The Houston Texans appeared dead in the water early in the season, opening the year 0–3 with C.J. Stroud and company struggling to find their footing. Since then, Houston has surged, going 12–2 over its final 14 games and entering the postseason as the top-seeded Wild Card team.
Who Is the Texans Potential AFC Championship Opponent?
After shutting down Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the opening round, the Texans now turn their attention to a New England Patriots team led by MVP candidate Drake Maye in the Divisional Round. Houston will once again lean on its defense, and if it can contain Maye, here’s a look at who the Texans would face in the AFC Championship Game.
According to PFSN’s Defense Impact Metric, Houston has the second-best defense in the league. That unit proved its dominance in the Wild Card round, where the Steelers struggled mightily and managed just six points in an early playoff exit.
However, no team has held the Patriots to single-digit scoring this season, as New England boasts the league’s second-ranked offense per PFSN’s Offense Impact Metric. While Houston’s defense presents a formidable challenge, the Patriots’ vulnerabilities on the opposite side of the ball could make this a tightly contested matchup.
The Patriots’ run defense has regressed as the season has progressed, and while Houston is not traditionally a run-heavy team, the Texans showed encouraging balance last week, with Woody Marks carrying the ball 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown, and Nick Chubb adding 10 carries for 48 yards.
Even so, PFSN’s Playoff Predictor lists the Texans as slight underdogs, giving them a 48.5% chance of upsetting New England. If Houston pulls off the win, it will travel to Denver to face the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on January 25.
A potential Texans–Broncos matchup would project as a defensive slugfest. Despite Denver boasting the league’s top-ranked defense, Houston would likely enter as the favorite following the Broncos’ loss of quarterback Bo Nix, who is out for the season with an ankle injury.
Denver narrowly escaped the Divisional Round with a win over the Buffalo Bills, but their Super Bowl hopes now rest with Jarrett Stidham under center. With either Houston or New England awaiting in the AFC Championship, the Broncos face an uphill battle, though their defense remains capable of keeping them competitive.
The Texans and Broncos met once during the regular season in a tightly contested defensive battle, with Denver escaping with an 18–15 victory. Without Nix, however, a similar outcome may be difficult to replicate.
Before Nix’s injury, PFSN analytics gave Denver the highest probability in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl at 30.3%, while Houston ranked third at 23.2%.
