Corey Davis’ fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Coming off the rare fourth-year breakout, former No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis looks to build on the momentum of last year with the New York Jets. But will this move translate into success, or is the fantasy football outlook for Davis likely to disappoint at his current ADP?

Corey Davis’ fantasy outlook for 2021

As far as top-five picks go, Davis has been one of the biggest disappointments in recent years. After being selected fifth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Davis carried high expectations. However, his career hasn’t quite lived up to the hype.

His rookie season was underwhelming, with only 375 receiving yards and a 52.3% catch rate. He saw a jump in 2018 with 112 targets and 891 receiving yards, but his catch rate was still just 58.0%. In 2019, despite playing in 15 games, Davis seemed somewhat lost. Part of it was the change at QB, and another factor was the addition of rookie A.J. Brown. Davis caught 43 of his 69 targets (62.3%) for 601 yards but only scored twice. 

In 2020, everything clicked for Davis — it was the best season of his career. With Ryan Tannehill under center and his future in mind, Davis took off. In 14 games, he hauled 65 of his 92 targets for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. If not for missing two games due to testing positive for COVID-19, Davis would have joined Brown as a 1,000-yard receiver.

Davis was the WR30 for fantasy, averaging 13.7 points per game (32nd) and 2.1 fpts/target (19th amongst WRs with a minimum of 30 targets).

With the Titans declining his fifth-year option before the season, Davis was destined for free agency and went from Music City to the Big Apple (cough New Jersey) and signed with the Jets on a lucrative three-year, $37.5 million contract.

Davis projects to be the WR1 on the Jets’ depth chart ahead of Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Keelan Cole, and rookie Elijah Moore. With that said, it’s going to be difficult for Davis to recreate his success when going from Ryan Tannehill to rookie Zach Wilson.

Fantasy projection

Deciphering a fantasy outlook for anyone on the Jets is a difficult undertaking — it is a brand new offense with a rookie head coach.

I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. The most important addition came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in a bit.

Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd). 

For as much as I love Moore, I believe Davis ends up leading the Jets in targets. Still, the week-to-week inconsistency of Wilson and scoring opportunities hamper his potential upside and fantasy outlook. That’s not a knock against Wilson, just the nature of rookie QBs unless you are named Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow. 

While early, projections have Davis for 100-105 targets, 65-70 receptions, 950 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

Corey Davis’ fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Davis is currently being selected with an ADP of 112 in half PPR formats. On Fleaflciker, that is slightly lower at 118.3 Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Davis is being selected slightly higher with an ADP of 105.95.

Should you draft Davis in 2021 for fantasy?

Well, it appears drafters on both sites agree that Davis is a low-end WR4 for 2021 — and I get it. Davis has one good season and will likely be in a worse QB situation, with a rookie head coach on a team that could struggle for scoring chances. 

I believe Davis could struggle for week-to-week consistency to be a reliable WR3, but as a WR4 that is likely to see 100 or more targets, that’s an ideal situation for Davis.  

Moore has received all the rave reviews during training camp and factors to compete with Crowder in the slot. Davis’ main competition, Mims, has been reportedly playing with the second-team offense. If things stay the way they are, we might be underselling the potential role for Davis in the perimeter passing game for the Jets.