The honeymoon period for Lane Kiffin in Baton Rouge is about to come to an end as the focus slowly shifts to the Tigers’ starting schedule. After LSU spent the offseason reshaping the roster with a reported $60 million splash, the 2026 schedule looming over Death Valley is being described as a gauntlet unlike any other.
Josh Pate Warns Lane Kiffin About LSU’s 2026 Schedule
College football analyst Josh Pate recently issued a stark warning to Kiffin and the Tigers during an appearance on the “Crain & Cone” podcast. He highlighted a schedule that offers zero room for slow starts.
LSU opens the 2026 season on Sept. 5 at home against Clemson. While early projections and Vegas odds suggest LSU could be as much as a double-digit favorite, Pate warns that the narrative surrounding that game is a double-edged sword.
“It is very important only because after they play Clemson as a double-digit favorite at home, and all the narrative that goes with that, if you were to lose that one or if you win it, whatever, look at the following schedule,” Pate said.
“They’ve got two or three more loseable games in the first third of their season. Then LSU basically has like one peak early, little bit of a valley, little bit of a dip on scheduling, and then another massive peak late. And so they could be a 4-0 team, they could be a 1-3 team. The 1-3 would be an extreme outlier, but not impossible. This is not Penn State. They don’t have multiple tune-up games.”
After a physical opening month, LSU enters a midseason stretch that looks manageable on paper but serves as a trap. If Kiffin’s squad loses focus, then a November slate that includes heavyweights like Alabama, Texas, and the season-ending rivalry with Arkansas looks very daunting.
In the expanded 12-team playoff era, a 2-loss LSU team is almost a lock for a seed. But a 3-loss LSU team isn’t. So, it looks like the 2026 schedule is designed to hand out those 2 losses before the calendar even turns to October.
But Kiffin hasn’t been idle. The 2026 roster looks drastically different following the departure of Garrett Nussmeier to the NFL and the additions of Husan Longstreet and Sam Leavitt. So, LSU’s identity is shifting from a pocket-passing attack to a more dynamic, dual-threat system.
However, the biggest question mark remains a defense that struggled in 2025. LSU returns tackle Dominick McKinley and linebacker Davhon Keys, but they will rely heavily on transfers like Jordan Ross to generate a consistent pass rush.
The expectations in Baton Rouge remain pretty high, given the financial spending. PFSN’s CFB Playoff Meter has given the Tigers a 39.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
