Matthew Stafford’s leverage has shifted. The question now isn’t whether he’ll play somewhere else. It’s whether he’ll play at all.
Stafford’s Retirement Threat Carries Weight His Trade Leverage Never Did
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk argued this week that Stafford could command $50 million annually if he captures his first MVP award, noting the 37-year-old quarterback has an ace the Rams can’t outmaneuver: retirement.
“I wonder if this year his leverage is, ‘I’ll just retire,'” Florio told PFSN during Super Bowl media week. “And if they believe him when he says, ‘I’ll just retire,’ then maybe he gets closer to $50 million.”
The Rams called Stafford’s bluff once before. After the 2024 season, they gave him permission to shop himself via trade. He spoke with the Raiders and Giants. Las Vegas reportedly offered $45 million annually on a two-year deal. Stafford stayed put anyway, accepting a restructured contract worth $84 million over two years, averaging $42 million.
That gambit failed because both sides knew Stafford preferred Los Angeles. He wasn’t actually leaving. The Rams recognized that and held firm.
Retirement carries a different calculus entirely.
Stafford has earned over $390 million over 17 NFL seasons, making him one of the highest career earners in league history. He won a Super Bowl in 2021. He just posted the best statistical season of his career with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns, both league highs. He’s an MVP finalist alongside Drake Maye, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Christian McCaffrey. The PFWA already handed him their MVP award.
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The advanced metrics confirm what the raw numbers suggest. According to PFSN’s Quarterback Impact score, Stafford posted an 84.4 QBi in 2025, good for sixth among all quarterbacks. That’s his second-highest mark, trailing only his Super Bowl-winning 2021 campaign when he ranked second overall with an 88.3 QBi. The trajectory tells a story: after dipping to 74.7 (19th) in 2024, Stafford authored a remarkable late-career resurgence.
What’s left to prove? At 37, with a back injury that sidelined him for most of training camp, the physical toll of an 18th season becomes a legitimate factor in ways it wasn’t a year ago.
“Based on the year he had this year, if he ends up being the MVP, how is he not worth $50 million a year?” Florio said. “Look at some of the guys making $50 million a year and how they’re performing.”
He’s right. Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all make $50 million or more annually. Stafford outperformed several of them in 2025.
The Back Remains the Only Concern
Stafford’s aggravated disc kept him out from the start of training camp through mid-August. The Rams worried internally about whether it would affect his season. It didn’t.
“His arm’s going to be there into his 50s,” Florio noted. “He can keep going indefinitely.”
Sean McVay certainly hopes he does. After the NFC Championship loss to Seattle, McVay said his “fingers crossed” Stafford returns for another run.
“Man, is he still playing at an incredible level,” McVay said Monday after signing his own contract extension.
Stafford has been deliberately noncommittal about 2026. On the Let’s Go! podcast, he called the decision “physical, mental and emotional,” and said it involved his family. Translation: everything is on the table.
The Rams have limited alternatives if Stafford walks away. Last offseason, Aaron Rodgers served as their Plan B before he ended up in Pittsburgh. Jimmy Garoppolo? That’s not a championship-caliber fallback.
Stafford is currently scheduled to earn approximately $42 million in 2026 with a cap hit of $48.27 million. If he wins MVP on Feb. 5, expect that number to climb. Unlike last year, the Rams may not be able to hold the line.
The leverage has shifted. And Stafford knows it.
