Fernando Mendoza is the clear first overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft, but would that still be the case if the quarterback draft class were stronger?
While Arch Manning isn’t eligible for the draft until next year, ESPN’s Mike Greenberg argues that the Texas quarterback would be selected before Mendoza if they were in the same draft class.
Mike Greenberg Debates Fernando Mendoza vs. Arch Manning
Mendoza was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last season, and now he’s on pace to complete the trifecta of Heisman Award winner, National Champion, and first overall draft pick.
However, this morning on the ESPN program, “Get Up”, Greenberg makes his case that Manning would be the first overall selection. During the show, he said the following:
“I can’t prove what I’m about to say because it didn’t happen, so we’ll never know,” Greenberg said. |But, it is in my opinion, Tim, if Arch Manning were in this draft class, he would be the first pick.”
“I believe that he would go number one based on the projection, on the talent that he obviously has, and any number of other factors, including the way I think teams view the two quarterbacks who are going in this class,” Greenberg added. “It’s not meant to disrespect them… I think Arch would be the first pick in this draft.”
In PFSN’s College Football Quarterback Impact Metric, Mendoza ranked as the second-best quarterback in all of college football last season with an impact score of 93.3 and a letter grade of A. Comparatively, Manning ranked 37th with an impact score of 83.1 and a letter grade of B.
In 16 games across 2025, Mendoza completed 72% of passes for 3535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns (led college football), and only six interceptions. While also rushing for 276 yards and seven touchdowns in 90 attempts, he was additionally named an All-American and the 2025 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.
Comparatively, in 13 games during 2025, Manning completed 61.4% of passes for 3163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He was a better rusher than Mendoza, considering he ran for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns in 92 attempts.
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Manning does have a fair shot at being the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but it’s disrespectful to say that he’d be the first overall pick this year. Right now, Mendoza is better, and it’s not particularly close. Plus, it’s not like his development is done, considering he’ll be turning only 23 during the middle of the 2026 NFL season.
In PFSN’s NFL Offensive Impact Metric, the Raiders ranked as the second-worst offense (31st) with an impact score of 56.3 and a letter grade of F. When the team drafts Mendoza, he’ll have a number of weapons at his disposal, such as Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, and Tre Tucker.
