Arch Manning was among the most hyped-up players in the 2025 college football season, even before he stepped foot on the field.
Analysts like Paul Finebaum projected him to win the Heisman Trophy, take Texas to the national championship, and get selected No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.
Manning ultimately decided to run it back for another year with Texas; however, one former NFL player believes Manning would’ve had a shot at going No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Ex-NFL Player Puts Arch Manning Ahead of Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza, who had a storybook end to his college career with the Indiana Hoosiers, was selected by the Las Vegas Raiders as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Mendoza was coming off an undefeated year with the Hoosiers, winning a Heisman Trophy and a national championship.
Despite all of Mendoza’s success, ex-NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz still believes Manning is ahead of Mendoza as a draft prospect based on his upside.
“Texas has a really good roster, and if Arch plays up to a level that I think he can get to in Year 2 as a starter, that team’s going to be playing that championship game. People don’t like to hear this. He would have been the second pick in the draft if he had come out, and maybe the first pick of the draft.
“The NFL draft is not about production in college. It’s important, obviously, but it’s about what you can be in the NFL. And Arch Manning, his size, his throwing ability, his movement pattern, all that, that is ahead of Mendoza.
“That doesn’t mean he would have been drafted No. 1 overall. I think people are not really ready for that conversation yet. He would have been one or two,” Schwartz said on the “Bears Bets” podcast.
.@geoffschwartz believes Arch Manning is a better prospect than Fernando Mendoza was 👀
“People don’t like to hear this… he would have been the 2nd pick if he had come out, or maybe the first pick in the Draft.” pic.twitter.com/xOsQqF1wme
— Bear Bets (@BearBetsPod) August 7, 2026
Manning’s 2025 season didn’t go as well as various analysts and fans would’ve hoped, as he took some time to find his rhythm.
However, the Texas star found his momentum in the final leg of the season and showed off his skills game after game.
The Longhorns quarterback ended the 2025 season with 3,163 passing yards, while scoring 26 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. His CFB QB Impact Score ranked 37th in the nation among eligible quarterbacks.
While Steve Sarkisian and his team face one of the toughest schedules in the country in 2026, many analysts believe they have the talent to win a national championship, with Manning leading the way.
