The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 17, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Christmas Day’s Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 17 performance.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott, QB
This season obviously hasn’t gone to script for the Cowboys, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Dak Prescott manager who isn’t happy with the return on their investment.
He completed six of seven passes on the first drive with a touchdown strike to Ryan Flournoy, fueling his fifth time in six games with over 18 fantasy points.
The rushing is to be viewed as a bonus at this point in the career of the 32-year-old, but the arm is just fine, something he showcased on the absolute dime that he laid on George Pickens from 38 yards out last weekend against the Chargers.
He’s looking to become the first Cowboy ever to lead the NFL in passing yards, and I expect him to take a nice step in that direction against a Commanders defense that he lit up back in October (264 yards and three scores on his 30 pass attempts).
Among the QBs with nothing to play for in terms of the standings, Prescott is as good as it gets with your Super Bowl on the line. Hopefully, you have him stacked, something that I’ll prioritize in 2026 if/when I draft a QB who doesn’t rely on his legs.
Javonte Williams, RB
The game script did Javonte Williams no favors last week. The Cowboys weren’t too competitive with the Chargers, and that resulted in a season-low nine carries for their lead back.
The fact that he has caught multiple passes in four of his past five games is a nice boost, but I wouldn’t worry about the score being an issue in this game when it comes to Williams’ usage.
He is battling a bit of a neck situation, and this offensive line isn’t at full strength, but Williams did gash these Commanders for 116 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries two months ago.
At the very least, I expect plenty of usage in this game, and with him averaging 0.86 points per touch (55 red zone touches is certainly helpful), that gives him a strong RB2 profile to cap a season where you’ve profited in a significant way from taking a chance on him.
CeeDee Lamb, WR
Last week against the Chargers was more of a Pickens than a CeeDee Lamb game, but six catches on seven targets for 51 yards with a pair of red zone touches isn’t a bad floor outcome.
He’s managed at least six grabs in four straight, and his season-low average depth of target (6.7 yards) has me thinking that the efficiency sticks in this plus spot.
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Lamb has scored over 16 PPR points in six straight against the Commanders, and over that stretch, he’s scored six times, cleared 95 yards three times, and had a pair of double-digit catch efforts (both in 2024). I didn’t think the pregame illness slowed him last week, and as long as that continues to be the case, I’d expect Dallas’s WR1 to end the season strong.
George Pickens, WR
Isn’t it crazy how things can shift in a week?
This time last week, there were questions about whether Pickens would be the next receiver to leave Pittsburgh and become a problem. There were efforts and attitude concerts following back-to-back duds.
Fast forward and Pickens is fresh off of his fifth game with at least 130 receiving yards and a touchdown (the only player in the 2000’s with more such games in a single season was Tyreek Hill in 2023) while a current Steeler receiver is being suspended with his team chasing a division title for getting into it with a blue haired fan during the game.
Life comes at you fast.
Getting Pickens on track was clearly a marching order entering last week, as he had an early 14-yard grab on the first drive and a 28-yarder that would extend that possession on fourth down.
This feels just like peak Bengals to me with Pickens serving as Tee Higgins. There were moments in Cincinnati where the question was asked who the top receiver was, and while I think the answer is reasonably clear in both situations, there is no denying the value of WR2.
Pickens is right on the fringe of WR1 status in the fantasy world this week (he turned six targets into 82 yards in the first meeting with Washington).
Jake Ferguson, TE
There’s an argument to be made for selling high on any tight end spike that comes from a player not in the top tier at the position (for me, that’s Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle, but you could lump a few more names up there), and Jake Ferguson is the latest example of why.
Usage Decline
- Weeks 1-7: 22.4% target share, 1.59 yards per route
- Weeks 8-16: 13.8% target share, 0.98 yards per route
He’s been held under five PPR points in three straight and hasn’t reached 12 points in a game since Week 7. If we accept that the position is all over the place and generally flares after the actual difference makers, why wouldn’t we try to extract value when the stock is at its peak?
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Of course, you’ll never know precisely when that is, but I’d rather have sold Ferguson a week or two earlier than go home early because I held on for far too long.
This is a plus matchup, and that’s why I have him hovering around TE1 status, not because of anything he has shown us over the past two months.
Washington Commanders
Marcus Mariota, QB
Marcus Mariota was tested for a concussion after being slung to the ground and having his hand stepped on in the third quarter of the loss to the Eagles on Saturday.
Not an ideal run out.
He passed through the concussion protocol but remained on the sidelines for the rest of the game in favor of Josh Johnson.
If the Commanders had something to play for, I’d be interested in this matchup with access to a strong WR1 behind a defense that struggles to stop anyone. But that’s not the case, and with health hurdles now a part of the picture, I think it’s Terry McLaurin or bust when looking at this offense in Week 17.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
Numbers never lie.
That’s my team name in a few spots, and I pretty much live life by that standard. They can say anything you want them to, so any “lie” that you believe them to be telling, I’ll happily spin in a different direction to make them tell my truth.
You: “16 touches for 69 yards and a touchdown. Sign me up for more of that!”
Me: “69.1% of his points came in the final 3.5 minutes of a game that was decided.”
C-Rod was viable on Saturday, but I don’t think it was in a very sustainable way. Those garbage-time numbers could have gone anywhere, and if not for Mariota’s injury, those are probably pass plays that would have had Jeremy McNichols on the field.
He was featured early; I won’t fight you on that. Washington ran the ball on four of their first five plays last week, and they all went to Rodriguez (gains of, in order, three, five, six, and three yards). I don’t think there’s a question as to which Commanders running back is most valuable.
But I don’t think it matters.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Jacory Corskey-Merritt ran for 96 yards and a touchdown in New York against the Giants in Week 15, but with Chris Rodriguez back from the hamstring injury, the rookie was more of an afterthought.
He wasn’t on the field for either of Washington’s first two drives, and while he got the short touchdown run, it’s worth noting that Rodriguez got the first crack at it.
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In the loss to Philly, JCM ranked third in this backfield in snap share (21.6%). His five red zone touches were nice to see and give you a path to getting a cheap TD (like last week) if you’re in a tough spot, but that’s all Croskey-Merritt is at this point.
If the Commanders were interested in extending the rookie in a meaningful way, we would have seen it last week when they tried to prevent the Eagles from celebrating an NFC East title. I think you’re lucky if you get 10 touches, and without a versatile skill set, you’re chasing a TD in an offense that I have little faith in.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
If we were in Week 4, I might try to sell you on the idea of stashing McNichols, but we aren’t, so I won’t.
It was interesting to see him on the field for a red zone play on Washington’s first red zone drive of last week. Yes, it was on third down, and that’s more his role than anything, but in a backfield without a proven threat and no versatility among those competing with him for touches, there would be growth potential if this role were presented in September.
But we are in December now, and McNichols has just 63 touches this season, with his only score coming back in Week 3. There’s no need to roster a player like this at this point.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Josh Johnson’s first completion went to Deeb Samuel for 20 yards, the veteran’s longest catch in December, but it ended up being the eighth time in nine games in which he was held under 45 yards.
There’s not enough meat on this bone.
With Zach Ertz (ACL) out, there’s no real competition for looks behind McLaurin that I fear. However, what motivation does this team have to feature a pending UFA who is unlikely to be part of the future that revolves around a QB who is not currently playing?
You can do better on your wire. The floor isn’t high enough to make him much more valuable than the dozen or so all-or-nothing options that you’ve looked past in free agency for a month now.
Terry McLaurin, WR
The Commanders’ offense isn’t explosive with Jayden Daniels out, so posting a time of possession number under 26 minutes puts everybody involved at risk.
Add in a Mariota injury mid-game, and I think you have to feel good about the 8.3 PPR points that you got from McLaurin.
He saw the first target of the game and was on the right side of a 40-yard pass to set up Washington’s first touchdown of Saturday afternoon, the second straight week he’s used a splash play to save the day.
That may not be a sustainable way to live, but if you’re looking ahead to 2026, it’s good to see those plays work into his catch diet more.
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McLaurin: He’s scored in consecutive games against the Cowboys and has earned at least a 25% target share in four of his last five meetings with the divisional rival. Zach Ertz (torn ACL) has scored in his previous three games against Dallas, a role that is now obviously up for the taking.
I’m not thrilled about betting on Washington’s offense in any capacity this week, but if I’m going to pull the trigger, it’s on McLaurin.
