The Carolina Panthers (8-9) have finally earned entry back into the NFL Playoffs, the most coveted club in the league — the NFL Playoffs. Having been bounced out of the entry line well before the establishment even opened doors the past handful of seasons, Carolina now hosts an NFC Wild Card game against the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) on Saturday evening.
This is the franchise’s first home playoff game since the 2015 season and its first trip back to the postseason since 2017. By the way, the game is a rematch of a Week 13 home victory by the Panthers. Will lightning strike twice in Carolina this weekend?
Throw the Records Out or Not, the Panthers Deserve to Be Here
First off, let’s hope lightning doesn’t actually strike at all in Charlotte, NC, on Saturday. The weather forecast calls for rain, high wind gusts, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. That won’t deter the Panthers from their focus, especially since they faced the Rams in wet conditions during Week 13 as well.
Carolina’s losing regular-season record has been a hot topic for media pundits this week. The problem with saying the Panthers don’t “belong” is simple. They did more than every other team in the NFC South. That means they won the division on merit and, say it with me, earned their playoff spot.
Rico Dowdle led the Panthers’ rushing with 1,076 yards and 6 touchdowns. He ranked No. 13 among all NFL running backs using PFSN’s NFL RB Impact Metric, which measures a combination of usage, efficiency, and scoring. Chuba Hubbard had his best game in Week 13 against the Rams. In that game, he rushed 17 times for 83 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and caught 2 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was Bryce Young’s favorite — and most productive — target all year. Next Gen Stats say McMillan (44.5%) had the second-highest team air yards share among all receivers in the NFL this season, behind just Seattle’s Pro Bowl WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (48.6%). Second-year wideout Jalen Coker emerged late in the season, creating a formidable threat for Young and Panthers’ head coach (and play-caller) Dave Canales.
Young has experienced bouts of inconsistency, and his production fell short of preseason hopes for a former No. 1 overall pick. In 12 of Young’s 16 starts, he threw for less than 200 yards. His 188.2 passing yards per game are the fourth-lowest among the 26 quarterbacks who started at least ten games this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
You won’t hear this from heavily spray-tanned “analysts” on major networks: Young showed obvious development this year. For example, on extended dropbacks in 2025 (plays made 4+ seconds after the snap), he produced 306 yards and 5 touchdowns and raised his completion rate to 47.2% from 27.6% over his first two seasons. The focus on quick passes, plus Young’s comfort in the offense, helped lower his pressure-to-sack rate from 22.5% (2023–2024) to 13.4% this season — seventh-lowest in the NFL.
One last note for the Panthers’ offense: The offensive line, in theory, gets a significant boost with Robert Hunt’s return from injured reserve. Hunt hasn’t played since Week 2, when he tore his left bicep. The offensive line has started eleven different combinations this season. When Hunt takes the field on Saturday, it will be the twelfth.
The Panthers’ defense has made notable improvements in key areas. The rushing defense has gone from worst (literally, historically poor in 2024) to, if not first, then at least the middle of the pack. They are currently the No. 20 unit, allowing 123.3 yards per game. The return of Derrick Brown has proven salubrious to that effort.
Jaycee Horn is a Pro Bowl cornerback for the second consecutive year. He will get his first shot at the Rams since he missed the first meeting after a concussion. Mike Jackson has played the best football of his career, lining up opposite Horn. Jackson (83.6 score) is rated No. 18 among cornerbacks in PFSN’s NFL CB Impact Metric.
Another Panthers defender who missed the first matchup against Los Angeles was Tre’von Moehrig, who has become a key player for defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. This season, he’s one of only eleven league defenders to log at least 50 snaps at four positions: 73 on the line of scrimmage, 275 as off-ball linebacker, 242 in the slot/nickel, and 344 as safety.
Unfortunately for Carolina, Moehrig was also one of the defense’s most efficient pass rushers. Rookie Nic Scourton tied Derrick Brown for the team high in sacks (five). Still, the pressure rate was a league-low 26.2%.
Los Angeles Brings Super Bowl Aspirations and Expectations
For much of the regular season, the Los Angeles Rams were considered one of the league’s most complete teams. Matthew Stafford has led NFL MVP talks since the opener. Stafford leads the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns — twelve more touchdowns than any other quarterback this season.
He has two top playmakers: Puka Nacua (1,715 receiving yards, the second-highest total in the NFL) and Davante Adams (14 touchdown receptions, most among all receivers).
Believe it or not, the Rams’ offense runs through their rushing attack. That may seem odd given their impressive passing stats. Kyren Williams ran for 1,252 yards, the sixth-most in the NFL. Blake Corum gained 746 yards at 5.1 yards per carry, fifth among qualified runners. Head coach Sean McVay calls play-action passes at the league’s highest rate (35.3%).
Los Angeles must again compensate for starting right guard Kevin Dotson’s (ankle) absence. Dotson is ranked 36th in PFSN’s NFL Player OL Impact Metric.
Chris Shula is the defensive coordinator. His defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed per game (20.4), touchdowns allowed (34), and EPA per play (-0.11). The Rams blitz at the fourth-lowest rate, sending extra defenders on just 20.7% of dropbacks. This is thanks in part to pressure from the defensive front. Byron Young (12), Jared Verse (7.5), and Kobie Turner (7) lead the team in sacks.
Safety Quentin Lake will be active Saturday for LA. The versatile box safety was on injured reserve back in Week 13. Lake moves around Shula’s defense as usual, creating matchup issues in coverage and adding run support.
How the Panthers Can Win Their NFC Wild Card Game on Saturday
A key advantage for Carolina is their Week 13 win against the Rams. While some call that win “flukey,” the Rams nearly hit, or exceeded, their offensive season averages: 28 points (30.5 avg.), 379 total yards (394.6 avg.), 4-of-6 red zone (63.2%), and one penalty (fewest in NFL).
Turnovers made the biggest difference in that ball game. The Panthers’ defense forced three big ones. Nick Scott intercepted a Matthew Stafford pass in the end zone, directly taking points off the board. Mike Jackson picked Stafford off and ran it back 48 yards for a touchdown. Near the end, Derrick Brown forced a fumble on a sack to ice the game.
Three takeaways might be too much to expect again. The Panthers had 21 for the season, ranking 21st among all defenses. The players active for Saturday — Horn and Moehrig — were missing the first time. In theory, they should help against the run (the Rams had 152 rushing yards in Week 13).
In particular, Moehrig will likely see most of his snaps in the box, mugging the line and blitzing off the edge or up the middle. Derrick Brown is a mismatch for the Rams’ backup right guard, and really for most linemen. The defensive front must use its size advantage in the trenches. Stopping the run will let Evero be more aggressive with pressure calls.
For Carolina’s offense, Bryce Young must play another clean game. He doesn’t have to be perfect, but he can’t make crucial mistakes at critical times. The Panthers’ margin for error is still slimmer than the Rams’. Dave Canales should lean on the run game — as in Week 13, running 61.3% of plays (a season high), per Next Gen Stats. The Panthers were most effective on inside runs (4.2 yards per carry, versus 3.8 on outside runs), which works with Robert Hunt’s return.
How the Carolina Panthers Can Lose Their Wild Card Game on Saturday
The Panthers would simply need to do the opposite of the above to lose.
No, in all seriousness, this Rams team is a talented, tough opponent. They still remember the loss from earlier in the season. Los Angeles has the edge at offensive play-caller between McVay and Canales. Both execute related concepts and run zone calls more than gap, but McVay has an innate feel for kill shots and working back to looks with variables to catch the defense off guard.
If the Rams can hit on a handful of explosive plays in the pass game, and they’re able to get the run game flowing like the last time these teams met, it could be a long day for the Panthers’ defense. Rams’ rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson (hamstring) is questionable for the game, but if he’s able to give it a go — the tight end position has given Carolina troubles. Ferguson and Parkinson are big, athletic pass catchers who can get behind the likes of Christian Rozeboom and Claudin Cherelus.
Ball protection and time of possession are key components of the Panthers’ offensive recipe for success. Los Angeles ranks fifth in the NFL with 26 takeaways in 2025. They’re the No. 12 team in terms of time of possession (30:22). Should the Rams find more comfort on Saturday and get into their typical rhythm, the pressure will be on Young to make special plays at a much higher clip.
Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams Wild Card Game Prediction
Franchise legend Cam Newton will be back at Bank of America to bang the “Keep Pounding” drum before the game gets kicked off.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Canales highlighted the impact that could have, saying, “He’s the biggest big person. It’s not just by his height and size but also just the personality. If that happens, I think it’s amazing, and we can use any type of energy and that enthusiasm, and I know our fans in Bank of America Stadium will be fired up if that does happen.”
A fired-up home crowd is a weapon. I trust that this Carolina team will use it to their advantage. But the game is played between the lines on the field. The Panthers are not widely expected to win this playoff showdown. I wouldn’t say this team is overly motivated by external noise, but they most definitely don’t tune it out either.
I like Carolina to keep this game close, even if it gets murky at times. The Panthers have had ten of the seventeen games this season end within one score of their opponents. In those ten games, the team has a 7-3 record. Bryce Young has had twelve fourth-quarter comeback or game-winning drives since being drafted into the league in 2023.
I think the defense will do enough against the high-octane Rams offense to get the ball back to Young for a shot at the thirteenth notch on his belt.
Panthers 25, Rams 24.
