiving duos in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, you have an offense the defense fears. That also makes it near impossible to sell out on the run. It’s why Carson faced a stacked box (8+ defenders in the box) only 11.3% of the time, which was the 10th-fewest of all RBs tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats.

When Penny has touched the ball, he’s had no issue getting yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per reception in 2018-2019. While I have Penny projected for a decent carry total, I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperforms these totals. Still, he needs to stay on the field to do it.

Current projections have Penny slated for around 95-100 carries for 455-470 yards and 3 touchdowns, with approximately 16-20 receptions for 130 yards and another score.

Rashaad Penny’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Penny currently has an ADP of 178.3 in half-PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, his ADP sits at 165.5. Meanwhile, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Penny has a 147.52 ADP.

Should you draft Rashaad Penny in 2021 for fantasy?

Later in drafts, you are shooting for upside and a path to touches. Suppose that player has shown flashes in the past — even better. Furthermore, if you’re looking for a sleeper RB who could surprise people out of seemingly nowhere, Penny could do it. 

In his rookie year, he ran for 108 yards on 12 carries against the Rams. In 2019, Penny had touchdown runs of 58 and 37 yards. Sure, it’s not a lot to go off of, but it’s a positive.

We could see the Seahawks choose to run more of a committee approach, and as I alluded to earlier, he could crush those conservative projections. It’s likely we even see Penny start a game or two, whether due to injury to Carson or for workload management.

For where Penny is going in ADP, it’s not likely you will find a player with the potential for a more favorable fantasy outlook — especially at RB. There is no risk with this pick.