Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea led the team to an incredible 10-3 record last season, the best in program history and a No. 15 ranking in the final AP Top 25 Poll. The Commodores’ push for College Football Playoff contention was led by charismatic quarterback Diego Pavia, who transformed the program’s fortunes.
After two seasons in Nashville, Pavia departed for the NFL draft process, and Lea welcomed highly rated five-star quarterback Jared Curtis to the team ahead of a pivotal 2026 season.
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In its latest projections for 2026 win totals, BetMGM predicted that the Commodores would regress to 6.5 wins without the safety net of Pavia’s playmaking.
During Tuesday’s segment of the “Paul Finebaum Show,” On3 analyst Andy Staples addressed whether Lea’s Commodores would slip back into old habits after losing Pavia or whether they’d thrive with the untested Curtis under center.
“Vanderbilt at 6.5 says that we believe in what Clark Lea is doing,” Staples said. “We believe they’re not gonna fall off once they lose Diego Pavia. My question is, will they stay at that level, or will they drop back down to kind of a more Vanderbilt level? I picked on under on this, you can still be 6-6, which at Vandy a few years ago was a great season.
“I think it’s a great compliment to Clark Lea what they’re doing. I think that job is still very hard and I’m curious to see how good they are with what seems to be a freshman starting quarterback in Jared Curtis.”
Pavia had a sensational final season in college football, tallying 3,539 passing yards, resulting in 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, while adding 862 rushing yards and 10 scores for Vanderbilt.
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The influential quarterback finished No. 2 behind Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the Heisman Trophy voting in December and earned a PFSN’s CFB QB Impact score of 94.8.
In two seasons at the program, Pavia led the Commodores to a respectable 17-9 record, including a famous win against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Nashville in 2024 that announced Lea’s team as a serious player in the SEC and College Football Playoff picture.
Lea pulled off a stunning coup when he convinced Curtis to flip his commitment from the Georgia Bulldogs to Vandy in December. Curtis is the No. 2-ranked quarterback and No. 2 overall prospect in the class of 2026 and is widely expected to be a freshman starter in place of Pavia next season.
