The NFL is a results-oriented business, and that is why we have immediate firings every season after Week 18 wraps up. Each franchise wants to move toward the playoffs, and they are never more aware of their flaws than while the wounds are still fresh.
Here’s a look at some of the activity in the coaching landscape through the lens of what teams, units, and franchises gained or lost from the change at the top.
Atlanta Falcons Fire Raheem Morris
Technically, this team was in a three-way tie atop the NFC South, but that sounds better than it is. This team was 4-9 through 13 games before rattling off four straight wins to close despite never having a chance to win the tiebreakers.
This is an interesting firing as Raheem Morris’ replacement will not have access to a first-round pick in April barring a trade (they included it in the deal with the Rams last year to move up to draft James Pearce Jr. at No. 26 overall), but the move makes sense in terms of the on-field product.
- Winners: Falcons, especially the secondary offensive pieces
- Losers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and Carolina Panthers
In his playing days, Morris was a safety and he largely cut his teeth in the coaching ranks on that side of the ball before Atlanta hired their former interim head coach to take over the role in a full-time capacity ahead of the 2024 season.
The thought process was there. Bring in a defensive-minded coach, get him his QB (Michael Penix Jr. was their first pick in the Morris era) to feed the recent first-round picks (Kyle Pitts Sr., Drake London, and Bijan Robinson were top-eight selections in three straight years for this franchise) and watch the wins pile up.
It didn’t happen.
It didn’t happen in large part because the defense under Morris’ watch was… well, offensive. We still aren’t sure if Penix is a real player at this level or not, and a past-his-prime Kirk Cousins was never going to be much better than a .500 QB in his stead. But through the past two years, stopping the opposition — the one thing that Atlanta expected to be a given after committing to Morris — was a consistent issue. The Falcons ranked:
- 16th in yards allowed per play
- 21st in red zone defense
- Average ranking of 22nd in DEFi
- 25th against third downs
- 25th in pressure rate (30th when not blitzing)
The division is as winnable as any in the league, and this is a talented roster. The NFC South has one double-digit win season over the past four years (2024 Bucs) and only has three instances over that stretch of a team finishing with a positive point differential.
The Falcons aren’t far away from hosting a playoff game, and they know their time to strike is now: firing Morris was a quick admission to a mistake and allows this team to rethink what voice they want directing a collection of players that is far better than what their recent results would indicate. The defense can only get better, and while the offensive stars produced, those who require more creativity largely struggled with Morris in control.
Cleveland Browns Fire Kevin Stefanski
Kevin Stefanski had the two spike seasons during his five years in Cleveland (2020 and 2023, both of which earned him Coach of the Year honors for improving their win total by four-plus games). But for an offensive-minded coach, the results in a perceived area of strength, much like Morris, were underwhelming at a high level.
- 2020: 8th in OFFi and 5.8 yards per play
- 2021: 19th in OFFi and 5.5 yards per play
- 2022: 18th in OFFi and 5.3 yards per play
- 2023: 27th in OFFi and 4.8 yards per play
- 2024: 32nd in OFFi and 4.6 yards per play
- 2025: 32nd in OFFi and 4.3yards per play
He simply hasn’t been able to get the quarterback position right sans Baker Mayfield and that is ultimately what ended his tenure. We often use third-down conversion rate as a simple way to judge the coach/QB in a given spot, and the decline in that regard (2020-23: 38% on third downs, 2024-25: 31.6%, the only team below 34%) makes this change an expected one.
- Winners: Sheduer Sanders, Stefanski, Browns, NFL teams with openings
I think this is a net win for all involved. The NFL as a whole wasn’t sold on Sanders and told us as much at the draft. What Sanders did in his seven starts this season (seven touchdowns against nine interceptions) wasn’t very good at all, but now we at least have data points.
At the draft, we were all flying blind. Now, the incoming coach will have some film to work with and has, presumably, sold himself on the ability to make the most of this situation.
Stefanski and the NFL coaching landscape also wins: he’s entering his age-44 season with a pair of COY trophies and a rebuild pedigree. Is he more of a coordinator? Maybe. Could he land in a spot where his strengths are magnified by way of roster support that never really happened in Cleveland after Mayfield departed? It’s possible.
Even in a year where things went sideways, the Browns had a pair of wins over playoff teams and made the Bills sweat in Buffalo. Stefanski is plenty capable of contributing in a meaningful way to a winner as soon as 2026, and let’s not act like Cleveland (three straight top-seven DEFi under Jim Schwartz) is doomed for years to come; they own Jacksonville’s first-round pick this April courtesy of the Travis Hunter trade and also have two extra fifth-round selections.
Las Vegas Raiders Fire Pete Carroll
The Raiders’ hire of Pete Carroll made sense for 18 minutes.
During an 18-minute stretch of game time in Week 1, Las Vegas outscored New England 13-0 with Ashton Jeanty scoring the touchdown. We entered the season thinking they could be a little frisky, and this was proof positive.
They lost their next four games by a combined 126-63 score and the two QBs they beat after that Week 1 surprise were within the first six starts of their career (Cam Ward and Chris Oladokun). At best, Carroll is a talent sustainer (at absolute best) on a roster that was torn down to the studs and needed a talent elevator.
- Winners: Everyone attached to the Raiders organization
- Losers: Older head coaches
Carroll took over a four-win team (-125 point differential) and turned them into a three-win squad (-191 point differential). He leaves behind three blue-chip talents (Maxx Crosby, Brock Bowers, and Jeanty) and not much else. This is a clunky build that isn’t set to be competitive while they can afford to have all three of those players in town, and that makes this a tough spot for any incoming coach.
That said, the Raiders win because they are now open to taking the long approach, something that was never going to be the case with an old head coach… and that brings me to the loser category.
Say what you will about specific analytics, but the game as a whole is smarter than it’s ever been and that environment naturally favors those who have been raised in the information era. I expect this Carroll disaster to be a cautionary tale moving forward, with organizations preferring to be a year or two early on a head coach than risk catching one who is in freefall.
The Raiders don’t have a playoff win since the 2002 team lost in the Super Bowl, and I don’t think that streak is in jeopardy of ending any time soon regardless of who they hire. That said, just because something is obvious doesn’t make it wrong, and Las Vegas took the first step in the rebuild process with this move.
Arizona Cardinals Fire Jonathan Gannon
In three seasons at the controls, Jonathan Gannon had nothing but losing seasons with a pair of last-place finishes within the division. It was nice of the franchise to wait until the day after his 43rd birthday to officially can him, but a 3-14 season after a 2-0 start comes with consequences.
- Winners: Cardinals, head-coach needy teams
- Losers: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray was in the league for four seasons prior to Gannon coming to town and tying his future to him (Murray signed a five-year extension in 2022 and Gannon came to town in 2023).
The up-and-down QB had a supporter in a position of power, and that resulted in an extended leash. He’s been a two-to-one TD/INT player for all of his career and that’s just not good enough in 2025. The Cards have arguably the best tight end in the game and gave Murray a high-pedigree receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr.: Murray averaged 6.0 yards per pass this season (39th of the 45 QBs who threw 100+ passes in 2025, ranking just behind Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Browning).
Has anything he put on tape recently inspired confidence?
Arizona owns the No. 3 overall pick this April, and that gives the new head coach liberty to choose his own adventure at the most important position in the sport; maybe Murray has some supporters left out there, but the odds are good that his time in Arizona (a good spot when you look at the surrounding talent) is over.
Gannon is a young, defensive-minded coach with big game experience (he helped the Eagles to Super Bowl LVII as their defensive coordinator), a resume that will help a team with a more concrete roster structure. The Cards were top-12 in third-down conversion rate and red-zone offense during Gannon’s stay, signs that point to his ability to build a staff that works around his strengths.
Getting rid of a good coach isn’t ideal, but if Gannon was tied to Murray, this is likely to be viewed as a net positive for Arizona when looking back on this decision in a decade. If this move wasn’t made, the odds of them sticking with Murray are likely higher, and what good does that do in a division that is loaded with win-now teams?
They may be picking third in a two-QB draft and that’s not the perfect place to sit, but a team with some talent and strong draft capital is an appealing landing spot.
