The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the New York Giants to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
It’s hard to know what to make of J.J. McCarthy right now, as a fantasy asset or a real-life franchise centerpiece.
He carries himself the right way and has shown flashes, but his struggles to get Justin Jefferson are among the most confusing trends going on in the NFL right now.
On Sunday night in Dallas, he was two-of-eight when throwing to his WR1 and 13-of-16 when targeting anyone else wearing purple.
It’s annoying and enough of a concern to completely have him off of my radar for this week in redraft, but I think I’m encouraged long term.
That sounds counterintuitive, but would you rather a young QB develop a connection with one of the best receivers in the game or work on honing his game to a point where average NFL talent can succeed?
His getting on the same page with Jefferson seems to be the only thing standing in his way of being a top-15 play next season. McCarthy has up to three rushing touchdowns in eight starts this season and has a 10+ yard rush in five of those contests. The mobility is good enough, and there are enough breadcrumbs to give me hope.
Against the Cowboys, he was eight-of-12 with two scores when running play-action, and over the past two weeks, he’s eight-of-13 with two touchdowns and no interceptions when throwing deep downfield.
This is a talented team with a high-end playcaller and a minimum of nine indoor games per season. I’m not playing him in Week 16, but for 2026, why can’t he be on the low-end QB1 radar?
Right now, just over two fantasy PPG separate QB9-18.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
Aaron Jones has one year left on his deal, and it’s becoming evident that Kevin O’Connell believes he adds enough stability to this backfield to give J.J. McCarthy a chance at developing.
Jones has 29 touches over the past two weeks and is running roughly four routes for every one from Jordan Mason. My expectations are low for this offense, but if you’re reading into them scoring 65 points over the past two weeks with McCarthy playing better, then Jones deserves a top-15 ranking against the worst run defense in the NFL by EPA.
I’ve got him ranked well ahead of Mason, more in the low-end RB2, high-end flex tier due to my concerns about his scoring equity (two TDs on 116 touches this season).
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Jordan Mason, RB
It would appear that the Vikings want the veteran presence of Aaron Jones on the field to help facilitate the development of JJ McCarthy, and that’s coming at the cost of Jordan Mason.
Against the Cowboys on Sunday night, Mason was on the field for just 34.6% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps, and the opening script was even more concerning (one of nine snaps in the first quarter).
The fade here isn’t complicated. Mason hasn’t had multiple turrets in a game since Week 5 and is averaging just 5.3 PPR PPG this season in games in which he doesn’t score.
I’m not saying you have to feel good about Jones in this offense, but I am saying that it doesn’t make sense to hold onto Mason with him sitting outside of my top 40 at the position.
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison got behind the defense on Sunday night for a 58-yard reception.
I’m not minimizing that, Justin Jefferson managers might sacrifice a finger for such a play, but that look accounted for half of Addison’s targets in the win (fifth on the team in targets).
I don’t think J.J. McCarthy is going to continue to struggle to get on the same page as one of the three best receivers on the planet for much longer, so the fact that Addison has been able to step up during those struggles is a real concern.
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We knew entering this season that regression was coming for the former Trojan, whose touchdown-to-target rate was simply too good to be true through two seasons. The TD variance I was prepared for, but he remains inconsistent in terms of winning targets, and that’s where I draw the line.
Some weeks look better than others (10 targets against the Seahawks less than a month ago), but playing him means you need to hit a parlay: a high effort game from him AND an accurate spot from McCarthy.
Is that the bet you want to have to cash to advance through this week?
Justin Jefferson, WR
Pain.
There was a TD wiped off the board last week, another one mishandled, and before you know it, I’m spiraling down a research rabbit hole to try to quantify just what we are seeing.
Three receivers this season have had three straight games where they caught multiple passes while running 20+ routes in a game, where they finished with fewer than 25 receiving yards.
- Justin Jefferson
- Cooper Kupp
- Xavier Hutchinson
No big deal. That’s a third-year receiver that saw not one, but two replacements drafted for him in April, a 32-year-old who was released this summer, and his current employer traded for a WR2 at the deadline, and maybe the best receiver of a generation.
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I don’t get it, and I fail to believe it.
He owns a 30.2% target share from J.J. McCarthy, so it’s not a volume thing. He hasn’t popped up on the injury report, so it’s not a health thing. I wish I could explain it. From a spreadsheet perspective, it just looks like a crazy swing in variance at the worst possible time.
Percentage Of Expected Points Achieved, JJ McCarty Passes
- Josh Oliver: 203.8%
- Jalen Nailor: 132.6%
- TJ Hockenson: 99.7%
- Jordan Addison: 76.1%
- Justin Jefferson: 70.8%
The only thing I can come up with is that McCarthy spent more time with the lesser talented players while injured last season (and this season for that matter), but this would be a comical run out if it wasn’t leaving fantasy teams in the dust.
Call it stubborn, call it stupid. Call it whatever you want, but I have Jefferson ranked as a starter in all formats, even if the recent box scores suggest that he’s not worthy of starting in those crazy 32-team leagues.
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T.J. Hockenson, TE
We are getting there, but my goodness, is it a slow burn.
T.J. Hockenson has cleared nine PPR points in three straight games, a bar that feels low, but this is the hardest position to fill in our game, and it’s as much about taking a non-zero as it is getting a truly impressive number.
He didn’t appear hampered by the shin injury that cost him practice time during the week. Because his name doesn’t rhyme with Lustin Lefferson, JJ McCarthy can complete passes to him in an efficient manner (16 catches on 18 targets over his past four games).
The volume is low, and this offense is still spotty, but the G-Men own the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league (28.8 PPG), and that opens up the door for Hock to at least be serviceable for a fourth game in a row.
