After a big Week 16 win against the Baltimore Ravens, the Patriots dominated the New York Jets on the road, moving to 13-3 and nearing an unexpected AFC East title. New England is aiming for its first division title since 2019.
Drake Maye, now a two-time Pro Bowler, threw five touchdowns and continues his strong season, ranking third in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi). Maye is making a strong case to be the NFL MVP in his second year. His play has been an enormous reason the Patriots are back in the playoffs and are Super Bowl contenders.
What Are the New England Patriots’ Chances of Winning the AFC East and Being the No. 1 Seed?
New England will return to the postseason for the first time since 2021 and controls its path to the AFC East title. According to the PFSN Playoff Predictor, the Patriots had a 72.2% chance to win the division entering the week.
The Patriots must win in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins, or have the Buffalo Bills lose one of their final two games. New England defeated Miami 33-27 in Week 2 behind two passing and one rushing touchdown from Maye.
The Bills, winners of their last four games and five straight AFC East titles, require one fewer loss than the Patriots due to the conference record tiebreaker.
The Patriots can win the division on Sunday if the Bills lose to the Philadelphia Eagles. PFSN Analytics gives the Bills a slight edge, with a 50.5% chance to win.
If both teams finish with the same record, they would tie on the first three tiebreakers: head-to-head, division record, and common games.
​In Week 18, the Patriots have a 66.0% chance to beat the Dolphins at home, while the Bills have a 75.6% chance to beat the Jets in Buffalo.
The Patriots have a 25.4% chance, according to the PFSN Playoff Predictor, to be the top seed in the AFC. The Denver Broncos have a 62.4% chance of claiming the top spot in the AFC.
The Broncos face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. Denver would win the tiebreaker by having a higher win percentage in common games, since New England lost to the Raiders.
The Patriots must win their final game and have the Broncos lose or tie the Chargers to secure the top AFC seed and home-field advantage. New England is most likely to be the second seed, according to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter.
New England’s 13 wins are its most since 2017, when it finished 13-3 and lost to the Eagles in the Super Bowl. That year was also the last time the team secured the one seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
