Fantasy football managers love versatile running backs, and Jaylen Warren certainly qualifies as that, but is the seventh round the right price with two tight ends left on the board who could rank among the very best at the position this season?
Skip Jaylen Warren in Round 7 In Favor of a Tight End
Warren over George Kittle and Tucker Kraft in Round 7 is a dangerous dance that I have no interest in participating in. There’s too much value sitting at tight end in this range to reach for a back playing for a below-average offense that added pieces this offseason that further muddy the waters.
The Steelers’ offensive environment is the first problem, and the numbers from 2025 reinforce what your eyes saw. Pittsburgh ranked 20th in red zone trips, 20th in red zone rush rate, and 24th in average drive distance. That’s not an offense generating enough scoring opportunities to support a workhorse investment at this price, let alone a backfield that could divide touches and a passing game with one more mouth to feed.
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Rico Dowdle’s arrival from Carolina complicates the path to volume. His skill set isn’t flashy, but he’s run for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons while averaging more than two catches per game in both of those campaigns. I don’t think he’s a true threat to steal RB1 honors from Warren to open the season, but I also have a hard time thinking he fades off into the background, thus making this a backfield I’m not all that interested in.
The sell on Warren has always been the receiving profile. He caught 61 passes in 2023 and carries an 83.9% career catch rate, a skill set lines up with what Aaron Rodgers wants at this stage of his career, as Katz asserted.
But that same argument applies to Michael Pittman, a receiver who Pittsburgh went out and traded for and then inked to a three-year extension. In a slow-moving offense that isn’t going to pile up the points, distribution of responsibilities is the worst possible scenario in our world, and that is how this Steelers unit projects to me
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As we near the start of the season, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in expected points this season according to future spreads, and that’s a difficult environment to return value from a backfield that could turn into a committee before the season is over.
I’m lukewarm at best on Warren, and if you’re telling me that I can get a TE with home run hitting abilities instead, then I’m never going to click Pittsburgh’s RB.
Why Kittle and Kraft Are the Better Round 7 Swing
Take the tight end with real top-three upside instead. It sounds simple, but it’s not being reflected in drafts, presumably because of injuries that may or may not impact parts of September.
Kittle’s resume speaks for itself, and even if the early-season production lags, his potential to finish as a top-five performer at the position when it matters most isn’t in question.
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Both Kittle and Kraft are coming off serious injuries, and that risk is real. I’m not denying that, but the reward justifies it. Kittle’s efficiency should be assumed until proven otherwise, and Kraft coming off PUP ahead of August leaves a real path to a peak Kittle-calibre season at a discounted rate.
In terms of mean outcomes, I have no issue with Warren landing in this range or even ranking ahead of these tight ends. But the ceiling gap is what decides this in my eyes. What Kittle or Kraft can do for a roster if either hits their best-case outcome dwarfs what a best-case season from Warren provides, partly because of the position they play and partly because I truly do believe that both have close to elite potential. Round 7 is where managers should be hunting for that kind of separation, not settling for a committee back in a bottom-quartile offense.
I’ll swing from my heels in Round 7 and try to hit a home run, understanding that I trust myself enough in the back half of the draft to insulate this decision and protect against the downside.
