The third round of the 2026 Australian Open will see seeded players face each other. One such match will feature 19th-seeded Tommy Paul, who will take on 14th-seeded Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This is a rematch from last year’s Australian Open, where the American won against the Spaniard in straight sets.
Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match Details
Date: Jan. 22, 2026
Tournament: Australian Open 2026
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Category: Grand Slam
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, RDS, Sky Sports
Paul vs Davidovich Fokina Head-to-Head
After four meetings, Paul has a 4-0 head-to-head record against Davidovich Fokina. The last time they played each other was at the Australian Open, where Paul won 6-1, 6-1, 6-1.
Paul started his season with an opening-round exit in Brisbane, losing to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. He had a nice run in Adelaide, reaching the semifinals, where he lost to Tomáš Macháč. Coming into the Australian Open, he faced off against Aleksandar Kovacevic, with the 19th seed securing a routine 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win. In the second round, he took on Thiago Agustin Tirante, winning 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 to reach the third round.
Davidovich Fokina had a similar season to Paul before the Australian Open, as the Spaniard lost his first-round match against Brandon Nakashima in Brisbane and then reached the semifinal in Adelaide, where he lost to Ugo Humbert. At the Australian Open, he started with a 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 win against Filip Misolic and then had to play a five-set thriller against Reilly Opelka in the second round, winning 6-3, 7-6 (3), 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 against the American.
Paul vs Davidovich Fokina Prediction
In his two matches in Melbourne so far, Paul has an 85 percent win rate behind his first serve, with the American player yet to be broken. He has converted 50 percent of the break point opportunities, which has helped him take control of his matches. His serving has been great, as he has hit 24 aces in two matches and made only one double fault.
On the other hand, Davidovich Fokina won 76 percent of the first serve points in his two matches, but the Spaniard needs to be sharper on break point opportunities, as he has converted only 32 percent of the break points. Against Opelka, the Spaniard could only break serve twice.
Davidovich Fokina needs to find a way to break Paul’s serve, as the American is a better returner than Opelka, and it will be tough to hold serve against him. Paul needs to step inside the court, especially during second-serve situations in return games. The PFSN Simulator has assigned a heavy 61 percent win probability for the Spaniard.
However, this is the third time these two players have competed against each other at the Australian Open. Last year’s match in Melbourne was a bit of a dud, as Davidovich Fokina was not at his physical best. However, back in their match at the 2023 Australian Open, these two players had a marathon five-setter, which Paul won.
If both players are fit, then the upcoming match has a prospect of being a five-set battle as well, with Paul having the edge as he is a better returner and has an undefeated record against his opponent.
Pick– Paul to win in five sets.
